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The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data.


ABSTRACT: We study the dynamic effect of the COVID-19 shock on credit card use in 2020. Local case incidence had a strong negative effect on credit card spending in the early months of the pandemic, which diminished over time. This time-varying pattern was driven by the fear of the virus, rather than government support programs, consistent with the "pandemic fatigue" of consumers. Local pandemic severity also had a strong effect on credit card repayments. These spending and repayment effects offset each other, resulting in no effect on credit card borrowing, consistent with credit-smoothing behavior. The local stringency of nonpharmaceutical interventions also had a negative effect on spending and repayments, albeit smaller in magnitude. We conclude that the pandemic itself was a more important driver of changes in credit card use than the public health policy response.

SUBMITTER: Horvath A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10122565 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data.

Horvath Akos A   Kay Benjamin B   Wix Carlo C  

Journal of banking & finance 20230423


We study the dynamic effect of the COVID-19 shock on credit card use in 2020. Local case incidence had a strong negative effect on credit card spending in the early months of the pandemic, which diminished over time. This time-varying pattern was driven by the fear of the virus, rather than government support programs, consistent with the "pandemic fatigue" of consumers. Local pandemic severity also had a strong effect on credit card repayments. These spending and repayment effects offset each o  ...[more]

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