Dataset Information

"Real-time" risk models of postoperative morbidity and mortality for liver transplants.

ABSTRACT: Aim:A comprehensive description of morbidity and mortality risk factors for post liver transplant has not been available to date. In this study, we established real-time risk models of postoperative morbidities and mortality in liver transplant recipients using two Japanese nationwide databases. Methods:Data from two Japanese nationwide databases were combined and used for this study. We developed real-time prognostic models for morbidity and mortality from a derivation cohort (n = 1472) and validated the findings with an independent cohort (n = 395). Preoperative variables (C1), preoperative and intraoperative variables (C2), and all variables including postoperative morbidities within 30 days (C3) were analyzed to evaluate the independent risk factors for postoperative morbidity and mortality. Results:We established real-time risk models for morbidity and mortality. Areas under the curve (AUC) of C1 and C2 risk models for mortality were 0.74 (0.63-0.82) and 0.79 (0.69-0.86), respectively. Multivariate logistic analysis using C3 showed that hemoglobin <10 g/dL, operative time (hours), and five postoperative morbidities (prolonged ventilation >48 hours, coma >24 hours, renal dysfunction, postoperative systemic sepsis, and serum total bilirubin ?10 mg/dL) represented independent risk factors for mortality (AUC = 0.87, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.78-0.93). Conclusions:Real-time risk models of postoperative morbidities and mortality at various perioperative time points in liver transplant recipients were established. These novel approaches may improve postoperative outcomes of liver transplant recipients. Furthermore, these real-time risk models may be applicable to other surgical procedures.

SUBMITTER: Marubashi S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6345648 | biostudies-other | 2019 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

ACCESS DATA

Publications

"Real-time" risk models of postoperative morbidity and mortality for liver transplants.

Marubashi Shigeru S Ichihara Naoaki N Kakeji Yoshihiro Y Miyata Hiroaki H Taketomi Akinobu A Egawa Hiroto H Takada Yasutsugu Y Umeshita Koji K Seto Yasuyuki Y Gotoh Mitsukazu M

Annals of gastroenterological surgery 20181102 1

<h4>Aim</h4>A comprehensive description of morbidity and mortality risk factors for post liver transplant has not been available to date. In this study, we established real-time risk models of postoperative morbidities and mortality in liver transplant recipients using two Japanese nationwide databases.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from two Japanese nationwide databases were combined and used for this study. We developed real-time prognostic models for morbidity and mortality from a derivation cohort (n ...[more]

PMID: 30697613

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceUndertriaging patients who are at increased risk for postoperative complications after surgical procedures to low-acuity hospital wards (ie, floors) rather than highly vigilant intensive care units (ICUs) may be associated with risk of unrecognized decompensation and worse patient outcomes, but evidence for these associations is lacking.ObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that postoperative undertriage is associated with increased mortality and morbidity compared with risk-matched ICU admission.Design, setting, and participantsThis longitudinal cross-sectional study was conducted using data from the University of Florida Integrated Data Repository on admissions to a university hospital. Included patients were individuals aged 18 years or older who were admitted after a surgical procedure from June 1, 2014, to August 20, 2020. Data were analyzed from April through August 2021.ExposuresWard admissions were considered undertriaged if their estimated risk for hospital mortality or prolonged ICU stay (ie, ≥48 hours) was in the top quartile among all inpatient surgical procedures according to a validated machine-learning model using preoperative and intraoperative electronic health record features available at surgical procedure end time. A nearest neighbors algorithm was used to identify a risk-matched control group of ICU admissions.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcomes of hospital mortality and morbidity were compared among appropriately triaged ward admissions, undertriaged wards admissions, and a risk-matched control group of ICU admissions.ResultsAmong 12 348 postoperative ward admissions, 11 042 admissions (89.4%) were appropriately triaged (5927 [53.7%] women; median [IQR] age, 59 [44-70] years) and 1306 admissions (10.6%) were undertriaged and matched with a control group of 2452 ICU admissions. The undertriaged group, compared with the control group, had increased median [IQR] age (64 [54-74] years vs 62 [50-73] years; P = .001) and increased proportions of women (649 [49.7%] women vs 1080 [44.0%] women; P < .001) and admitted patients with do not resuscitate orders before first surgical procedure (53 admissions [4.1%] vs 27 admissions [1.1%]); P < .001); 207 admissions that were undertriaged (15.8%) had subsequent ICU admission. In the validation cohort, hospital mortality and prolonged ICU stay estimations had areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.92 (95% CI, 0.91-0.93) and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.92-0.92), respectively. The undertriaged group, compared with the control group, had similar incidence of prolonged mechanical ventilation (32 admissions [2.5%] vs 53 admissions [2.2%]; P = .60), decreased median (IQR) total costs for admission ($26 900 [$18 400-$42 300] vs $32 700 [$22 700-$48 500]; P < .001), increased median (IQR) hospital length of stay (8.1 [5.1-13.6] days vs 6.0 [3.3-9.3] days, P < .001), and increased incidence of hospital mortality (19 admissions [1.5%] vs 17 admissions [0.7%]; P = .04), discharge to hospice (23 admissions [1.8%] vs 14 admissions [0.6%]; P < .001), unplanned intubation (45 admissions [3.4%] vs 49 admissions [2.0%]; P = .01), and acute kidney injury (341 admissions [26.1%] vs 477 admissions [19.5%]; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceThis study found that admitted patients at increased risk for postoperative complications who were undertriaged to hospital wards had increased mortality and morbidity compared with a risk-matched control group of admissions to ICUs. Postoperative undertriage was identifiable using automated preoperative and intraoperative data as features in real-time machine-learning models.

