Dataset Information

Using long-term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models.

ABSTRACT: Predicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography in a boreal Picea-Sphagnum bog in response to a gradient of whole ecosystem warming manipulations of up to +9°C, using five years of observational data. In spring, seven equally best-performing models for Larix utilized the accumulation of growing degree days as a common driver for temperature forcing. For Picea, the best two models were sequential models requiring winter chilling before spring forcing temperature is accumulated. In shrub, parallel models with chilling and forcing requirements occurring simultaneously were identified as the best models. Autumn models were substantially improved when a CO₂ parameter was included. Overall, the combination of experimental manipulations and multiple years of observations combined with variation in weather provided the framework to rule out a large number of candidate models and to identify best spring and autumn models for each plant functional type.

SUBMITTER: Schadel C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10423976 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Using long-term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models.

Schädel Christina C Seyednasrollah Bijan B Hanson Paul J PJ Hufkens Koen K Pearson Kyle J KJ Warren Jeffrey M JM Richardson Andrew D AD

Plant-environment interactions (Hoboken, N.J.) 20230629 4

Predicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography ...[more]

PMID: 37583877

Similar Datasets

Project description:Phenological models are built upon an understanding of the influence of environmental factors on plant phenology, and serve as effective tools for predicting plant phenological changes. However, the differences in phenological model predictive performance under different climate change scenarios have been rarely studied. In this study, we parameterized thirteen spring phenology models, including six one-phase models and seven two-phase models, by combining phenological observations and meteorological data. Using climatic data from two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, namely SSP126 (high mitigation and low emission) and SSP585 (no mitigation and high emission), we predicted spring phenology in Germany from 2021 to 2100, and compared the impacts of dormancy phases and driving factors on model predictive performance. The results showed that the average correlation coefficient between the predicted start of growing season (SOS) by the 13 models and the observed values exceeded 0.72, with the highest reaching 0.80. All models outperformed the NULL model (Mean of SOS), and the M1 model (driven by photoperiod and forcing temperature) performed the best for all the tree species. In the SSP126 scenario, the average SOS advanced initially and then gradually shifted towards a delay starting around 2070. In the SSP585 scenario, the average SOS advanced gradually at a rate of approximately 0.14 days per year. Moreover, the standard deviation of the simulated SOS by the 13 spring phenology models exhibited a significant increase at a rate of 0.04 days per year. On average, two-phase models exhibited larger standard deviations than one-phase models after approximately 2050. Models driven solely by temperature showed larger standard deviations after 2060 compared to models driven by both temperature and photoperiod. Our findings suggest investigating the release mechanisms of endodormancy phase and incorporating new insights into future phenological models to better simulate the changes in plant phenology.

Project description:BackgroundIn woody plants from temperate regions, adaptation to the local climate results in annual cycles of growth and dormancy, and optimal regulation of these cycles are critical for growth, long-term survival, and competitive success. In this study we have investigated the genetic background to growth phenology in a Salix pedigree by assessing genetic and phenotypic variation in growth cessation, leaf senescence and bud burst in different years and environments. A previously constructed linkage map using the same pedigree and anchored to the annotated genome of P. trichocarpa was improved in target regions and used for QTL analysis of the traits. The major aims in this study were to map QTLs for phenology traits in Salix, and to identify candidate genes in QTL hot spots through comparative mapping with the closely related Populus trichocarpa.ResultsAll traits varied significantly among genotypes and the broad-sense heritabilities ranged between 0.5 and 0.9, with the highest for leaf senescence. In total across experiment and years, 80 QTLs were detected. For individual traits, the QTLs explained together from 21.5 to 56.5% of the variation. Generally each individual QTL explained a low amount of the variation but three QTLs explained above 15% of the variation with one QTL for leaf senescence explaining 34% of the variation. The majority of the QTLs were recurrently identified across traits, years and environments. Two hotspots were identified on linkage group (LG) II and X where narrow QTLs for all traits co-localized.ConclusionsThis study provides the most detailed analysis of QTL detection for phenology in Salix conducted so far. Several hotspot regions were found where QTLs for different traits and QTLs for the same trait but identified during different years co-localised. Many QTLs co-localised with QTLs found in poplar for similar traits that could indicate common pathways for these traits in Salicaceae. This study is an important first step in identifying QTLs and candidate genes for phenology traits in Salix.

Dataset Information

Using long-term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models.

Publications

Using long-term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets