Dataset Information

A Validated Composite Score Demonstrates Potential Superiority to MELD-Based Systems in Predicting Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis-A Preliminary Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites, leading to high mortality rates if not promptly treated. However, specific prediction models for SBP are lacking.

Aims

This study aimed to compare commonly used cirrhotic prediction models (CTP score, MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD, and MELD 3.0) for short-term mortality prediction and develop a novel model to improve mortality prediction.

Methods

Patients with the first episode of SBP were included. Prognostic values for mortality were assessed using AUROC analysis. A novel prediction model was developed and validated.

Results

In total, 327 SBP patients were analyzed, with HBV infection as the main etiologies. MELD 3.0 demonstrated the highest AUROC among the traditional models. The novel model, incorporating HRS, exhibited superior predictive accuracy for in-hospital in all patients and 3-month mortality in HBV-cirrhosis, with AUROC values of 0.827 and 0.813 respectively, surpassing 0.8.

Conclusions

MELD 3.0 score outperformed the CTP score and showed a non-significant improvement compared to other MELD-based scores, while the novel SBP model demonstrated impressive accuracy. Internal validation and an HBV-related cirrhosis subgroup sensitivity analysis supported these findings, highlighting the need for a specific prognostic model for SBP and the importance of preventing HRS development to improve SBP prognosis.

SUBMITTER: Lin YT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10417459 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

A Validated Composite Score Demonstrates Potential Superiority to MELD-Based Systems in Predicting Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis-A Preliminary Study.

Lin Yan-Ting YT Chen Wei-Ting WT Wu Tsung-Han TH Liu Yu Y Liu Li-Tong LT Teng Wei W Hsieh Yi-Chung YC Wu Yen-Mu YM Huang Chien-Hao CH Hsu Chao-Wei CW Chien Rong-Nan RN

Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) 20230802 15

<h4>Background</h4>Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is a severe complication in cirrhosis patients with ascites, leading to high mortality rates if not promptly treated. However, specific prediction models for SBP are lacking.<h4>Aims</h4>This study aimed to compare commonly used cirrhotic prediction models (CTP score, MELD, MELD-Na, iMELD, and MELD 3.0) for short-term mortality prediction and develop a novel model to improve mortality prediction.<h4>Methods</h4>Patients with the first ep ...[more]

PMID: 37568941

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Project description:Background and aimsAccurate assessment of the risk of mortality following a cirrhosis-related admission can enable health-care providers to identify high-risk patients and modify treatment plans to decrease the risk of mortality.MethodsWe developed a post-discharge mortality prediction model for patients with a cirrhosis-related admission using a population of 314,292 patients who received care either at Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) or Brigham and Women's Hospital (BWH) between 1992 and 2010. We extracted 68 variables from the electronic medical records (EMRs), including demographics, laboratory values, diagnosis codes, and medications. We then used a regularized logistic regression to select the most informative variables and created a risk score that comprises the selected variables. To evaluate the potential for generalizability of our score, we applied it on all cirrhosis-related admissions between 2010 and 2015 at an independent EMR data source of more than 18 million patients, pooled from different health-care systems with EMRs. We calculated the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) to assess prediction performance.ResultsWe identified 4,781 cirrhosis-related admissions at MGH/BWH hospitals, of which 778 resulted in death within 90 days of discharge. Nine variables were the most effective predictors for 90-day mortality, and these included all MELD-Na's components, as well as albumin, total cholesterol, white blood cell count, age, and length of stay. Applying our nine-variable risk score (denoted as "MELD-Plus") resulted in an improvement over MELD and MELD-Na scores in several prediction models. On the MGH/BWH 90-day model, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 11.4% (0.78 [95% CI, 0.75-0.81] versus 0.70 [95% CI, 0.66-0.73]). In the MGH/BWH approximate 1-year model, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 8.3% (0.78 [95% CI, 0.76-0.79] versus 0.72 [95% CI, 0.71-0.73]). Performance improvement was similar when the novel MELD-Plus risk score was applied to an independent database; when considering 24,042 cirrhosis-related admissions, MELD-Plus improved the performance of MELD-Na by 16.9% (0.69 [95% CI, 0.69-0.70] versus 0.59 [95% CI, 0.58-0.60]).ConclusionsWe developed a new risk score, MELD-Plus that accurately stratifies the short-term mortality of patients with established cirrhosis, following a hospital admission. Our findings demonstrate that using a small set of easily accessible structured variables can help identify novel predictors of outcomes in cirrhosis patients and improve the performance of widely used traditional risk scores.

Project description:Background & aimsBacterial infections, in particular a spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), are a major threat in patients with liver cirrhosis. Recently, it has been shown that the impact on mortality might be underestimated by established risk-scores. Onset of infection was suggested to define a distinct stage of cirrhosis. However, it remains unclear whether all stages of decompensated cirrhosis are equally affected. Moreover, if there is such a distinct stage, it must be determined whether it is reversible after the infection has resolved. In this study we aimed to further analyze the impact of a current as well as a resolved SBP in different stages of decompensated liver cirrhosis.MethodsA number of 579 patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites were included. MELD-score was used to determine the stage of liver disease. Low (<15), intermediate (15-25) and high (>25) MELD-groups were compared. Patients were followed up for 90 days. Primary endpoint was overall mortality. Statistical analyses were performed using the log-rank test, Cox regression and competing risk analysis.ResultsMortality was significantly higher in patients with nosocomial-acquired SBP (nSBP) compared to patients without SBP (p<0.001;HR = 2.05). However, the most prominent difference in mortality was documented in the intermediate MELD-group (nSBP: p = 0.02;HR = 2.10). Importantly, mortality in nSBP patients remained increased even after the initial nSBP episode had resolved (p<0.01;HR = 1.90). Again, this was only significant in those with intermediate MELD-scores (p = 0.02;HR = 2.28). While a current as well as a resolved nSBP were significantly linked to a higher mortality, neither of them did increase the likelihood for liver transplantation.ConclusionsDevelopment of nSBP is independently associated with increased mortality supporting the concept of a distinct status of cirrhosis. Importantly, the prognosis remains unfavorable even after resolution of nSBP. This could be particularly relevant for patients with intermediate MELD-scores, who have limited chances for a donor liver.

Dataset Information

A Validated Composite Score Demonstrates Potential Superiority to MELD-Based Systems in Predicting Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis-A Preliminary Study.

Background

Aims

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

A Validated Composite Score Demonstrates Potential Superiority to MELD-Based Systems in Predicting Short-Term Survival in Patients with Liver Cirrhosis and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis-A Preliminary Study.

Similar Datasets

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