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Predicting Disease Progression in Patients with Bicuspid Aortic Stenosis Using Mathematical Modeling.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to develop a mathematical model to predict the progression of aortic stenosis (AS) and aortic dilatation (AD) in bicuspid aortic valve patients. Bicuspid AS patients who underwent at least two serial echocardiograms from 2005 to 2017 were enrolled. Mathematical modeling was undertaken to assess (1) the non-linearity associated with the disease progression and (2) the importance of first visit echocardiogram in predicting the overall prognosis. Models were trained in 126 patients and validated in an additional cohort of 43 patients. AS was best described by a logistic function of time. Patients who showed an increase in mean pressure gradient (MPG) at their first visit relative to baseline (denoted as rapid progressors) showed a significantly faster disease progression overall. The core model parameter reflecting the rate of disease progression, α, was 0.012/month in the rapid progressors and 0.0032/month in the slow progressors (p < 0.0001). AD progression was best described by a simple linear function, with an increment rate of 0.019 mm/month. Validation of models in a separate prospective cohort yielded comparable R squared statistics for predicted outcomes. Our novel disease progression model for bicuspid AS significantly increased prediction power by including subsequent follow-up visit information rather than baseline information alone.

SUBMITTER: Kim D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6780906 | biostudies-other | 2019 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Predicting Disease Progression in Patients with Bicuspid Aortic Stenosis Using Mathematical Modeling.

Kim Darae D Chae Dongwoo D Shim Chi Young CY Cho In-Jeong IJ Hong Geu-Ru GR Park Kyungsoo K Ha Jong-Won JW Ha Jong-Won JW

Journal of clinical medicine 20190824 9

We aimed to develop a mathematical model to predict the progression of aortic stenosis (AS) and aortic dilatation (AD) in bicuspid aortic valve patients. Bicuspid AS patients who underwent at least two serial echocardiograms from 2005 to 2017 were enrolled. Mathematical modeling was undertaken to assess (1) the non-linearity associated with the disease progression and (2) the importance of first visit echocardiogram in predicting the overall prognosis. Models were trained in 126 patients and val ...[more]

PMID: 31450580

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:Bicuspid aortic valve, characterized by valve malformation and risk for aortopathy, displays profound alteration in systolic aortic outflow and wall shear stress distribution. The present study performed 4-dimensional flow magnetic resonance imaging in patients with bicuspid aortic valve with right-left cusp fusion, focusing on the impact of valve function on hemodynamic status within the ascending aorta. METHODS:Four-dimensional flow magnetic resonance imaging was performed in 50 subjects with right-left bicuspid aortic valve and 15 age- and aortic size-matched controls with tricuspid aortic valve. Patients with bicuspid aortic valve were categorized into 3 groups according to their aortic valve function as follows: bicuspid aortic valve with no more than mild aortic valve dysfunction (bicuspid aortic valve control, n = 20), bicuspid aortic valve with severe aortic insufficiency (n = 15), and bicuspid aortic valve with severe aortic stenosis (n = 15). RESULTS:All patients with right-left bicuspid aortic valve exhibited peak wall shear stress at the right-anterior position of the ascending aorta (bicuspid aortic valve vs trileaflet aortic valve at the right-anterior position: 0.91 ± 0.23 N/m2 vs 0.43 ± 0.12 N/m2, P < .001) with no distinct alteration between bicuspid aortic valve with severe aortic insufficiency and bicuspid aortic valve with severe aortic stenosis. The predominance of dilatation involving the tubular ascending aorta (82%, type 2 aortopathy) persisted, with or without valve dysfunction. Compared with bicuspid aortic valve control subjects, the bicuspid aortic valve with severe aortic insufficiency group displayed universally elevated wall shear stress (0.75 ± 0.12 N/m2 vs 0.57 ± 0.09 N/m2, P < .01) in the ascending aorta, which was associated with elevated cardiac stroke volume (P < .05). The bicuspid aortic valve with severe aortic stenosis group showed elevated flow eccentricity in the form of significantly increased standard deviation of circumferential wall shear stress, which correlated with markedly increased peak aortic valve velocity (P < .01). CONCLUSIONS:The location of peak aortic wall shear stress and type of aortopathy remained homogeneous among patients with right-left bicuspid aortic valve irrespective of valve dysfunction. Severe aortic insufficiency or stenosis resulted in further elevated aortic wall shear stress and exaggerated flow eccentricity.

