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Hepatic Encephalopathy and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis Improve Cirrhosis Outcome Prediction: A Modified Seven-Stage Model as a Clinical Alternative to MELD.

ABSTRACT: Classification of cirrhosis based on clinical stages is rapid and based on five stages at present. Two other relevant events, hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), can be considered in a clinical perspective but no study has implemented a seven-stage classification and confirmed its value before. In addition, long-term validation of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in large cohorts of patients with cirrhosis and comparison with clinical findings are insufficient. Therefore, we performed a study to address these items. From the Chang-Gung Research Database (CGRD), 20,782 patients with cirrhosis were enrolled for an historical survival study. The MELD score, the five-stage clinical score (i.e., occurrence of esophageal varices (EV), EV bleeding, ascites, sepsis) and a novel seven-stage clinical score (i.e., occurrence of EV, EV bleeding, ascites, sepsis, HE, SBP) were compared with their Cox models by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The addition of HE and SBP to the seven-stage model had a 5% better prediction result than the five-stage model did in the survival ROC analysis. The result showed that the seven clinical stages are associated with an increased risk for mortality. However, the predicted performances of the seven-stage model and MELD system are likely equivalent. In conclusion, the study (i) proved that clinical staging of cirrhosis based on seven items/stages had higher prognostic value than the five-stage model and (ii) confirmed the validity of the MELD criteria vs. clinical assessment.

SUBMITTER: Huang CH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC7711993 | biostudies-literature | 2020 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Hepatic Encephalopathy and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis Improve Cirrhosis Outcome Prediction: A Modified Seven-Stage Model as a Clinical Alternative to MELD.

Huang Chien-Hao CH Tseng Hsiao-Jung HJ Amodio Piero P Chen Yu-Ling YL Wang Sheng-Fu SF Chang Shang-Hung SH Hsieh Sen-Yung SY Lin Chun-Yen CY

Journal of personalized medicine 20201022 4

Classification of cirrhosis based on clinical stages is rapid and based on five stages at present. Two other relevant events, hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), can be considered in a clinical perspective but no study has implemented a seven-stage classification and confirmed its value before. In addition, long-term validation of the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) in large cohorts of patients with cirrhosis and comparison with clinical findings are ...[more]

PMID: 33105871

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Project description:Background & aimsBacterial infections, in particular a spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP), are a major threat in patients with liver cirrhosis. Recently, it has been shown that the impact on mortality might be underestimated by established risk-scores. Onset of infection was suggested to define a distinct stage of cirrhosis. However, it remains unclear whether all stages of decompensated cirrhosis are equally affected. Moreover, if there is such a distinct stage, it must be determined whether it is reversible after the infection has resolved. In this study we aimed to further analyze the impact of a current as well as a resolved SBP in different stages of decompensated liver cirrhosis.MethodsA number of 579 patients with liver cirrhosis and ascites were included. MELD-score was used to determine the stage of liver disease. Low (<15), intermediate (15-25) and high (>25) MELD-groups were compared. Patients were followed up for 90 days. Primary endpoint was overall mortality. Statistical analyses were performed using the log-rank test, Cox regression and competing risk analysis.ResultsMortality was significantly higher in patients with nosocomial-acquired SBP (nSBP) compared to patients without SBP (p<0.001;HR = 2.05). However, the most prominent difference in mortality was documented in the intermediate MELD-group (nSBP: p = 0.02;HR = 2.10). Importantly, mortality in nSBP patients remained increased even after the initial nSBP episode had resolved (p<0.01;HR = 1.90). Again, this was only significant in those with intermediate MELD-scores (p = 0.02;HR = 2.28). While a current as well as a resolved nSBP were significantly linked to a higher mortality, neither of them did increase the likelihood for liver transplantation.ConclusionsDevelopment of nSBP is independently associated with increased mortality supporting the concept of a distinct status of cirrhosis. Importantly, the prognosis remains unfavorable even after resolution of nSBP. This could be particularly relevant for patients with intermediate MELD-scores, who have limited chances for a donor liver.

Dataset Information

Hepatic Encephalopathy and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis Improve Cirrhosis Outcome Prediction: A Modified Seven-Stage Model as a Clinical Alternative to MELD.

Publications

Hepatic Encephalopathy and Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis Improve Cirrhosis Outcome Prediction: A Modified Seven-Stage Model as a Clinical Alternative to MELD.

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