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Challenges in modelling the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections in Sweden.

ABSTRACT: BackgroundSweden has a low HIV prevalence. However, among new HIV diagnoses in 2016, the proportion of late presenters and migrants was high (59% and 81%, respectively). This poses challenges in estimating the proportion of undiagnosed persons living with HIV (PLHIV).AimTo estimate the proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV in Sweden comparing two models with different demands on data availability and modelling expertise.MethodsAn individual-based stochastic simulation model of HIV positive populations (SSOPHIE) and the incidence method of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) HIV Modelling Tool were applied to clinical, surveillance and migration data from Sweden 1980-2016.ResultsSSOPHIE estimated that the proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV in 2013 was 26% (n = 2,100; 90% plausibility range (PR): 900-5,000) for all PLHIV, 17% (n = 600; 90% PR: 100-2,000) for men who have sex with men (MSM), 35% in male (n = 300; 90% PR: 200-700) and 34% in female (n = 400; 90% PR: 200-800) migrants from sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). The estimates for the ECDC model in 2013 were 21% (n = 2,013; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1,831-2,189) for all PLHIV, 15% (n = 369; 95% CI: 299-434) for MSM and 21% (n = 530; 95% CI: 436-632) for migrants from SSA.ConclusionsThe proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV in Sweden is uncertain. SSOPHIE estimates had wide PR. The ECDC model estimates were unreliable because migration was not accounted for. Better migration data and estimation methods are required to obtain reliable estimates of proportions of undiagnosed PLHIV in similar settings.

SUBMITTER: Andersson E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6462786 | biostudies-other | 2019 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Challenges in modelling the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections in Sweden.

Andersson Emmi E Nakagawa Fumiyo F van Sighem Ard A Axelsson Maria M Phillips Andrew N AN Sönnerborg Anders A Albert Jan J

Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin 20190401 14

BackgroundSweden has a low HIV prevalence. However, among new HIV diagnoses in 2016, the proportion of late presenters and migrants was high (59% and 81%, respectively). This poses challenges in estimating the proportion of undiagnosed persons living with HIV (PLHIV).AimTo estimate the proportion of undiagnosed PLHIV in Sweden comparing two models with different demands on data availability and modelling expertise.MethodsAn individual-based stochastic simulation model of HIV positive populations ...[more]

PMID: 30968824

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Project description:BackgroundGiven the great efforts put into the strategic objective of reducing the proportion of HIV-infected patients that are undiagnosed, the aim of the present study was to review the temporal trends between 1997 and 2016 for median estimates of infection duration and median CD4 count at diagnosis for the main patient origins in French Guiana.MethodsCD4 cell count at HIV sero-conversion and square root of CD4 cell decline were obtained using the CD4 decline in a cohort of HIV-infected persons in the UK, fitting random effect (slope and intercept) multilevel linear regression models. Multivariate analysis used robust regression for modeling the delay between estimated HIV seroconversion and diagnosis and quantile regression for CD4 at HIV diagnosis.ResultsThe median interval between the estimated HIV seroconversion and HIV diagnosis was 8 years for patients fromBrazil, 4.5 years for those from Haiti, 6.6 years for those from Suriname, 3.3 years for patients from Guyana, and 3.1 years for French patients. A simple robust regression model with French patients as reference group adjusting for sex and age at the time of diagnosis showed that the interval was significantly longer for Brazilian (? = +3.7 years, P = 0.001), Surinamese (? = +4.2 years, P<0.0001), Haitian origins (? = +1.5 years, P = 0.049) but not for those originating from Guyana (? = -0.03 years, P = 0.9); Men independently had a longer interval than women (? = +3.5 years, P<0.0001).ConclusionsDespite great efforts in French Guiana regarding HIV testing both in terms of diversification and intensification we still need to tailor the offer to better reach the communities in need. These results should help authorities scale up and optimize initiatives to reduce the proportion of patients who are unaware of their infection. They also raise the question of the role of stigma and discrimination as a barrier to HIV testing in small communities, and further emphasize the importance of reducing it.

