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Prognostic Value of Simple Non-Invasive Tests for the Risk Stratification of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhotic Individuals with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

ABSTRACT: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a relevant disease burden in cirrhotic patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of simple non-invasive tests (NITs) (AAR, APRI, BARD, FIB-4) for the stratification of HCC risk development in a cohort of 122 consecutive cirrhotic individuals with NAFLD. Over a median follow up of 5.9 (3.2-9.3) years, 13 (10.7%) developed HCC. Only FIB-4 was associated with HCC risk (HR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.03-1.58, p = 0.027). After evaluating different established FIB-4 cut-offs, the lowest cut-off of 1.45 allowed the ruling out of a greater number of patients with a minimal risk of HCC than the 1.3 cut-off (23 vs. 18 patients). Conversely, the cumulative incidence of HCC using the highest cut-off of 3.25 (rule in) was distinctly higher than the 2.67 cut-off (19.4% vs. 13.3%). After multivariate Cox regression analysis, these cut-offs were independently associated with HCC after adjusting for sex, BMI and T2DM (HR = 6.40, 95% CI 1.71-24.00, p = 0.006). In conclusion, FIB-4 values of <1.3 and >3.25 could allow for the optimal stratification of long-term HCC risk in cirrhotic individuals with NAFLD.

SUBMITTER: Armandi A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10046647 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prognostic Value of Simple Non-Invasive Tests for the Risk Stratification of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhotic Individuals with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Armandi Angelo A Caviglia Gian Paolo GP Abdulle Amina A Rosso Chiara C Gjini Kamela K Castelnuovo Gabriele G Guariglia Marta M Perez Diaz Del Campo Nuria N D'Amato Daphne D Ribaldone Davide Giuseppe DG Saracco Giorgio Maria GM Bugianesi Elisabetta E

Cancers 20230308 6

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents a relevant disease burden in cirrhotic patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to investigate the prognostic value of simple non-invasive tests (NITs) (AAR, APRI, BARD, FIB-4) for the stratification of HCC risk development in a cohort of 122 consecutive cirrhotic individuals with NAFLD. Over a median follow up of 5.9 (3.2-9.3) years, 13 (10.7%) developed HCC. Only FIB-4 was associated with HCC risk (HR = 1.27, 95% CI 1.03-1.58, ...[more]

PMID: 36980543

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Project description:BackgroundThe spectrum of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) ranges from isolated hepatic steatosis to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis to fibrosis. We aimed to introduce useful biomarkers released during liver inflammation and fibrogenesis that are easy to use in outpatient clinic and adjust to children to evaluate each NAFLD stage without biopsy.MethodsThis prospective study included 60 patients aged under 19 years whose alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels were elevated from March 2021. All patients were proven to have NAFLD by ultrasonography and laboratory work-up to exclude other causes of hepatitis. Fibroscan and additional laboratory tests for biomarkers [procollagen type1 amino-terminal propeptide (P1NP), osteocalcin, interleukin-6 (IL-6), and Mac-2 binding protein glycosylated isomer (M2BPGi)] were performed. Fibroscan-AST (FAST) score was used for the comparison of steatohepatitis and liver stiffness measurement (kPa) was used for the comparison of advanced fibrosis.ResultsThe biomarker that showed a significant difference between the FAST-positive and negative groups was the P1NP/osteocalcin ratio with a p-value of 0.008. The area under receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) of P1NP/osteocalcin ratio*ALT values (values obtained through multivariate analysis) was 0.939 with the cut-off value of 305.38. The biomarkers that showed a significant difference between the LSM-positive and negative groups were IL-6 and M2BPGi with a p-values of 0.005 and <0.001. AUROC of IL-6 *AST values (values obtained through multivariate analysis) was 0.821 with the cut-off value of 228.15. M2BPGi showed a significant linear relationship with LSM in Pearson correlation analysis (Pearson correlation coefficient = 0.382; p = 0.003). The diagnostic capability of M2BPGi to evaluate advanced fibrosis showed an acceptable result (AUROC = 0.742; p = 0.022).ConclusionsNon-invasive biomarkers can be used to predict each stage of NAFLD in children. The measurements of P1NP, IL-6 or M2BPGi along with the basic chemistry tests would help determine the stage of NAFLD they correspond to at the time of initial diagnosis and predict responsiveness after the treatment.

