Dataset Information

Decline in climate resilience of European wheat.

ABSTRACT: Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wheat in farmers' fields in most European countries after 2002-2009 based on 101,000 cultivar yield observations. Similar responses to weather were identified in cultivar trials among central European countries and southern European countries. A response diversity hotspot appeared in the trials in Slovakia, while response diversity "deserts" were identified in Czechia and Germany and for durum wheat in southern Europe. Positive responses to abundant precipitation were lacking. This assessment suggests that current breeding programs and cultivar selection practices do not sufficiently prepare for climatic uncertainty and variability. Consequently, the demand for climate resilience of staple food crops such as wheat must be better articulated. Assessments and communication of response diversity enable collective learning across supply chains. Increased awareness could foster governance of resilience through research and breeding programs, incentives, and regulation.

SUBMITTER: Kahiluoto H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6320549 | biostudies-other | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Decline in climate resilience of European wheat.

Kahiluoto Helena H Kaseva Janne J Balek Jan J Olesen Jørgen E JE Ruiz-Ramos Margarita M Gobin Anne A Kersebaum Kurt Christian KC Takáč Jozef J Ruget Francoise F Ferrise Roberto R Bezak Pavol P Capellades Gemma G Dibari Camilla C Mäkinen Hanna H Nendel Claas C Ventrella Domenico D Rodríguez Alfredo A Bindi Marco M Trnka Mirek M

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20181224 1

Food security relies on the resilience of staple food crops to climatic variability and extremes, but the climate resilience of European wheat is unknown. A diversity of responses to disturbance is considered a key determinant of resilience. The capacity of a sole crop genotype to perform well under climatic variability is limited; therefore, a set of cultivars with diverse responses to weather conditions critical to crop yield is required. Here, we show a decline in the response diversity of wh ...[more]

PMID: 30584094

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Project description:Erratic weather patterns associated with increased temperatures and decreasing rainfall pose unique challenges for wheat breeders playing a key part in the fight to ensure global food security. Within rain fed winter wheat areas of Turkey and Iran, unusual weather patterns may prevent attaining maximum potential increases in winter wheat genetic gains. This is primarily related to the fact that the yield ranking of tested genotypes may change from one year to the next. Changing weather patterns may interfere with the decisions breeders make about the ideotype(s) they should aim for during selection. To inform breeding decisions, this study aimed to optimize major traits by modeling different combinations of environments (locations and years) and by defining a probabilistic range of trait variations [phenology and plant height (PH)] that maximized grain yields (GYs; one wheat line with optimal heading and height is suggested for use as a testing line to aid selection calibration decisions). Research revealed that optimal phenology was highly related to the temperature and to rainfall at which winter wheat genotypes were exposed around heading time (20 days before and after heading). Specifically, later winter wheat genotypes were exposed to higher temperatures both before and after heading, increased rainfall at the vegetative stage, and reduced rainfall during grain filling compared to early genotypes. These variations in exposure to weather conditions resulted in shorter grain filling duration and lower GYs in long-duration genotypes. This research tested if diversity within species may increase resilience to erratic weather patterns. For the study, calculated production of a selection of five high yielding genotypes (if grown in five plots) was tested against monoculture (if only a single genotype grown in the same area) and revealed that a set of diverse genotypes with different phenologies and PHs was not beneficial. New strategies of progeny selection are discussed: narrow range of variation for phenology in families may facilitate the discovery and selection of new drought-resistant and avoidant wheat lines targeting specific locations.

Dataset Information

Decline in climate resilience of European wheat.

Publications

Decline in climate resilience of European wheat.

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