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Can knowledge of election results change recall of our predictions? Neural correlates of political hindsight bias.

ABSTRACT: Hindsight bias (HB) is the tendency to retrospectively exaggerate one's foresight knowledge about the outcome of an event. Cognitive processes influenced by newly obtained outcome information are used to explain the HB phenomenon, but the neural correlates remain unknown. This study investigated HB in the context of election results using a memory design and functional magnetic resonance imaging for the first time. Participants were asked to predict and recall the percentage of votes obtained by (pairs of) candidates before and after an election. The results revealed that 88% of participants showed HB by recalling that their predictions were closer to the actual outcomes than they really were; and participants had HB for 38% of the events. The HB effect was associated with activation in the medial superior frontal gyrus and bilateral inferior frontal gyrus (IFG), which have been implicated in updating an old belief due to new information and is similar to the process of reconstruction bias. Furthermore, participants with a greater HB effect showed greater activation of the left IFG. In conclusion, we successfully observed the HB phenomenon in election results, and our imaging results suggested that the HB phenomenon might involve reconstruction bias.

SUBMITTER: Chen YH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6786518 | biostudies-other | 2019

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-other

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Can knowledge of election results change recall of our predictions? Neural correlates of political hindsight bias.

Chen Yin-Hua YH Cheng Hsu-Po HP Lu Yu-Wen YW Lee Pei-Hong PH Northoff Georg G Yen Nai-Shing NS

PloS one 20191010 10

Hindsight bias (HB) is the tendency to retrospectively exaggerate one's foresight knowledge about the outcome of an event. Cognitive processes influenced by newly obtained outcome information are used to explain the HB phenomenon, but the neural correlates remain unknown. This study investigated HB in the context of election results using a memory design and functional magnetic resonance imaging for the first time. Participants were asked to predict and recall the percentage of votes obtained by ...[more]

PMID: 31600216

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Project description:The attention of drug-dependent persons tends to be captured by stimuli associated with drug consumption. This involuntary cognitive process is considered as attentional bias (AB). AB has been hypothesized to have causal effects on drug abuse and drug relapse, but its underlying neural mechanisms are still unclear. This study investigated the neural basis of AB in abstinent heroin addicts (AHAs), combining event-related potential (ERP) analysis and source localization techniques. Electroencephalography data were collected in 21 abstinent heroin addicts and 24 age- and gender-matched healthy controls (HCs) during a dot-probe task. In the task, a pair of drug-related image and neutral image was presented randomly in left and right side of the cross fixation, followed by a dot probe replacing one of the images. Behaviorally, AHAs had shorter reaction times (RTs) for the congruent condition compared to the incongruent condition, whereas this was not the case in the HCs. This finding demonstrated the presence of AB towards drug cues in AHAs. Furthermore, the image-evoked ERPs in AHAs had significant shorter P1 latency compared to HCs, as well as larger N1, N2, and P2 amplitude, suggesting that drug-related stimuli might capture attention early and overall require more attentional resources in AHAs. The target-related P3 had significantly shorter latency and lower amplitude in the congruent than incongruent condition in AHAs compared to HCs. Moreover, source localization of ERP components revealed increased activity for AHAs as compared to HCs in the dorsal posterior cingulate cortex (dPCC), superior parietal lobule and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) for image-elicited responses, and decreased activity in the occipital and the medial parietal lobes for target-elicited responses. Overall, the results of our study confirmed that AHAs may exhibit AB in drug-related contexts, and suggested that the bias might be related to an abnormal neural activity, both in early and late attention processing stages.

Project description:BackgroundAnxiety and irritability frequently co-occur in youth and are mediated by aberrant threat responses. However, empirical evidence on neural mechanisms underlying this co-occurrence is limited. To address this, we apply data-driven latent phenotyping to data from a prior report of a well-validated threat extinction recall fMRI paradigm.MethodsParticipants included 59 youth (28 anxiety disorder, 31 healthy volunteers; Mage=13.15 yrs) drawn from a transdiagnostic sample of 331 youth, in which bifactor analysis was conducted to derive latent factors representing shared vs. unique variance of dimensionally-assessed anxiety and irritability. Participants underwent threat conditioning and extinction. Approximately three weeks later, during extinction recall fMRI, participants made threat-safety discriminations under two task conditions: current threat appraisal and explicit recall of threat contingencies. Linear mixed-effects analyses examined associations of a "negative affectivity" factor reflecting shared anxiety and irritability variance with whole-brain activation and task-dependent amygdala connectivity.ResultsDuring recall of threat-safety contingencies, higher negative affectivity was associated with greater prefrontal (ventrolateral/ventromedial, dorsolateral, orbitofrontal), motor, temporal, parietal, and occipital activation. During threat appraisal, higher negative affectivity was associated with greater amygdala-inferior parietal lobule connectivity to threat/safety ambiguity.LimitationsSample included only healthy youth and youth with anxiety disorders. Results may not generalize to other diagnoses for which anxiety and irritability are also common, and our negative affectivity factor should be interpreted as anxiety disorders with elevated irritability. Reliability of some subfactors was poor.ConclusionsAberrant amygdala-prefrontal-parietal circuitry during extinction recall of threat-safety stimuli may be a mechanism underlying the co-occurrence of pediatric anxiety and irritability.

Dataset Information

Can knowledge of election results change recall of our predictions? Neural correlates of political hindsight bias.

Publications

Can knowledge of election results change recall of our predictions? Neural correlates of political hindsight bias.

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