Project description:ImportanceThe outcomes of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) in low-risk patients with bicuspid aortic valve stenosis have not been studied in a large scale, multicentered, prospective fashion.ObjectiveTo evaluate the procedural safety, efficacy, and 30-day outcomes of TAVR in patients with bicuspid aortic stenosis at low surgical risk.Design, setting, and participantsThe Low Risk Bicuspid Study is a prospective, single-arm trial study with inclusion/exclusion criteria developed from the Evolut Low Risk Randomized Trial. Follow-up is planned for 10 years. Patients underwent TAVR at 25 centers in the United States who were also participating in the Evolut Low Risk Randomized Trial from December 2018 to October 2019. Eligible patients had severe bicuspid aortic valve stenosis and met American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology guideline indications for aortic valve replacement.InterventionsPatients underwent attempted implant of an Evolut or Evolut PRO transcatheter aortic valve, with valve size based on annular measurements.Main outcomes and measuresThe prespecified primary end point was the incidence of all-cause mortality or disabling stroke at 30 days. The prespecified primary efficacy end point was device success defined as the absence of procedural mortality, the correct position of 1 bioprosthetic heart valve in the proper anatomical location, and the absence of more than mild aortic regurgitation postprocedure.ResultsA total of 150 patients underwent an attempted implant. Baseline characteristics include mean age of 70.3 (5.5) years, 48.0% female (n = 72), and a mean Society of Thoracic Surgeons score of 1.4 (0.6%). Most patients (136; 90.7%) had Sievers type I valve morphology. The incidence of all-cause mortality or disabling stroke was 1.3% (95% CI, 0.3%-5.3%) at 30 days. The device success rate was 95.3% (95% CI, 90.5%-98.1%). At 30 days, the mean (SD) AV gradient was 7.6 (3.7) mm Hg and effective orifice area was 2.3 (0.7) cm2. A new permanent pacemaker was implanted in 22 patients (15.1%). No patients had greater than mild paravalvular leak.Conclusions and relevanceTranscatheter aortic valve replacement in low-surgical risk patients with bicuspid aortic valve stenosis achieved favorable 30-day results, with low rates of death and stroke and high device success rate.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03635424.

Project description:BackgroundBicuspid aortic valve (BAV) disease is a congenital defect that affects 0.5% to 1.2% of the population and is associated with comorbidities including ascending aortic dilation and calcific aortic valve stenosis. To date, although a few causal genes have been identified, the genetic basis for the vast majority of BAV cases remains unknown, likely pointing to complex genetic heterogeneity underlying this phenotype. Identifying genetic pathways versus individual gene variants may provide an avenue for uncovering additional BAV causes and consequent comorbidities.MethodsWe performed genome-wide association Discovery and Replication Studies using cohorts of 2131 patients with BAV and 2728 control patients, respectively, which identified primary cilia genes as associated with the BAV phenotype. Genome-wide association study hits were prioritized based on P value and validated through in vivo loss of function and rescue experiments, 3-dimensional immunohistochemistry, histology, and morphometric analyses during aortic valve morphogenesis and in aged animals in multiple species. Consequences of these genetic perturbations on cilia-dependent pathways were analyzed by Western and immunohistochemistry analyses, and assessment of aortic valve and cardiac function were determined by echocardiography.ResultsGenome-wide association study hits revealed an association between BAV and genetic variation in human primary cilia. The most associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms were identified in or near genes that are important in regulating ciliogenesis through the exocyst, a shuttling complex that chaperones cilia cargo to the membrane. Genetic dismantling of the exocyst resulted in impaired ciliogenesis, disrupted ciliogenic signaling and a spectrum of cardiac defects in zebrafish, and aortic valve defects including BAV, valvular stenosis, and valvular calcification in murine models.ConclusionsThese data support the exocyst as required for normal ciliogenesis during aortic valve morphogenesis and implicate disruption of ciliogenesis and its downstream pathways as contributory to BAV and associated comorbidities in humans.

