Dataset Information

No trends in spring and autumn phenology during the global warming hiatus.

ABSTRACT: Phenology plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, and surface energy fluxes and is sensitive to climate change. The global mean surface air temperature data indicate a global warming hiatus between 1998 and 2012, while its impacts on global phenology remains unclear. Here we use long-term satellite and FLUXNET records to examine phenology trends in the northern hemisphere before and during the warming hiatus. Our results based on the satellite record show that the phenology change rate slowed down during the warming hiatus. The analysis of the long-term FLUXNET measurements, mainly within the warming hiatus, shows that there were no widespread advancing (or delaying) trends in spring (or autumn) phenology. The lack of widespread phenology trends partly led to the lack of widespread trends in spring and autumn carbon fluxes. Our findings have significant implications for understanding the responses of phenology to climate change and the climate-carbon feedbacks.

SUBMITTER: Wang X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6546754 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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No trends in spring and autumn phenology during the global warming hiatus.

Wang Xufeng X Xiao Jingfeng J Li Xin X Cheng Guodong G Ma Mingguo M Zhu Gaofeng G Altaf Arain M M Andrew Black T T Jassal Rachhpal S RS

Nature communications 20190603 1

Phenology plays a fundamental role in regulating photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, and surface energy fluxes and is sensitive to climate change. The global mean surface air temperature data indicate a global warming hiatus between 1998 and 2012, while its impacts on global phenology remains unclear. Here we use long-term satellite and FLUXNET records to examine phenology trends in the northern hemisphere before and during the warming hiatus. Our results based on the satellite record show that ...[more]

PMID: 31160586

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Project description:BackgroundIn woody plants from temperate regions, adaptation to the local climate results in annual cycles of growth and dormancy, and optimal regulation of these cycles are critical for growth, long-term survival, and competitive success. In this study we have investigated the genetic background to growth phenology in a Salix pedigree by assessing genetic and phenotypic variation in growth cessation, leaf senescence and bud burst in different years and environments. A previously constructed linkage map using the same pedigree and anchored to the annotated genome of P. trichocarpa was improved in target regions and used for QTL analysis of the traits. The major aims in this study were to map QTLs for phenology traits in Salix, and to identify candidate genes in QTL hot spots through comparative mapping with the closely related Populus trichocarpa.ResultsAll traits varied significantly among genotypes and the broad-sense heritabilities ranged between 0.5 and 0.9, with the highest for leaf senescence. In total across experiment and years, 80 QTLs were detected. For individual traits, the QTLs explained together from 21.5 to 56.5% of the variation. Generally each individual QTL explained a low amount of the variation but three QTLs explained above 15% of the variation with one QTL for leaf senescence explaining 34% of the variation. The majority of the QTLs were recurrently identified across traits, years and environments. Two hotspots were identified on linkage group (LG) II and X where narrow QTLs for all traits co-localized.ConclusionsThis study provides the most detailed analysis of QTL detection for phenology in Salix conducted so far. Several hotspot regions were found where QTLs for different traits and QTLs for the same trait but identified during different years co-localised. Many QTLs co-localised with QTLs found in poplar for similar traits that could indicate common pathways for these traits in Salicaceae. This study is an important first step in identifying QTLs and candidate genes for phenology traits in Salix.

Project description:Although recent global warming trends in air temperature are not as pronounced as those observed only one decade ago, global mean temperature is still at a very high level. Does plant phenology - which is believed to be a suitable indicator of climate change - respond in a similar way, that is, does it still mirror recent temperature variations? We explored in detail long-term flowering onset dates of snowdrop, cherry, and lime tree and relevant spring temperatures at three sites in Germany (1901-2012) using the Bayesian multiple change-point approach. We investigated whether mean spring temperature changes were amplified or slowed down in the past decade and how plant phenology responded to the most recent temperature changes. Incorporating records with different end points (i.e., 2002 and 2012), we compared differences in trends and inferred possible differences caused by extrapolating phenological and meteorological data. The new multiple-change point approach is characterized by an enhanced structure and greater flexibility compared to the one change point model. However, the highest model probabilities for phenological (meteorological) records were still obtained for the one change point (linear) model. Marked warming trends in the recent decade were only revealed for mean temperatures of March to May, here better described with one or two change point models. In the majority of cases analyzed, changes in temperatures were well mirrored by phenological changes. However, temperatures in March to May were linked to less strongly advancing onset dates for lime tree flowering during the period 1901-2012, pointing to the likely influence of photoperiodic constraints or unfulfilled chilling requirements. Due to the slowdown of temperature increase, analyses conducted on records ending in 2002 demonstrated distinct differences when compared with records ending in 2012. Extrapolation of trends could therefore (along with the choice of the statistical method) lead to distinctly different results and most recent data should be integrated in order not to over- or underestimate future phenological changes.

Dataset Information

No trends in spring and autumn phenology during the global warming hiatus.

Publications

No trends in spring and autumn phenology during the global warming hiatus.

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