Dataset Information

Okuonghae2020 - SEAIR model of COVID-19 transmission in Lagos, Nigeria

ABSTRACT: This work examines the impact of various non-pharmaceutical control measures (government and personal) on the population dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lagos, Nigeria, using an appropriately formulated mathematical model. Using the available data, since its first reported case on 16 March 2020, we seek to develop a predicative tool for the cumulative number of reported cases and the number of active cases in Lagos; we also estimate the basic reproduction number of the disease outbreak in the aforementioned State in Nigeria. Using numerical simulations, we show the effect of control measures, specifically the common social distancing, use of face mask and case detection (via contact tracing and subsequent testings) on the dynamics of COVID-19. We also provide forecasts for the cumulative number of reported cases and active cases for different levels of the control measures being implemented. Numerical simulations of the model show that if at least 55% of the population comply with the social distancing regulation with about 55% of the population effectively making use of face masks while in public, the disease will eventually die out in the population and that, if we can step up the case detection rate for symptomatic individuals to about 0.8 per day, with about 55% of the population complying with the social distancing regulations, it will lead to a great decrease in the incidence (and prevalence) of COVID-19.

DISEASE(S): Covid-19

SUBMITTER: Paul Jonas Jost

PROVIDER: BIOMD0000000991 | BioModels | 2024-09-02

REPOSITORIES: BioModels

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Dataset's files

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			Action	DRS
	BIOMD0000000991?filename=Okuonghae2020.cps	Other
	BIOMD0000000991?filename=Okuonghae2020.omex	Other
	BIOMD0000000991?filename=Okuonghae2020.sedml	Other
	BIOMD0000000991?filename=Okuonghae2020.xml	Xml
	BIOMD0000000991?filename=Okuonghae2020_PEtab.zip	Other

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Publications

Analysis of a mathematical model for COVID-19 population dynamics in Lagos, Nigeria.

Okuonghae D D Omame A A

Chaos, solitons, and fractals 20200620

This work examines the impact of various non-pharmaceutical control measures (government and personal) on the population dynamics of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Lagos, Nigeria, using an appropriately formulated mathematical model. Using the available data, since its first reported case on 16 March 2020, we seek to develop a predicative tool for the cumulative number of reported cases and the number of active cases in Lagos; we also estimate the basic reproduction number of t ...[more]

PMID: 32834593

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Project description:Background: In December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease (later named as COVID-19) was identified in Wuhan, China and, later on, detected in other parts of China. Our aim is to evaluate the effectiveness of the evolution of interventions and self-protection measures, estimate the risk of partial lifting control measures and predict the epidemic trend of the virus in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province based on the published data and a novel mathematical model. Methods: A novel COVID-19 transmission dynamic model incorporating the intervention measures implemented in China is proposed. COVID-19 daily data of the mainland of China excluding Hubei province, including the cumulative confirmed cases, the cumulative deaths, newly confirmed cases and the cumulative recovered cases between 20 January and 3 March 2020, were archived from the National Health Commission of China (NHCC). We parameterize the model by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and estimate the control reproduction number (Rc), as well as the effective daily reproduction ratio- Re(t), of the disease transmission in the mainland of China excluding Hubei province. Results: The estimation outcomes indicate that Rc is 3.36 (95% CI: 3.20-3.64) and Re(t) has dropped below 1 since 31 January 2020, which implies that the containment strategies implemented by the Chinese government in the mainland of China are indeed effective and magnificently suppressed COVID-19 transmission. Moreover, our results show that relieving personal protection too early may lead to a prolonged disease transmission period and more people would be infected, and may even cause a second wave of epidemic or outbreaks. By calculating the effective reproduction ratio, we prove that the contact rate should be kept at least less than 30% of the normal level by April, 2020. Conclusions: To ensure the pandemic ending rapidly, it is necessary to maintain the current integrated restrict interventions and self-protection measures, including travel restriction, quarantine of entry, contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation and reduction of contact, like wearing masks, keeping social distance, etc. People should be fully aware of the real-time epidemic situation and keep sufficient personal protection until April. If all the above conditions are met, the outbreak is expected to be ended by April in the mainland of China apart from Hubei province.