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Predicting heart failure onset in the general population using a novel data-mining artificial intelligence method.

ABSTRACT: We aimed to identify combinations of clinical factors that predict heart failure (HF) onset using a novel limitless-arity multiple-testing procedure (LAMP). We also determined if increases in numbers of predictive combinations of factors increases the probability of developing HF. We recruited people without HF who received health check-ups in 2010, who were followed annually for 4 years. Using 32,547 people, LAMP was performed to identify combinations of factors of fewer than four factors that could predict the onset of HF. The ability of the method to predict the probability of HF onset based on the number of matching predictive combinations of factors was determined in 275,658 people. We identified 549 combinations of factors for the onset of HF. Then we classified 275,658 people into six groups who had 0, 1-50, 51-100, 101-150, 151-200 or 201-250 predictive combinations of factors for the onset of HF. We found that the probability of HF progressively increased as the number of predictive combinations of factors increased. We identified combinations of variables that predict HF onset. An increased number of matching predictive combinations for the onset of HF increased the probability of HF onset.

SUBMITTER: Miyashita Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10020464 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting heart failure onset in the general population using a novel data-mining artificial intelligence method.

Miyashita Yohei Y Hitsumoto Tatsuro T Fukuda Hiroki H Kim Jiyoong J Washio Takashi T Kitakaze Masafumi M

Scientific reports 20230316 1

We aimed to identify combinations of clinical factors that predict heart failure (HF) onset using a novel limitless-arity multiple-testing procedure (LAMP). We also determined if increases in numbers of predictive combinations of factors increases the probability of developing HF. We recruited people without HF who received health check-ups in 2010, who were followed annually for 4 years. Using 32,547 people, LAMP was performed to identify combinations of factors of fewer than four factors that ...[more]

PMID: 36928666

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Project description:Cardiovascular diseases and their associated disorder of heart failure (HF) are major causes of death globally, making it a priority for doctors to detect and predict their onset and medical consequences. Artificial Intelligence (AI) allows doctors to discover clinical indicators and enhance their diagnoses and treatments. Specifically, “eXplainable AI” (XAI) offers tools to improve the clinical prediction models that experience poor interpretability of their results. This work presents an explainability analysis and evaluation of two HF survival prediction models using a dataset that includes 299 patients who have experienced HF. The first model utilizes survival analysis, considering death events and time as target features, while the second model approaches the problem as a classification task to predict death. The model employs an optimization data workflow pipeline capable of selecting the best machine learning algorithm as well as the optimal collection of features. Moreover, different post hoc techniques have been used for the explainability analysis of the model. The main contribution of this paper is an explainability-driven approach to select the best HF survival prediction model balancing prediction performance and explainability. Therefore, the most balanced explainable prediction models are Survival Gradient Boosting model for the survival analysis and Random Forest for the classification approach with a c-index of 0.714 and balanced accuracy of 0.74 (std 0.03) respectively. The selection of features by the SCI-XAI in the two models is similar where “serum_creatinine”, “ejection_fraction”, and “sex” are selected in both approaches, with the addition of “diabetes” for the survival analysis model. Moreover, the application of post hoc XAI techniques also confirm common findings from both approaches by placing the “serum_creatinine” as the most relevant feature for the predicted outcome, followed by “ejection_fraction”. The explainable prediction models for HF survival presented in this paper would improve the further adoption of clinical prediction models by providing doctors with insights to better understand the reasoning behind usually “black-box” AI clinical solutions and make more reasonable and data-driven decisions.

Dataset Information

Predicting heart failure onset in the general population using a novel data-mining artificial intelligence method.

Publications

Predicting heart failure onset in the general population using a novel data-mining artificial intelligence method.

Similar Datasets

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