Dataset Information

Modelled mortality benefits of multi-cancer early detection screening in England.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Screening programmes utilising blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, which can detect a shared cancer signal from any site in the body with a single, low false-positive rate, could reduce cancer burden through early diagnosis.

Methods

A natural history ('interception') model of cancer was previously used to characterise potential benefits of MCED screening (based on published performance of an MCED test). We built upon this using a two-population survival model to account for an increased risk of death from cfDNA-detectable cancers relative to cfDNA-non-detectable cancers. We developed another model allowing some cancers to metastasise directly from stage I, bypassing intermediate tumour stages. We used incidence and survival-by-stage data from the National Cancer Registration and Analysis Service in England to estimate longer-term benefits to a cohort screened between ages 50-79 years.

Results

Estimated late-stage and mortality reductions were robust to a range of assumptions. With the least favourable dwell (sojourn) time and cfDNA status hazard ratio assumptions, we estimated, among 100,000 screened individuals, 67 (17%) fewer cancer deaths per year corresponding to 2029 fewer deaths in those screened between ages 50-79 years.

Conclusion

Realising the potential benefits of MCED tests could substantially reduce late-stage cancer diagnoses and mortality.

SUBMITTER: Sasieni P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10307803 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modelled mortality benefits of multi-cancer early detection screening in England.

Sasieni Peter P Smittenaar Rebecca R Hubbell Earl E Broggio John J Neal Richard D RD Swanton Charles C

British journal of cancer 20230425 1

<h4>Background</h4>Screening programmes utilising blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests, which can detect a shared cancer signal from any site in the body with a single, low false-positive rate, could reduce cancer burden through early diagnosis.<h4>Methods</h4>A natural history ('interception') model of cancer was previously used to characterise potential benefits of MCED screening (based on published performance of an MCED test). We built upon this using a two-population surviv ...[more]

PMID: 37185463

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Project description:BackgroundEmerging blood-based multi-cancer early detection (MCED) tests can detect a variety of cancer types across stages with a range of sensitivity, specificity, and ability to predict the origin of the cancer signal. However, little is known about the general US population's preferences for MCED tests.ObjectiveTo quantify preferences for MCED tests among US adults aged 50-80 years using a discrete choice experiment (DCE).MethodsTo quantify preferences for attributes of blood-based MCED tests, an online DCE was conducted with five attributes (true positives, false negatives, false positives, likelihood of the cancer type unknown, number of cancer types detected), among the US population aged 50-80 years recruited via online panels and social media. Data were analyzed using latent class multinomial logit models and relative attribute importance was obtained.ResultsParticipants (N = 1700) were 54% female, mean age 63.3 years. Latent class modeling identified three classes with distinct preferences for MCED tests. The rank order of attribute importance based on relative attribute importance varied by latent class, but across all latent classes, participants preferred higher accuracy (fewer false negatives and false positives, more true positives) and screenings that detected more cancer types and had a lower likelihood of cancer type unknown. Overall, 72% of participants preferred to receive an MCED test in addition to currently recommended cancer screenings.ConclusionsWhile there is significant heterogeneity in cancer screening preferences, the majority of participants preferred MCED screening and the accuracy of these tests is important. While the majority of participants preferred adding an MCED test to complement current cancer screenings, the latent class analyses identified a small (16%) and specific subset of individuals who value attributes differently, with particular concern regarding false-negative and false-positive test results, who are significantly less likely to opt-in.

Dataset Information

Modelled mortality benefits of multi-cancer early detection screening in England.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Modelled mortality benefits of multi-cancer early detection screening in England.

Similar Datasets

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