Project description:BACKGROUND:The subtropical island of Taiwan is an area of high endemism and a complex topographic environment. Phylogeographic studies indicate that vicariance caused by Taiwan's mountains has subdivided many taxa into genetic phylogroups. We used mitochondrial DNA sequences and nuclear microsatellites to test whether the evolutionary history of an endemic montane bird, Steere's Liocichla (Liocichla steerii), fit the general vicariant paradigm for a montane organism. RESULTS:We found that while mountains appear to channel gene flow they are not a significant barrier for Steere's Liocichla. Recent demographic expansion was evident, and genetic diversity was relatively high across the island, suggesting expansion from multiple areas rather than a few isolated refugia. Ecological niche modeling corroborated the molecular results and suggested that populations of Steere's Liocichla are connected by climatically suitable habitat and that there was less suitable habitat during the Last Glacial Maximum. CONCLUSIONS:Genetic and ecological niche modeling data corroborate a single history--Steere's Liocichla was at lower density during the Last Glacial Maximum and has subsequently expanded in population density. We suggest that such a range-wide density expansion might be an overlooked cause for the genetic patterns of demographic expansion that are regularly reported. We find significant differences among some populations in FST indices and an admixture analysis. Though both of these results are often used to suggest conservation action, we affirm that statistically significant results are not necessarily biologically meaningful and we urge caution when interpreting highly polymorphic data such as microsatellites.
Project description:AimThe aim of this study is to model the past, current, and future distribution of J. phoenicea s.s., J. turbinata, and J. canariensis, based on bioclimatic variables using a maximum entropy model (Maxent) in the Mediterranean and Macaronesian regions.LocationMediterranean and Macaronesian.TaxonCupressaceae, Juniperus.MethodsData on the occurrence of the J. phoenicea complex were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF.org), the literature, herbaria, and the authors' field notes. Bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim database and Paleoclim. The climate data related to species localities were used for predictions of niches by implementation of Maxent, and the model was evaluated with ENMeval.ResultsThe potential niches of Juniperus phoenicea during the Last Interglacial period (LIG), Last Glacial Maximum climate (LGM), and Mid-Holocene (MH) covered 30%, 10%, and almost 100%, respectively, of the current potential niche. Climate warming may reduce potential niches by 30% in RCP2.6 and by 90% in RCP8.5. The potential niches of Juniperus turbinata had a broad circum-Mediterranean and Canarian distribution during the LIG and the MH; its distribution extended during the LGM when it was found in more areas than at present. The predicted warming in scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 could reduce the current potential niche by 30% and 50%, respectively. The model did not find suitable niches for J. canariensis during the LIG and the LGM, but during the MH its potential niche was 30% larger than at present. The climate warming scenario RCP2.6 indicates a reduction in the potential niche by 30%, while RCP8.5 so indicates a reduction of almost 60%.Main conclusionsThis research can provide information for increasing the protection of the juniper forest and for counteracting the phenomenon of local extinctions caused by anthropic pressure and climate changes.