Project description:Background & aimsHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk stratification in individuals with dysmetabolism is a major unmet need. Genetic predisposition contributes to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We aimed to exploit robust polygenic risk scores (PRS) that can be evaluated in the clinic to gain insight into the causal relationship between NAFLD and HCC, and to improve HCC risk stratification.MethodsWe examined at-risk individuals (NAFLD cohort, n = 2,566; 226 with HCC; and a replication cohort of 427 German patients with NAFLD) and the general population (UK Biobank [UKBB] cohort, n = 364,048; 202 with HCC). Variants in PNPLA3-TM6SF2-GCKR-MBOAT7 were combined in a hepatic fat PRS (PRS-HFC), and then adjusted for HSD17B13 (PRS-5).ResultsIn the NAFLD cohort, the adjusted impact of genetic risk variants on HCC was proportional to the predisposition to fatty liver (p = 0.002) with some heterogeneity in the effect. PRS predicted HCC more robustly than single variants (p <10-13). The association between PRS and HCC was mainly mediated through severe fibrosis, but was independent of fibrosis in clinically relevant subgroups, and was also observed in those without severe fibrosis (p <0.05). In the UKBB cohort, PRS predicted HCC independently of classical risk factors and cirrhosis (p <10-7). In the NAFLD cohort, we identified high PRS cut-offs (≥0.532/0.495 for PRS-HFC/PRS-5) that in the UKBB cohort detected HCC with ~90% specificity but limited sensitivity; PRS predicted HCC both in individuals with (p <10-5) and without cirrhosis (p <0.05).ConclusionsOur results are consistent with a causal relationship between hepatic fat and HCC. PRS improved the accuracy of HCC detection and may help stratify HCC risk in individuals with dysmetabolism, including those without severe liver fibrosis. Further studies are needed to validate our findings.Lay summaryBy analyzing variations in genes that contribute to fatty liver disease, we developed two risk scores to help predict liver cancer in individuals with obesity-related metabolic complications. These risk scores can be easily tested in the clinic. We showed that the risk scores helped to identify the risk of liver cancer both in high-risk individuals and in the general population.

Project description:BackgroundThe diagnosis of malaria, using microscopy or rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), requires the collection of capillary blood. This procedure is relatively simple to perform but invasive and poses potential risks to patients and health workers, arising from the manipulation of potentially infectious bodily fluids. Less or non-invasive diagnostic tests, based on urine, saliva or requiring no sampling, have the potential to generate less discomfort for the patient and to offer simpler and less risky testing procedures that could be safely performed by untrained staff or even self-performed. To explore the potential acceptance and perceived value of such non-invasive tests, an online, international survey was conducted to gather feedback from National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) representatives.MethodsAn online survey comprising nineteen questions, available in English, French or Spanish, was emailed to 300 individuals who work with NMCPs in malaria-endemic countries. Answers were collected between November and December 2017; responses were qualitatively analysed to identify key themes and trends and quantitatively analysed to determine average values stratified by region.ResultsResponses were received from 70 individuals, from 33 countries. Approximately half of the respondents (52 %) considered current blood-based tests for malaria to be minimally invasive and non-problematic in their setting. For these participants, non-invasive tests would only be of interest if they brought additional performance improvements, as compared with the performance of microscopy and RDTs. Most respondents were of the view that saliva-based (80 %) and urine-based (66 %) tests would be more readily acceptable among children than blood-based tests. Potential use-case scenarios of interest for both saliva- and urine-based tests were ease-of-testing by community health workers, additional surveillance, self-testing, and outbreak investigation. Many respondents (41 %) thought that if saliva-based tests retailed at <$0.50 per unit they could largely replace conventional RDTs, whereas only 25 % of respondents thought a similarly priced urine-based test would do so.ConclusionsAlthough limited to NMCP stakeholders, this survey indicated that current tests for malaria, based on capillary blood, are generally perceived to be minimally invasive and non-problematic. Non-invasive tests, especially if saliva-based, would be welcome if they could match or out-perform the price and performance of current blood-based tests.

Project description:Background and aims: Non-invasive tests (NITs) are needed in clinical practice to replace histology for the identification of liver fibrosis and prognostication in Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease (NAFLD). Novel collagen-derived fibrogenesis markers including N-terminal type III collagen pro-peptide (PRO-C3) are among the most promising tools in this field. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of PRO-C3, the derivative ADAPT score, and other NITs for the identification of advanced fibrosis (stages 3-4) and changes over 12 months of follow-up. Methods: In this longitudinal study, 96 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were evaluated at baseline, of which 50 underwent a follow-up visit after 12 months. Clinical-biochemical parameters, liver stiffness (LS) by transient elastography, PRO-C3, and other NITs (ADAPT, FIB-4, NFS, APRI) were collected at baseline and follow-up. Results: LS showed the best accuracy for the identification of advanced fibrosis, with Area under the Receiving Operator Curve (AUROC) 0.82 (0.73-0.89) for a cut-off value of 9.4 kPa. Among the other NITs, the ADAPT score showed the best accuracy, with AUROC 0.80 (0.71-0.88) for a cut-off of 5.02 (Se 62%, Sp 89%, PPV 74%, NPV 83%). The comparison between the AUROC of LS with that of ADAPT was not statistically different (DeLong test p value 0.348). At follow-up, LS was slightly reduced, whilst PRO-C3 displayed a significant increase from baseline median 11.2 ng/mL to 13.9 ng/mL at follow-up (p = 0.017). Accordingly, ADAPT score increased from median 5.3 to 6.1 (p = 0.019). The other NITs did not significantly change over 12 months. Conclusions: The ADAPT score shows the best performance among non-invasive scores for the identification of advanced fibrosis, not different from LS. Collagen-derived biomarker PRO-C3 and the derivative score ADAPT display significant changes over time, and may be useful tools for monitoring the progression of liver disease or assessing responses to treatments.

Dataset Information

Prognostic Value of Simple Non-Invasive Tests for the Risk Stratification of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhotic Individuals with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

Publications

Prognostic Value of Simple Non-Invasive Tests for the Risk Stratification of Incident Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Cirrhotic Individuals with Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

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