Dataset Information

A back propagation neural network approach to estimate the glomerular filtration rate in an older population

ABSTRACT:

Background

The use of creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate (GFR)-estimating equations to evaluate kidney function in elderly individuals does not appear to offer any performance advantages. We therefore aimed to develop an accurate GFR-estimating tool for this age group.

Methods

Adults aged ≥ 65 years who underwent GFR measurement by technetium-99 m-diethylene triamine pentaacetic acid (99mTc-DTPA) renal dynamic imaging were included. Data were randomly split into a training set containing 80% of the participants and a test set containing the remaining 20% of the subjects. The Back propagation neural network (BPNN) approach was used to derive a novel GFR estimation tool; then we compared the performance of the BPNN tool with six creatinine-based equations (Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration [CKD-EPI], European Kidney Function Consortium [EKFC], Berlin Initiative Study-1 [BIS1], Lund-Malmö Revised [LMR], Asian modified CKD-EPI, and Modification of Diet in Renal Disease [MDRD]) in the test cohort. Three equation performance criteria were considered: bias (difference between measured GFR and estimated GFR), precision (interquartile range [IQR] of the median difference), and accuracy P30 (percentage of GFR estimates that are within 30% of measured GFR).

Results

The study included 1,222 older adults. The mean age of both the training cohort (n = 978) and the test cohort (n = 244) was 72 ± 6 years, with 544 (55.6%) and 129 (52.9%) males, respectively. The median bias of BPNN was 2.06 ml/min/1.73 m2, which was smaller than that of LMR (4.59 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.03), and higher than that of the Asian modified CKD-EPI (-1.43 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.02). The median bias between BPNN and each of CKD-EPI (2.19 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.31), EKFC (-1.41 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.26), BIS1 (0.64 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.99), and MDRD (1.11 ml/min/1.73 m2; p = 0.45) was not significant. However, the BPNN had the highest precision IQR (14.31 ml/min/1.73 m2) and the greatest accuracy P30 among all equations (78.28%). At measured GFR < 45 ml/min/1.73 m2, the BPNN has highest accuracy P30 (70.69%), and highest precision IQR (12.46 ml/min/1.73 m2). The biases of BPNN and BIS1 equations were similar (0.74 [-1.55−2.78] and 0.24 [-2.58−1.61], respectively), smaller than any other equation.

Conclusions

The novel BPNN tool is more accurate than the currently available creatinine-based GFR estimation equations in an older population and could be recommended for routine clinical use.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-023-04027-5. Highlights Accurate estimation of kidney function in older adults is an important step to management of chronic kidney disease. BPNN tool highly improved precision and accuracy, although bias remains suboptimal. BPNN tool can be recommended for clinical use routinely, especially for patients with GFR < 45 ml/min/1.73 m2.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12877-023-04027-5.

SUBMITTER: Jiang S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10207816 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAccurate evaluation of glomerular filtration rates (GFRs) is of critical importance in clinical practice. A previous study showed that models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) could achieve a better performance than traditional equations. However, large-sample cross-sectional surveys have not resolved questions about ANN performance.MethodsA total of 1,180 patients that had chronic kidney disease (CKD) were enrolled in the development data set, the internal validation data set and the external validation data set. Additional 222 patients that were admitted to two independent institutions were externally validated. Several ANNs were constructed and finally a Back Propagation network optimized by a genetic algorithm (GABP network) was chosen as a superior model, which included six input variables; i.e., serum creatinine, serum urea nitrogen, age, height, weight and gender, and estimated GFR as the one output variable. Performance was then compared with the Cockcroft-Gault equation, the MDRD equations and the CKD-EPI equation.ResultsIn the external validation data set, Bland-Altman analysis demonstrated that the precision of the six-variable GABP network was the highest among all of the estimation models; i.e., 46.7 ml/min/1.73 m(2) vs. a range from 71.3 to 101.7 ml/min/1.73 m(2), allowing improvement in accuracy (15% accuracy, 49.0%; 30% accuracy, 75.1%; 50% accuracy, 90.5% [P<0.001 for all]) and CKD stage classification (misclassification rate of CKD stage, 32.4% vs. a range from 47.3% to 53.3% [P<0.001 for all]). Furthermore, in the additional external validation data set, precision and accuracy were improved by the six-variable GABP network.ConclusionsA new ANN model (the six-variable GABP network) for CKD patients was developed that could provide a simple, more accurate and reliable means for the estimation of GFR and stage of CKD than traditional equations. Further validations are needed to assess the ability of the ANN model in diverse populations.

