Dataset Information

Study on the spatial spillover effect of land use type change on carbon emissions.

ABSTRACT: Land use change affects the terrestrial carbon cycle, a crucial factor in attaining energy conservation and emission reduction under climate change. This study constructs panel data for thirteen Hangzhou districts and municipalities from 2000 to 2020. Using the spatial Durbin model, it analyzes the spatial spillover effect of land use change on carbon emissions. The results show that the spatial distribution of carbon emissions in Hangzhou continues to increase with positive spatial autocorrelation, and the spatial distribution shows "high-high" and "low-low" clustering. The expansion of construction land is the main reason for the increase in carbon emissions, and the inhibitory effect of water area on carbon emissions is more potent than woodland. The area of cultivated land and construction land has a positive spillover effect on carbon emissions, while the woodland area has a negative spillover effect on carbon emissions. To promote urban low-carbon development, maximizing the spatial spillover effect of land use and establishing a collaborative governance system between districts and counties is crucial.

SUBMITTER: Zhang R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10374605 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Study on the spatial spillover effect of land use type change on carbon emissions.

Zhang Ruiwu R Ying Jun J Zhang Yiqi Y

Scientific reports 20230727 1

Land use change affects the terrestrial carbon cycle, a crucial factor in attaining energy conservation and emission reduction under climate change. This study constructs panel data for thirteen Hangzhou districts and municipalities from 2000 to 2020. Using the spatial Durbin model, it analyzes the spatial spillover effect of land use change on carbon emissions. The results show that the spatial distribution of carbon emissions in Hangzhou continues to increase with positive spatial autocorrelat ...[more]

PMID: 37500745

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Project description:Anthropogenic activities have altered approximately two-thirds of the Earth's land surface. Urbanization, industrialization, agricultural expansion, and deforestation are increasingly impacting the terrestrial landscapes, leading to shifts of areas in artificial surface (i.e., humanmade), cropland, pasture, forest, and barren land. Land use patterns and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions play a critical role in global climate change. Here we synthesized 29 years of global historical data and demonstrated how land use impacts global GHG emissions using structural equation modeling. We then obtained predictive estimates of future global GHG emissions using a deep learning model. Our results show that, from 1992 to 2020, the global terrestrial areas covered by artificial surface and cropland have expanded by 133% and 6% because of population growth and socioeconomic development, resulting in 4.0% and 3.8% of declines in pasture and forest areas, respectively. Land use was significantly associated with GHG emissions (p < 0.05). Artificial surface dominates global GHG emissions, followed by cropland, pasture, and barren land. The increase in artificial surfaces has driven up global GHG emissions through the increase in energy consumption. Conversely, improved agricultural management practices have contributed to mitigating agricultural GHG emissions. Forest, on the other hand, serves as a sink of GHG. In total, global GHG emissions increased from 31 to 46 GtCO2eq from 1992 to 2020. Looking ahead, if current trends in global land use continue at the same rates, our model projects that global GHG emissions will reach 76 ± 8 GtCO2eq in 2050. In contrast, reducing the rates of land use change by half could limit global GHG emissions to 60 ± 3 GtCO2eq in 2050. Monitoring and analyzing these projections allow a better understanding of the potential impacts of various land use scenarios on global climate and planning for a sustainable future.

Dataset Information

Study on the spatial spillover effect of land use type change on carbon emissions.

Publications

Study on the spatial spillover effect of land use type change on carbon emissions.

Similar Datasets

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