Mwalili2020 - SEIR model of COVID-19 transmission and environmental pathogen prevalence

ABSTRACT: Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a pandemic respiratory illness spreading from person-to-person caused by a novel coronavirus and poses a serious public health risk. The goal of this study was to apply a modified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) compartmental mathematical model for prediction of COVID-19 epidemic dynamics incorporating pathogen in the environment and interventions. The next generation matrix approach was used to determine the basic reproduction number R0. The model equations are solved numerically using fourth and ffth order Runge–Kutta methods. Results: We found an R0 of 2.03, implying that the pandemic will persist in the human population in the absence of strong control measures. Results after simulating various scenarios indicate that disregarding social distancing and hygiene measures can have devastating effects on the human population. The model shows that quarantine of contacts and isolation of cases can help halt the spread on novel coronavirus.

DISEASE(S): Covid-19

SUBMITTER: Kausthubh Ramachandran  

PROVIDER: BIOMD0000000964 | BioModels | 2024-09-02

REPOSITORIES: BioModels