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Refining the Association Between Body Mass Index and Atrial Fibrillation: G-Formula and Restricted Mean Survival Times.

ABSTRACT: Background Previous studies assessing the association between body mass index (BMI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) did not account for time-varying covariates, which may be affected by previous BMI. We illustrate how the g-formula can account for time-varying confounding. Methods and Results We included 4392 participants from the Framingham Heart Study who were AF free at ages 45 to 55 years, and followed them for up to 20 years. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) comparing time-varying nonobese versus obese with Cox models. We used the g-formula to compare nonobese versus obese and 10% annual decrease in BMI (until normal weight is reached) versus natural course. We estimated HRs and differences in restricted mean survival times, the mean difference in time alive and AF free. We adjusted for sex, age, and time-varying risk factors. Cox models indicated that nonobese participants had a decreased rate of AF versus obese participants (HR, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.72-0.97). G-formula analyses comparing everyone had they been nonobese versus obese yielded stronger associations (HR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.58-0.91). The restricted mean survival time was 19.22 years had everyone been nonobese and 19.03 years had everyone been obese (difference, 2.25 months; 95% CI, -0.66 to 5.16). When assessing a 10% annual decrease in BMI, the association was weaker (HR 0.96; 95% CI, 0.86-1.08). Conclusions Decreased BMI was associated with a lower rate of AF after accounting for time-varying covariates that depend on previous exposure using the g-formula, which Cox models cannot accommodate. Absolute measures like the restricted mean survival time difference offer context to relative measures of association.

SUBMITTER: Conner SC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6759878 | biostudies-other | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Refining the Association Between Body Mass Index and Atrial Fibrillation: G-Formula and Restricted Mean Survival Times.

Conner Sarah C SC Lodi Sara S Lunetta Kathryn L KL Casas Juan P JP Lubitz Steven A SA Ellinor Patrick T PT Anderson Christopher D CD Huang Qiuxi Q Coleman Justin J White Wendy B WB Benjamin Emelia J EJ Trinquart Ludovic L

Journal of the American Heart Association 20190808 16

Background Previous studies assessing the association between body mass index (BMI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) did not account for time-varying covariates, which may be affected by previous BMI. We illustrate how the g-formula can account for time-varying confounding. Methods and Results We included 4392 participants from the Framingham Heart Study who were AF free at ages 45 to 55 years, and followed them for up to 20 years. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) comparing time-varying nonobese ver ...[more]

PMID: 31390924

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Project description:Purpose: The aim of the study was to assess the relationship of dehydration, body mass index (BMI) and other indices with the occurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in heart failure (HF) patients. Methods: The study included 113 patients [median age 64 years; 57.52% male] hospitalized due to HF. Baseline demographics, body mass analysis, echocardiographic results, key cardiopulmonary exercise test (CPET) parameters, 6 min walk distance (6MWD) and Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) score were assessed. Results: Of all patients, 23 (20.35%) had AF, and 90 (79.65%) had sinus rhythm (SR). Patients with AF were older (med. 66 vs. 64 years; p = 0.039), with higher BMI (32.02 vs. 28.51 kg/m2; p = 0.017) and percentage of fat content (37.0 vs. 27.9%, p = 0.014). They were more dehydrated, with a lower percentage of total body water (TBW%) (45.7 vs. 50.0%; p = 0.022). Clinically, patients with AF had more often higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) class (III vs. II; p < 0.001), shorter 6MWD (median 292.35 vs. 378.4 m; p = 0.001) and a lower KCCQ overall summary score (52.60 vs. 73.96 points; p = 0.002). Patients with AF had significantly lower exercise capacity as measured by peak oxygen consumption (peak VO2) (0.92 vs. 1.26 mL/min, p = 0.016), peak VO2/kg (11 vs. 15 mL/kg/min; p < 0.001), and percentage of predicted VO2max (pp-peak VO2) (62.5 vs 70.0; p=0.010). We also found VE/VCO2 (med. 33.85 vs. 32.20; p = 0.049) to be higher and peak oxygen pulse (8.5 vs. 11 mL/beat; p = 0.038) to be lower in patients with AF than in patients without AF. In a multiple logistic regression model higher BMI (OR 1.23 per unit increase, p < 0.001) and higher left atrial volume index (LAVI) (OR 1.07 per unit increase, p = 0.03), lower tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE) (OR 0.74 per unit increase, p =0.03) and lower TBW% in body mass analysis (OR 0.90 per unit increase, p =0.03) were independently related to AF in patients with HF. Conclusion: Increased volume of left atrium and right ventricular systolic dysfunction are well-known predictors of AF occurrence in patients with HF, but hydration status and increased body mass also seem to be important factors of AF in HF patients.

Dataset Information

Refining the Association Between Body Mass Index and Atrial Fibrillation: G-Formula and Restricted Mean Survival Times.

Publications

Refining the Association Between Body Mass Index and Atrial Fibrillation: G-Formula and Restricted Mean Survival Times.

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