Dataset Information

Development and external validation of a prognosis model to predict outcomes after curative resection of early-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Early-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ESICC) with curative resection and lymph node-negative still has the risk of poor prognosis, and there lacks prognosis-assessing tools for these patients. The objective of this study was to develop a prognosis model to predict outcomes and identify risk stratification for ESICC after resection.

Methods

Totally 263 patients with ESICC after hepatectomy from January 2012 to January 2022 were analyzed. Clinicopathological factors were selected using multivariable Cox regression analysis and a prognosis model was developed. The performance of the model was evaluated by concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, decision curves analysis (DCA), and net reclassification index (NRI). Kaplan-Meier curves were analyzed for risk stratification of overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) based on the prognosis model.

Results

The clinicopathological features that were independently associated with OS of ESICC included carbohydrate antigen19-9, carcinoembryonic antigen, tumor size, tumor differentiation, and T stage. The prognosis model based on these prognostic factors demonstrated excellent discriminatory performance in both derivation cohort (C-index, 0.71) and external validation cohort (C-index, 0.78), which outperformed the TNM staging system (C-index, 0.59) and individual prognostic factors (all C-index < 0.7). Calibration plots, DCA and NRI also showed superior predictive performance. According to the risk for survival, the model stratified patients into low risk (median OS, 66.6 months; median RFS, 24.3 months) and high risk (median OS, 24.0 months; median RFS, 6.4 months) (P < 0.001).

Conclusions

Our prognosis model can robustly predict the outcomes of ESICC after curative resection and provide precise evaluation on prognosis risk, facilitating clinicians to develop individualized postoperative treatment options.

SUBMITTER: Wang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10030709 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and external validation of a prognosis model to predict outcomes after curative resection of early-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

Wang Jianping J Huang Manling M Shen Jingxian J Li Bin B Wu Yanqing Y Xie Wenxuan W Xiao Han H Tan Li L

Frontiers in surgery 20230308

<h4>Background</h4>Early-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ESICC) with curative resection and lymph node-negative still has the risk of poor prognosis, and there lacks prognosis-assessing tools for these patients. The objective of this study was to develop a prognosis model to predict outcomes and identify risk stratification for ESICC after resection.<h4>Methods</h4>Totally 263 patients with ESICC after hepatectomy from January 2012 to January 2022 were analyzed. Clinicopathological factor ...[more]

PMID: 36969753

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Project description:Early relapse after hepatectomy for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) has a tremendous influence on the long-term survival outcomes of ICC patients. The purpose of our study was to investigate risk factors for early tumor relapse and confirm whether early relapse was correlated with ICC patients' long-term survival outcomes. Three hundred and twenty-two consecutive ICC patients undergoing partial hepatectomy at Liver Surgery Department of Zhongshan Hospital (Fudan University, Shanghai, China) between January 2005 and December 2011 were included in this retrospectively study. The definition of early relapse had been described as tumor relapse within 24 months after hepatectomy in ICC patients. We identified a total of 168 ICC patients with early relapse and 23 ICC patients with late relapse after hepatectomy. From the time of relapse, the long-term survival outcomes were worse among patients who had early vs. late relapse (median OS 16.5 vs. 44.7 months, respectively; P < 0.0001). The overall survival of the early relapse group was lower than that of the late relapse group (P < 0.0001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis indicated that multiple tumors (hazard ratio [HR], 1.951; 95% CI, 1.382-2.755; P < 0.001), lymphonodus metastasis (HR, 1.517; 95% CI, 1.061-2.168; P = 0.022), and higher serum CA19-9 levels (HR, 1.495; 95% CI, 1.095-2.039; P = 0.011) were independent risk factors of early relapse. Moreover, multiple tumors (HR, 1.641; 95% CI, 1.120-2.406; P = 0.011), lymphonodus metastasis (HR, 2.008; 95% CI, 1.367-2.949; P < 0.001), elevated NLR (HR, 1.921; 95% CI, 1.331-2.774; P < 0.001) and higher serum CA19-9 levels (HR, 1.990; 95% CI, 1.409-2.812; P < 0.001) were independent predictors of overall survival for ICC patients with early relapse. Collectively, our findings demonstrated that multiple tumors, lymphonodus metastasis, and higher serum CA19-9 levels were associated with the increased risks of early relapse and worse prognoses of ICC after curative-intent resection.

Dataset Information

Development and external validation of a prognosis model to predict outcomes after curative resection of early-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Development and external validation of a prognosis model to predict outcomes after curative resection of early-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

Similar Datasets

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