Project description:(1) Purpose: As it is known, patients with liver cirrhosis (LC) undergoing colon surgery or hernia surgery have high perioperative morbidity and mortality. However, data about patients with LC undergoing small bowel surgery is lacking. This study aimed to analyze the morbidity and mortality of patients with LC after small bowel surgery in order to determine predictive risk factors for a poor outcome. (2) Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed of all patients undergoing small bowel surgery between January 2002 and July 2018 and identified 76 patients with LC. Postoperative complications were analyzed using the classification of Dindo/Clavien (D/C) and further subdivided (hemorrhage, pulmonary complication, wound healing disturbances, renal failure). A total of 38 possible predictive factors underwent univariate and multivariate analyses for different postoperative complications and in-hospital mortality. (3) Results: Postoperative complications [D/C grade ≥ II] occurred in 90.8% of patients and severe complications (D/C grade ≥ IIIB) in 53.9% of patients. Nine patients (11.8%) died during the postoperative course. Predictive factors for overall complications were "additional surgery" (OR 5.3) and "bowel anastomosis" (OR 5.6). For postoperative mortality, we identified the model of end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (OR 1.3) and portal hypertension (OR 5.8) as predictors. The most common complication was hemorrhage, followed by pulmonary complications, hydropic decompensation, renal failure, and wound healing disturbances. The most common risk factors for those complications were portal hypertension (PH), poor liver function, emergency or additional surgery, ascites, and high ASA score. (4) Conclusions: LC has a devastating influence on patients' outcomes after small bowel resection. PH, poor liver function, high ASA score, and additional or emergency surgery as well as ascites were significant risk factors for worse outcomes. Therefore, PH should be treated before surgery whenever possible. Expansion of the operation should be avoided whenever possible and in case of at least moderate preoperative ascites, the creation of an anastomotic ostomy should be evaluated to prevent leakages.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Several nuclear imaging methods may predict postoperative liver function and outcome, but none has achieved recommendations in clinical guidelines. The purpose of this systematic review was to summarize the existing knowledge on this topic. METHODS:MEDLINE and Web of Science were searched for studies investigating nuclear medicine imaging methods for the prediction of postoperative liver function in patients undergoing localized, liver-directed treatments. The postoperative endpoints were clinical outcome (morbidity and mortality) as well as measures of postoperative liver function, e.g., liver function assessed by biochemical tests or nuclear imaging. RESULTS:A total of 1352 references were identified, of which 82 fulfilled the eligibility criteria and were included in the review. Most studies (n = 63) were retrospective studies. The vast majority of studies assessed [99mTc]Tc-galactosyl serum albumin (GSA) (n = 57) and [99mTc]Tc-mebrofenin (n = 19). Liver resection was entirely or partly major (involved at least three segments) in 78 reports. There were notable variations in the research methodology, e.g., image acquisition, imaging variables, and endpoints. Thirty-seven studies reported on postoperative mortality, of which most reported descriptive data at the patient level. Of the four reports that performed multivariate analyses, two showed significant predictive results of isotope-based preoperative tests. Fifty-two papers presented data on postoperative liver failure. Multivariate predictive analyses were performed in eighteen trials, of which fifteen showed the significant value of nuclear medicine tests. CONCLUSION:There is sparse evidence supporting the significant value of nuclear medicine imaging methods in predicting postoperative mortality. In contrast, a notable number of trials showed a significant prediction of liver failure in multivariate analyses. The research methodology was heterogeneous and exploratory in most trials. Documentation of nuclear medicine tests in this setting awaits the results of properly designed, prospective trials with the standardization of both the nuclear medicine test and endpoints.

Dataset Information

"Real-time" risk models of postoperative morbidity and mortality for liver transplants.

Publications

"Real-time" risk models of postoperative morbidity and mortality for liver transplants.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets