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Modelling the impact of a Schistosoma mansoni vaccine and mass drug administration to achieve morbidity control and transmission elimination.

ABSTRACT: Mass drug administration (MDA) is, and has been, the principal method for the control of the schistosome helminths. Using MDA only is unlikely to eliminate the infection in areas of high transmission and the implementation of other measures such as reduced water contact improved hygiene and sanitation are required. Ideally a vaccine is needed to ensure long term benefits and eliminate the need for repeated drug treatment since infection does not seem to induce lasting protective immunity. Currently, a candidate vaccine is under trial in a baboon animal model, and very encouraging results have been reported. In this paper, we develop an individual-based stochastic model to evaluate the effect of a vaccine with similar properties in humans to those recorded in baboons in achieving the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of morbidity control and elimination as a public health problem in populations living in a variety of transmission settings. MDA and vaccination assuming different durations of protection and coverage levels, alone or in combination, are examined as treatment strategies to reach the WHO goals of the elimination of morbidity and mortality in the coming decade. We find that the efficacy of a vaccine as an adjunct or main control tool will depend critically on a number of factors including the average duration of protection it provides, vaccine efficacy and the baseline prevalence prior to immunization. In low prevalence settings, simulations suggest that the WHO goals can be achieved for all treatment strategies. In moderate prevalence settings, a vaccine that provides 5 years of protection, can achieve both goals within 15 years of treatment. In high prevalence settings, by vaccinating at age 1, 6 and 11 we can achieve the morbidity control with a probability of nearly 0.89 but we cannot achieve elimination as a public health problem goal. A combined vaccination and MDA treatment plan has the greatest chance of achieving the WHO goals in the shorter term.

SUBMITTER: Kura K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6550388 | biostudies-other | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Modelling the impact of a Schistosoma mansoni vaccine and mass drug administration to achieve morbidity control and transmission elimination.

Kura Klodeta K Truscott James E JE Toor Jaspreet J Anderson Roy M RM

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20190605 6

Mass drug administration (MDA) is, and has been, the principal method for the control of the schistosome helminths. Using MDA only is unlikely to eliminate the infection in areas of high transmission and the implementation of other measures such as reduced water contact improved hygiene and sanitation are required. Ideally a vaccine is needed to ensure long term benefits and eliminate the need for repeated drug treatment since infection does not seem to induce lasting protective immunity. Curren ...[more]

PMID: 31166956

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Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) has set elimination (interruption of transmission) as an end goal for schistosomiasis. However, there is currently little guidance on the monitoring and evaluation strategy required once very low prevalence levels have been reached to determine whether elimination or resurgence of the disease will occur after stopping mass drug administration (MDA) treatment.MethodsWe employ a stochastic individual-based model of Schistosoma mansoni transmission and MDA impact to determine a prevalence threshold, i.e. prevalence of infection, which can be used to determine whether elimination or resurgence will occur after stopping treatment with a given probability. Simulations are run for treatment programmes with varying probabilities of achieving elimination and for settings where adults harbour low to high burdens of infection. Prevalence is measured based on using a single Kato-Katz on two samples per individual. We calculate positive predictive values (PPV) using PPV???0.9 as a reliable measure corresponding to???90% certainty of elimination. We analyse when post-treatment surveillance should be carried out to predict elimination. We also determine the number of individuals across a single community (of 500-1000 individuals) that should be sampled to predict elimination.ResultsWe find that a prevalence threshold of 1% by single Kato-Katz on two samples per individual is optimal for predicting elimination at two years (or later) after the last round of MDA using a sample size of 200 individuals across the entire community (from all ages). This holds regardless of whether the adults have a low or high burden of infection relative to school-aged children.ConclusionsUsing a prevalence threshold of 0.5% is sufficient for surveillance six months after the last round of MDA. However, as such a low prevalence can be difficult to measure in the field using Kato-Katz, we recommend using 1% two years after the last round of MDA. Higher prevalence thresholds of 2% or 5% can be used but require waiting over four years for post-treatment surveillance. Although, for treatment programmes where elimination is highly likely, these higher thresholds could be used sooner. Additionally, switching to more sensitive diagnostic techniques, will allow for a higher prevalence threshold to be employed.

