Dataset Information

Delimiting a species' geographic range using posterior sampling and computational geometry.

ABSTRACT: Accurate delimitation of the geographic range of a species is important for control of biological invasions, conservation of threatened species, and understanding species range dynamics under environmental change. However, estimating range boundaries is challenging because monitoring methods are imperfect, the area that might contain individuals is often incompletely surveyed, and species may have patchy distributions. In these circumstances, large areas can be surveyed without finding individuals despite occupancy extending beyond surveyed areas, resulting in underestimation of range limits. We developed a delimitation method that can be applied with imperfect survey data and patchy distributions. The approach is to construct polygons indicative of the geographic range of a species. Each polygon is associated with a specific probability such that each interior point of the polygon has at least that posterior probability of being interior to the true boundary according to a Bayesian model. The method uses the posterior distribution of latent quantities derived from an agent-based Bayesian model and calculates the posterior distribution of the range as a derived quantity from Markov chain Monte Carlo samples. An application of this method described here informed the Australian campaign to eradicate red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta).

SUBMITTER: Keith JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6586837 | biostudies-other | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Delimiting a species' geographic range using posterior sampling and computational geometry.

Keith Jonathan M JM Spring Daniel D Kompas Tom T

Scientific reports 20190620 1

Accurate delimitation of the geographic range of a species is important for control of biological invasions, conservation of threatened species, and understanding species range dynamics under environmental change. However, estimating range boundaries is challenging because monitoring methods are imperfect, the area that might contain individuals is often incompletely surveyed, and species may have patchy distributions. In these circumstances, large areas can be surveyed without finding individua ...[more]

PMID: 31222114

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Project description:Geographic range size is often conceptualized as a fixed attribute of a species and treated as such for the purposes of quantification of extinction risk; species occupying smaller geographic ranges are assumed to have a higher risk of extinction, all else being equal. However many species are mobile, and their movements range from relatively predictable to-and-fro migrations to complex irregular movements shown by nomadic species. These movements can lead to substantial temporary expansion and contraction of geographic ranges, potentially to levels which may pose an extinction risk. By linking occurrence data with environmental conditions at the time of observations of nomadic species, we modeled the dynamic distributions of 43 arid-zone nomadic bird species across the Australian continent for each month over 11 years and calculated minimum range size and extent of fluctuation in geographic range size from these models. There was enormous variability in predicted spatial distribution over time; 10 species varied in estimated geographic range size by more than an order of magnitude, and 2 species varied by >2 orders of magnitude. During times of poor environmental conditions, several species not currently classified as globally threatened contracted their ranges to very small areas, despite their normally large geographic range size. This finding raises questions about the adequacy of conventional assessments of extinction risk based on static geographic range size (e.g., IUCN Red Listing). Climate change is predicted to affect the pattern of resource fluctuations across much of the southern hemisphere, where nomadism is the dominant form of animal movement, so it is critical we begin to understand the consequences of this for accurate threat assessment of nomadic species. Our approach provides a tool for discovering spatial dynamics in highly mobile species and can be used to unlock valuable information for improved extinction risk assessment and conservation planning.

Dataset Information

Delimiting a species' geographic range using posterior sampling and computational geometry.

Publications

Delimiting a species' geographic range using posterior sampling and computational geometry.

Similar Datasets

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