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Gene expression profiling of subclinical acute kidney rejection II

ABSTRACT: Sub-clinical acute rejection (subAR) in kidney transplant recipients (KTR) leads to chronic rejection and graft loss. Non-invasive biomarkers are needed to detect subAR. 307 KTR were enrolled into a multi-center observational study. Precise clinical phenotypes (CP) were used to define subAR. Differential gene expression (DGE) data from peripheral blood samples paired with surveillance biopsies were used to train a Random Forests (RF) model to develop a gene expression profile (GEP) for subAR. A separate cohort of paired samples was used to validate the GEP. Clinical endpoints and gene pathway mapping were used to assess clinical validity and biologic relevance. DGE data from 530 samples (130 subAR) collected from 250 KTR yielded a RF model: AUC 0.85; 0.84 after internal validation with bootstrap resampling. We selected a predicted probability threshold favoring specificity and NPV (87% and 88%) over sensitivity and PPV (64% and 61%, respectively). We tested the locked model/threshold on a separate cohort of 138 KTR undergoing surveillance biopsies at our institution (rejection 42; no rejection 96): NPV 78%; PPV 51%; AUC 0.66. Both the CP and GEP of subAR within the first 12 months following transplantation were independently associated with worse graft outcomes at 24 months, including de novo donor-specific antibody (DSA). Serial GEP tracked with response to treatment of subAR. DGE data from both cohorts mapped to gene pathways indicative of allograft rejection.

ORGANISM(S): Homo sapiens

PROVIDER: GSE107506 | GEO | 2018/07/24

REPOSITORIES: GEO

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Project description:Chronic injury in kidney transplants remains a major cause of graft loss. The aim of this study was to identify a predictive gene set capable of classifying renal grafts at risk for progressive injury due to fibrosis.The Genomics of Chronic Allograft Rejection (GoCAR) study is a prospective, multicenter study. Biopsies obtained prospectively 3 months after transplantation from renal allograft recipients (n=159) with stable renal function were analyzed for gene expression by microarray. Genes were sought which correlated with subsequent 12-month Chronic Allograft Damage Index (CADI) but neither CADI in the 3 month biopsy nor other histological or clinical parameters. We identified a set of 13 genes that was independently predictive for the development of fi brosis at 1 year (ie, CADI-12 >=2). The gene set had high predictive capacity (area under the curve [AUC] 0·967), which was superior to that of baseline clinical variables (AUC 0·706) and clinical and pathological variables (AUC 0·806). Furthermore routine pathological variables were unable to identify which histologically normal allografts would progress to fi brosis (AUC 0·754), whereas the predictive gene set accurately discriminated between transplants at high and low risk of progression (AUC 0·916). The 13 genes also accurately predicted early allograft loss (AUC 0·842 at 2 years and 0·844 at 3 years). We validated the predictive value of this gene set in an independent cohort from the GoCAR study (n=45, AUC 0·866) and two independent, publically available expression datasets (n=282, AUC 0·831 and n=24, AUC 0·972). Biopsies obtained prospectively 3 months after transplantation from renal allograft recipients (n=159) with stable renal function were analyzed for gene expression by Affymetrix exon arrays. Genes that were specifically correlated with 12-month Chronic Allograft Damage Index (CADI) but neither CADI in the 3 month biopsy nor other histological or clinical parameters were identified by correlation analysis. The minimal geneset was further identified to predict the progressors/non progressors and validated by qPCR in an independent cohort and two public datasets. This dataset is part of the TransQST collection.

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Gene expression profiling of subclinical acute kidney rejection II

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