Project description:BackgroundEquations to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR) are routinely used to assess kidney function. Current equations have limited precision and systematically underestimate measured GFR at higher values.ObjectiveTo develop a new estimating equation for GFR: the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation.DesignCross-sectional analysis with separate pooled data sets for equation development and validation and a representative sample of the U.S. population for prevalence estimates.SettingResearch studies and clinical populations ("studies") with measured GFR and NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey), 1999 to 2006.Participants8254 participants in 10 studies (equation development data set) and 3896 participants in 16 studies (validation data set). Prevalence estimates were based on 16,032 participants in NHANES.MeasurementsGFR, measured as the clearance of exogenous filtration markers (iothalamate in the development data set; iothalamate and other markers in the validation data set), and linear regression to estimate the logarithm of measured GFR from standardized creatinine levels, sex, race, and age.ResultsIn the validation data set, the CKD-EPI equation performed better than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation, especially at higher GFR (P < 0.001 for all subsequent comparisons), with less bias (median difference between measured and estimated GFR, 2.5 vs. 5.5 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)), improved precision (interquartile range [IQR] of the differences, 16.6 vs. 18.3 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)), and greater accuracy (percentage of estimated GFR within 30% of measured GFR, 84.1% vs. 80.6%). In NHANES, the median estimated GFR was 94.5 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) (IQR, 79.7 to 108.1) vs. 85.0 (IQR, 72.9 to 98.5) mL/min per 1.73 m(2), and the prevalence of chronic kidney disease was 11.5% (95% CI, 10.6% to 12.4%) versus 13.1% (CI, 12.1% to 14.0%).LimitationThe sample contained a limited number of elderly people and racial and ethnic minorities with measured GFR.ConclusionThe CKD-EPI creatinine equation is more accurate than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study equation and could replace it for routine clinical use.Primary funding sourceNational Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Project description:BackgroundThe performance of previously published glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimation equations degrades when directly used in Chinese population. We incorporated more independent variables and using complicated non-linear modeling technology (artificial neural network, ANN) to develop a more accurate GFR estimation model for Chinese population.MethodsThe enrolled participants came from the Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, China from Jan 2012 to Jun 2016. Participants with age < 18, unstable kidney function, taking trimethoprim or cimetidine, or receiving dialysis were excluded. Among the finally enrolled 1952 participants, 1075 participants (55.07%) from Jan 2012 to Dec 2014 were assigned as the development data whereas 877 participants (44.93%) from Jan 2015 to Jun 2016 as the internal validation data. We in total developed 3 GFR estimation models: a 4-variable revised CKD-EPI (chronic kidney disease epidemiology collaboration) equation (standardized serum creatinine and cystatin C, age and gender), a 9-variable revised CKD-EPI equation (additional auxiliary variables: body mass index, blood urea nitrogen, albumin, uric acid and hemoglobin), and a 9-variable ANN model.ResultsCompared with the 4-variable equation, the 9-variable equation could not achieve superior performance in the internal validation data (mean of difference: 5.00 [3.82, 6.54] vs 4.67 [3.55, 5.90], P = 0.5; interquartile range (IQR) of difference: 18.91 [17.43, 20.48] vs 20.11 [18.46, 21.80], P = 0.05; P30: 76.6% [73.7%, 79.5%] vs 75.8% [72.9%, 78.6%], P = 0.4), but the 9-variable ANN model significantly improve bias and P30 accuracy (mean of difference: 2.77 [1.82, 4.10], P = 0.007; IQR: 19.33 [17.77, 21.17], P = 0.3; P30: 80.0% [77.4%, 82.7%], P < 0.001).ConclusionsIt is suggested that using complicated non-linear models like ANN could fully utilize the predictive ability of the independent variables, and then finally achieve a superior GFR estimation model.

Dataset Information

A back propagation neural network approach to estimate the glomerular filtration rate in an older population

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Supplementary Information

Supplementary Information

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