Project description:BackgroundBicuspid aortic valve (BAV) is common congenital malformation, bicuspid aortic stenosis accounts for a substantial proportion of patients with aortic valve stenosis (AS). Bicuspid AS are more likely to have aortic dilatation with slightly less elliptical annuli, which might lead to paravalvular aortic valve regurgitation (AR) and permanent pacemaker implantation (PPM) after TAVI with higher mortality. Our study aims to understand the therapeutic efficacy and safety of transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) with a supra-annular structure-based sizing strategy in Chinese AS patients with BAV versus tricuspid aortic valve (TAV).MethodsSeventy-four consecutive tricuspid AS patients and 44 bicuspid AS patients were included and enrolled in the study for analysis. Both groups underwent TAVI performed using balloon sizing less than mild paravalvular AR to assess the proper prosthesis size. The myocardial function within 1 year postoperative were sequentially evaluated using the New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, and echocardiography measurements. The incidence rates of complications at 30 days and 1 year were analyzed. During the 1-year follow-up, the time of death from any cause or complications in both groups was recorded.ResultsThe study found that the percentage of patients with class III-IV of NYHA dropped after TAVI in both groups, and no significant difference between both groups at 1 year. Compared with the tricuspid AS group patients, Bicuspid group patients had more improvement in mean aortic valve gradient from baseline to 1year (-47.47±13.38 vs. -50.22±19.25 mmHg, P<0.05). There were no significant differences in 30-day and one-year compliance outcomes except a lower incidence of AR at post-procedure and 30 days in the tricuspid AS group as the Bicuspid AS group. There were no statistically significant differences in the time of death from any cause or significant complications between groups.ConclusionsTAVI has acceptable therapeutic efficacy and safety and is feasible for AS patients with BAV in China.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Bicuspid aortic valve (BAV) disease is the most common congenital cardiac abnormality affecting 1-2% of the population and is associated with a significantly increased risk of ascending aortic aneurysm. However, predicting which patients will develop aneurysms remains a challenge. This pilot study aimed to identify candidate plasma biomarkers for monitoring ascending aortic diameter and predicting risk of future aneurysm in BAV patients. METHODS:Plasma samples were collected pre-operatively from BAV patients undergoing aortic valve surgery. Maximum ascending aortic diameter was measured on pre-operative transoesophageal echocardiography. Maximum diameter???45 mm was classified as aneurysmal. Sequential Window Acquisition of all THeoretical Mass Spectra (SWATH-MS), an advanced mass spectrometry technique, was used to identify and quantify all proteins within the samples. Protein abundance and aortic diameter were correlated using logistic regression. Levene's test was used to identify proteins demonstrating low abundance variability in the aneurysmal patients (consistent expression in disease), and high variability in the non-aneurysmal patients (differential expression between 'at risk' and not 'at risk' patients). RESULTS:Fifteen plasma samples were collected (seven non-aneurysmal and 8 aneurysmal BAV patients). The mean age of the patients was 55.5 years and the majority were female (10/15, 67%). Four proteins (haemoglobin subunits alpha, beta and delta and mannan-binding lectin serine protease) correlated significantly with maximal ascending aortic diameter (p?<?0.05, r?=?0.5-0.6). Five plasma proteins demonstrated significantly lower variability in the aneurysmal group and may indicate increased risk of aneurysm in non-aneurysmal patients (DNA-dependent protein kinase catalytic subunit, lumican, tetranectin, gelsolin and cartilage acidic protein 1). A further 7 proteins were identified only in the aneurysmal group (matrin-3, glucose-6-phosphate isomerase, coactosin-like protein, peptidyl-prolyl cis-trans isomerase A, golgin subfamily B member 1, myeloperoxidase and 2'-deoxynucleoside 5'-phosphate N-hydrolase 1). CONCLUSIONS:This study is the first to identify candidate plasma biomarkers for predicting aortic diameter and risk of future aneurysm in BAV patients. It provides valuable pilot data and proof of principle that could be used to design a large-scale prospective investigation. Ultimately, a more affordable 'off-the-shelf' follow-on blood assay could then be developed in place of SWATH-MS, for use in the healthcare setting.

Dataset Information

Predicting Disease Progression in Patients with Bicuspid Aortic Stenosis Using Mathematical Modeling.

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Predicting Disease Progression in Patients with Bicuspid Aortic Stenosis Using Mathematical Modeling.

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