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AI Prediction Model and Risk Stratification for Lung Metastasis in Colorectal Cancer

ABSTRACT: Background: To assist clinicians with diagnosis and optimal treatment decision-making, we attempted to develop and validate an artificial intelligence prediction model for lung metastasis (LM) in colorectal cancer (CRC) patients. Method: The clinicopathological characteristics of 46037 CRC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and 2779 CRC patients from a multi-center external validation set were collected retrospectively. After feature selection by univariate and multivariate analyses, six machine learning (ML) models, including logistic regression, K-nearest neighbor, support vector machine, decision tree, random forest, and balanced random forest (BRF), were developed and validated for the LM prediction. The optimization model with best performance was compared to the clinical predictor. In addition, stratified LM patients by risk score were utilized for survival analysis.

DISEASE(S): Lung Metastases,Neoplasm Metastasis,Colorectal Cancer,Colorectal Neoplasms,Lung Neoplasms

PROVIDER: 46649 | ecrin-mdr-crc |

REPOSITORIES: ECRIN MDR

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Project description:Background & Aims. The current staging system for colorectal cancer (CRC) based on TNM classification allows prediction of potential recurrence. However, it does not necessarily make reliable personalized prediction of prognosis. In this paper we describe combination of clinicopathological data and gene signature of dissected tumor specimen with stage II and III CRC patients would improve the situation.. Methods. A total of 1978 CRC were collected over 5 years, and then 371 stage II and 322 stage III of them with more than 45.9 months records were subjected to clinicopathological feature analyses. Out of this collection, 129 stage II and III CRC cases were selected for analyses of gene expression profiles with resected specimen. The gene signatures were analyzed by repeated random divisions of the samples into training and test sets to extract discriminator genes. After testing the applicability of this discriminator set, it was subjected to validation using a newly obtained set of 69 samples. Results. The pathological factors in solo or in combinations could not make personalized recurrence prediction, except for partial success with stage II patients. The gene signature, on the other hand, was capable of producing a set of discriminator genes, though the accuracy was yet to be improved. We observed that the best result was obtained when discriminators were selected from stage II CRC samples and used for prognosis of stage II CRC. When stage III cases were included in the process of discriminator extraction or in the process to validate samples, the results were poorer. Finally, we examined 31 independent stage II samples with a set of 30 such discriminators and were able to obtain results with 78 % accuracy, 90 % negative predictive value (NPV), and 55% positive predictive value (PPV). Conclusions. Independent clinicopathological variables were not able to predict prognosis of individual patient, unless the factors are combined. On the other hand, gene signatures allowed accurate prediction of prognosis for individuals, especially with stage II CRC, suggesting its potential use for selection of best treatment option for individual patients. The accuracy of discriminator prediction will be further improved when we take the evolution of CRC into consideration. Of 198 samples, 129 represented the discovery phase and 69 represented the validation phase.

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AI Prediction Model and Risk Stratification for Lung Metastasis in Colorectal Cancer

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