Project description:IntroductionWe determined the contribution of undiagnosed HIV to new infections among gay and bisexual men (GBM) over a 12-year period in Australia where there has been increasing focus on improving testing and HIV treatment coverage.MethodsWe generated annual estimates for each step of the HIV cascade and the number of new HIV infections for GBM in Australia over 2004 to 2015 using relevant national data. Using Bayesian melding we then fitted a quantitative model to the cascade and incidence estimates to infer relative transmission coefficients associated with being undiagnosed, diagnosed and not on ART, on ART with unsuppressed virus, or on ART with suppressed virus.ResultsBetween 2004 and 2015, we estimated the percentage of GBM with HIV in Australia who were unaware of their status to have decreased from 14.5% to 7.5%. During the same period, there was a substantial increase in the number and proportion of GBM living with HIV on treatment and with suppressed virus, with the number of virally suppressed GBM increasing from around 3900 (30.2% of all GBM living with HIV) in 2004 to around 14,000 (73.7% of all GBM living with HIV) in 2015. Despite the increase in viral suppression, the annual number of new infections rose from around 660 to around 760 over this period. Our results have a wide range due to the uncertainty in the cascade estimates and transmission coefficients. Nevertheless, undiagnosed GBM increasingly appear to contribute to new infections. The proportion of new infections attributable to undiagnosed GBM almost doubled from 33% in 2004 to 59% in 2015. Only a small proportion (<7%) originated from GBM with suppressed virus.DiscussionOur study suggests that an increase in HIV treatment coverage in Australia has reduced the overall risk of HIV transmission from people living with HIV. However, the proportion of infections and the rate of transmission from undiagnosed GBM has increased substantially. These findings highlight the importance of HIV testing and intensified prevention for Australian GBM at high risk of HIV.

Project description:BackgroundHIV prevalence data among pregnant women have been critical to estimating HIV trends and geographical patterns of HIV in many African countries. Although antenatal HIV prevalence data are known to be biased representations of HIV prevalence in the general population, mathematical models have made various adjustments to control for known sources of bias, including the effect of HIV on fertility, the age profile of pregnant women and sexual experience.Methods and findingsWe assessed whether assumptions about antenatal bias affect conclusions about trends and geographical variation in HIV prevalence, using simulated datasets generated by an agent-based model of HIV and fertility in South Africa. Results suggest that even when controlling for age and other previously-considered sources of bias, antenatal bias in South Africa has not been constant over time, and trends in bias differ substantially by age. Differences in the average duration of infection explain much of this variation. We propose an HIV duration-adjusted measure of antenatal bias that is more stable, which yields higher estimates of HIV incidence in recent years and at older ages. Simpler measures of antenatal bias, which are not age-adjusted, yield estimates of HIV prevalence and incidence that are too high in the early stages of the HIV epidemic, and that are less precise. Antenatal bias in South Africa is substantially greater in urban areas than in rural areas.ConclusionsAge-standardized approaches to defining antenatal bias are likely to improve precision in model-based estimates, and further recency adjustments increase estimates of HIV incidence in recent years and at older ages. Incompletely adjusting for changing antenatal bias may explain why previous model estimates overstated the early HIV burden in South Africa. New assays to estimate the fraction of HIV-positive pregnant women who are recently infected could play an important role in better estimating antenatal bias.

Project description:BackgroundThe population infected with HIV is getting older and these people will increasingly develop age-related non-communicable diseases (NCDs). We aimed to quantify the scale of the change and the implications for HIV care in the Netherlands in the future.MethodsWe constructed an individual-based model of the ageing HIV-infected population, which followed patients on HIV treatment as they age, develop NCDs-including cardiovascular disease (hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, myocardial infarctions, and strokes), diabetes, chronic kidney disease, osteoporosis, and non-AIDS malignancies-and start co-medication for these diseases. The model was parameterised by use of data for 10 278 patients from the national Dutch ATHENA cohort between 1996 and 2010. We made projections up to 2030.FindingsOur model suggests that the median age of HIV-infected patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) will increase from 43·9 years in 2010 to 56·6 in 2030, with the proportion of HIV-infected patients aged 50 years or older increasing from 28% in 2010 to 73% in 2030. In 2030, we predict that 84% of HIV-infected patients will have at least one NCD, up from 29% in 2010, with 28% of HIV-infected patients in 2030 having three or more NCDs. 54% of HIV-infected patients will be prescribed co-medications in 2030, compared with 13% in 2010, with 20% taking three or more co-medications. Most of this change will be driven by increasing prevalence of cardiovascular disease and associated drugs. Because of contraindications and drug-drug interactions, in 2030, 40% of patients could have complications with the currently recommended first-line HIV regimens.InterpretationThe profile of patients in the Netherlands infected with HIV is changing, with increasing numbers of older patients with multiple morbidities. These changes mean that, in the near future, HIV care will increasingly need to draw on a wide range of medical disciplines, in addition to evidence-based screening and monitoring protocols to ensure continued high-quality care. These findings are based on a large dataset of HIV-infected patients in the Netherlands, but we believe that the overall patterns will be repeated elsewhere in Europe and North America. The implications of such a trend for care of HIV-infected patients in high-burden countries in Africa could present a particular challenge.FundingMedical Research Council, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Rush Foundation, and Netherlands Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport.

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Challenges in modelling the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections in Sweden.

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Challenges in modelling the proportion of undiagnosed HIV infections in Sweden.

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