Dataset Information

Carbon dioxide emissions through land use change, fire, and oxidative peat decomposition in Borneo.

ABSTRACT: Borneo has accumulated an abundance of woody carbon in its forests and peat. However, agricultural land conversion accompanied by plantation development, dead wood burning, and peat drying from drainage are major challenges to climate change mitigation. This study aimed to develop a method of estimating carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from land use change, forest and peat fires, and oxidative peat decomposition, and CO₂ uptake from biomass growth across Borneo using remote sensing data from 2001 to 2016. Although CO₂ uptake by biomass growth in vast forests has shown a significant increasing trend, an annual net release of 461.10 ± 436.51 (average ± 1 standard deviation) Tg CO₂ year^-1 was observed. The estimated emissions were predominantly characterized by land use changes from 2001 to 2003, with the highest emissions in 2001. Land use change was evaluated from annual land use maps with an accuracy of 92.0 ± 1.0% (average ± 1 standard deviation). Forest and peat fires contributed higher emissions in 2002, 2006, 2009, 2014, and 2015 compared to other years and were strongly correlated with the Southern Oscillation Indexes. These results suggest that more CO₂ may have been released into the atmosphere than previously thought.

SUBMITTER: Shiraishi T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10421864 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Carbon dioxide emissions through land use change, fire, and oxidative peat decomposition in Borneo.

Shiraishi Tomohiro T Hirata Ryuichi R Hayashi Masato M Hirano Takashi T

Scientific reports 20230811 1

Borneo has accumulated an abundance of woody carbon in its forests and peat. However, agricultural land conversion accompanied by plantation development, dead wood burning, and peat drying from drainage are major challenges to climate change mitigation. This study aimed to develop a method of estimating carbon dioxide (CO<sub>2</sub>) emissions from land use change, forest and peat fires, and oxidative peat decomposition, and CO<sub>2</sub> uptake from biomass growth across Borneo using remote s ...[more]

PMID: 37567930

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Project description:BackgroundCarbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere (CDR) is a critical component of strategies for restricting global warming to 1.5°C and is expected to come largely from the sequestration of carbon in vegetation. Because CDR rates have been declining in the United States, in part due to land use changes, policy proposals are focused on altering land uses, through afforestation, avoided deforestation, and no-net-loss strategies. Estimating policy effects requires a careful assessment of how land uses interact with forest conditions to determine future CDR.ResultsWe evaluate how alternative specifications of land use-forest condition interactions in the United States affect projections of CDR using a model that mirrors land sector net emission inventories generated by the US government (EPA). Without land use change, CDR declines from 0.826 GT/yr in 2017 to 0.596 GT/yr in 2062 (28%) due to forest aging and disturbances. For a land use scenario that extends recent rates of change, we compare CDR estimated based on net changes in land use (Net Change model) and estimates that separately account for the distinct CDR implications of forest losses and forest gains (Component Change model). The Net Change model, a common specification, underestimates the CDR losses of land use by about 56% when compared with the Component Change models. We also estimate per hectare CDR losses from deforestation and gains from afforestation and find that afforestation gains lag deforestation losses in every ecological province in the US.ConclusionsNet Change approaches substantially underestimate the impact of land use change on CDR and should be avoided. Component Change models highlight that avoided deforestation may provide up to twice the CDR benefits as increased afforestation-though preference for one policy over the other would require a cost assessment. The disparities in the CDR impacts of afforestation and deforestation indicate that no-net-loss policies could mitigate some CDR losses but would lead to overall declines in CDR for our 45-year time horizon. Over a much longer period afforestation could capture more of the losses from deforestation but at a timeframe inconsistent with most climate change policy efforts.

Dataset Information

Carbon dioxide emissions through land use change, fire, and oxidative peat decomposition in Borneo.

Publications

Carbon dioxide emissions through land use change, fire, and oxidative peat decomposition in Borneo.

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