Project description:BackgroundWorld Health Organization guidelines recommend preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel to control morbidity due to schistosomiasis. The primary aim of this cross-sectional study was to determine if 4 years of annual mass drug administration (MDA) in primary and secondary schools lowered potential markers of morbidity in infected children 1 year after the final MDA compared to infected children prior to initial MDA intervention.MethodsBetween 2012 and 2016 all students in two primary and three secondary schools within three kilometers of Lake Victoria in western Kenya received annual mass praziquantel administration. To evaluate potential changes in morbidity we measured height, weight, mid-upper arm circumference, hemoglobin levels, abdominal ultrasound, and quality of life in children in these schools. This study compared two cross-sectional samples of Schistosoma mansoni egg-positive children: one at baseline and one at year five, 1 year after the fourth annual MDA. Data were analyzed for all ages (6-18 years old) and stratified by primary (6-12 years old) and secondary (12-18 years old) school groups.ResultsThe prevalence of multiple potential morbidity markers did not differ significantly between the egg-positive participants at baseline and those at 5 years by Mann Whitney nonparametric analysis and Fisher's exact test for continuous and categorical data, respectively. There was a small but significantly higher score in school-related quality of life assessment by year five compared to baseline by Mann Whitney analysis (P = 0.048) in 13-18 year olds where malaria-negative. However, anemia was not positively impacted by four annual rounds of MDA, but registered a significant negative outcome.ConclusionsWe did not detect differences in morbidity markers measured in a population of those infected or re-infected after multiple MDA. This could have been due to their relative insensitivity or a failure of MDA to prevent morbidity among those who remain infected. High malaria transmission in this area and/or a lack of suitable methods to measure the more subtle functional morbidities caused by schistosomiasis could be a factor. Further research is needed to identify and develop well-defined, easily quantifiable S. mansoni morbidity markers for this age group.

Project description:BackgroundMass drug administration for elimination of Plasmodium falciparum malaria is recommended by WHO in some settings. We used consensus modelling to understand how to optimise the effects of mass drug administration in areas with low malaria transmission.MethodsWe collaborated with researchers doing field trials to establish a standard intervention scenario and standard transmission setting, and we input these parameters into four previously published models. We then varied the number of rounds of mass drug administration, coverage, duration, timing, importation of infection, and pre-administration transmission levels. The outcome of interest was the percentage reduction in annual mean prevalence of P falciparum parasite rate as measured by PCR in the third year after the final round of mass drug administration.FindingsThe models predicted differing magnitude of the effects of mass drug administration, but consensus answers were reached for several factors. Mass drug administration was predicted to reduce transmission over a longer timescale than accounted for by the prophylactic effect alone. Percentage reduction in transmission was predicted to be higher and last longer at lower baseline transmission levels. Reduction in transmission resulting from mass drug administration was predicted to be temporary, and in the absence of scale-up of other interventions, such as vector control, transmission would return to pre-administration levels. The proportion of the population treated in a year was a key determinant of simulated effectiveness, irrespective of whether people are treated through high coverage in a single round or new individuals are reached by implementation of several rounds. Mass drug administration was predicted to be more effective if continued over 2 years rather than 1 year, and if done at the time of year when transmission is lowest.InterpretationMass drug administration has the potential to reduce transmission for a limited time, but is not an effective replacement for existing vector control. Unless elimination is achieved, mass drug administration has to be repeated regularly for sustained effect.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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Modelling the impact of a Schistosoma mansoni vaccine and mass drug administration to achieve morbidity control and transmission elimination.

Publications

Modelling the impact of a Schistosoma mansoni vaccine and mass drug administration to achieve morbidity control and transmission elimination.

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