Dataset Information

Maternal vaccination against RSV can substantially reduce childhood mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: A mathematical modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of childhood mortality in infants below 6 months of age. In low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), the public health burden is substantial and resources are limited. It is critical to inform decision makers about effectiveness of new interventions.

Methods

We developed a mathematical model where individual RSV subtype A (RSV-A) and B (RSV-B) maternally derived neutralizing titers were predicted at time of birth after maternal vaccination with the RSV prefusion F protein-based vaccine. We estimated the subsequent duration of vaccine-induced immunity and compared this to the age at time of death distribution in the RSV GOLD Mortality Database to predict the potential impact of maternal vaccination on RSV-related childhood mortality. We used country-specific timing of antenatal care visits distributions and mortality estimates to make country-specific predictions for number of cases averted.

Findings

The model predicts that on average a neonate born at 40 weeks gestational age will be protected between 6 and 7 months from RSV-A and approximately 5 months from RSV-B related mortality. We estimated the potential impact of RSV-related mortality for in-hospital and out-of-hospital cases in LMICs and predicted that in 51 GAVI-eligible countries maternal vaccination could avert between 55% and 63% of the RSV-related in-hospital mortality cases below 6 months of age.

Interpretation

We show that maternal vaccination could substantially decrease RSV-A and RSV-B related in-hospital and out-of-hospital mortality in LMICs in the first 6 months of life.

SUBMITTER: Willemsen JE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10498305 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Maternal vaccination against RSV can substantially reduce childhood mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: A mathematical modeling study.

Willemsen Joukje E JE Borghans José A M JAM Bont Louis J LJ Drylewicz Julia J

Vaccine: X 20230901

<h4>Background</h4>Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of childhood mortality in infants below 6 months of age. In low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), the public health burden is substantial and resources are limited. It is critical to inform decision makers about effectiveness of new interventions.<h4>Methods</h4>We developed a mathematical model where individual RSV subtype A (RSV-A) and B (RSV-B) maternally derived neutralizing titers were predicted at time of bir ...[more]

PMID: 37711264

Similar Datasets

Project description:BackgroundThe expansion of childhood vaccination programs in low and middle income countries has been a substantial public health success story. Indicators of the performance of intervention programmes such as coverage levels and numbers covered are typically measured through national statistics or at the scale of large regions due to survey design, administrative convenience or operational limitations. These mask heterogeneities and 'coldspots' of low coverage that may allow diseases to persist, even if overall coverage is high. Hence, to decrease inequities and accelerate progress towards disease elimination goals, fine-scale variation in coverage should be better characterized.MethodsUsing measles as an example, cluster-level Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data were used to map vaccination coverage at 1?km spatial resolution in Cambodia, Mozambique and Nigeria for varying age-group categories of children under five years, using Bayesian geostatistical techniques built on a suite of publicly available geospatial covariates and implemented via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.ResultsMeasles vaccination coverage was found to be strongly predicted by just 4-5 covariates in geostatistical models, with remoteness consistently selected as a key variable. The output 1?×?1?km maps revealed significant heterogeneities within the three countries that were not captured using province-level summaries. Integration with population data showed that at the time of the surveys, few districts attained the 80% coverage, that is one component of the WHO Global Vaccine Action Plan 2020 targets.ConclusionThe elimination of vaccine-preventable diseases requires a strong evidence base to guide strategies and inform efficient use of limited resources. The approaches outlined here provide a route to moving beyond large area summaries of vaccination coverage that mask epidemiologically-important heterogeneities to detailed maps that capture subnational vulnerabilities. The output datasets are built on open data and methods, and in flexible format that can be aggregated to more operationally-relevant administrative unit levels.

Project description:BackgroundPregnancy and early infancy are considered to be the vulnerable phases for severe influenza infection causing morbidity and mortality. Despite WHO recommendations, influenza is not included in the immunization programs of many low- and middle-income countries. This systematic review is aimed at identifying barriers and facilitators for maternal influenza vaccination amongst the perinatal women and their health care providers in low- and middle-income countries.MethodsWe selected 11 studies from the 1669 records identified from PubMed, CABI, EMBASE and Global Health databases. Studies related to both pandemic and routine influenza vaccination and studies conducted amongst women in the antenatal as well as postnatal period were included. Both qualitative, quantitative, cross-sectional and interventional studies were included.ResultsKnowledge about influenza disease, perception of the disease severity during pregnancy and risk to the foetus/newborn and perceived benefits of influenza vaccination during pregnancy were associated with increased uptake of influenza vaccination during pregnancy. Recommendation by health care provider, vaccination in previous pregnancy and availability of vaccine in public health system facilitated vaccine uptake. High parity, higher education, vaccination in the later months of pregnancy, less than 4 antenatal visits, concerns about vaccine safety and negative publicity in media were identified as barriers for influenza vaccination. Lack of government recommendation, concerns about safety and effectiveness and distrust in manufacturer were the barriers for the healthcare providers to recommend vaccination.ConclusionWhile availability of influenza vaccine in public health system can be a key to the success of vaccine implementation program, increasing the awareness about need and benefits of maternal influenza vaccination amongst pregnant women as well as their health care providers is crucial to improve the acceptance of maternal influenza vaccination in low and middle-income countries.

Project description:BackgroundThis systematic review aimed to describe common aetiologies of severe and non-severe community acquired pneumonia among children aged 1 month to 9 years in low- and middle-income countries.MethodsWe searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PubMed online databases for studies published from January 2010 to August 30, 2020. We included studies on acute community-acquired pneumonia or acute lower respiratory tract infection with ≥1 year of continuous data collection; clear consistent case definition for pneumonia; >1 specimen type (except empyema studies where only pleural fluid was required); testing for >1 pathogen including both viruses and bacteria. Two researchers reviewed the studies independently. Results were presented as a narrative summary. Quality of evidence was assessed with the Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies. The study was registered on PROSPERO [CRD42020206830].ResultsWe screened 5184 records; 1305 duplicates were removed. The remaining 3879 titles and abstracts were screened. Of these, 557 articles were identified for full-text review, and 55 met the inclusion criteria - 10 case-control studies, three post-mortem studies, 11 surveillance studies, eight cohort studies, five cross-sectional studies, 12 studies with another design and six studies that included patients with pleural effusions or empyema. Studies which described disease by severity showed higher bacterial detection (Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus) in severe vs non-severe cases. The most common virus causing severe disease was respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Pathogens varied by age, with RSV and adenovirus more common in younger children. Influenza and atypical bacteria were more common in children 5-14 years than younger children. Malnourished and HIV-infected children had higher rates of pneumonia due to bacteria or tuberculosis.ConclusionsSeveral viral and bacterial pathogens were identified as important targets for prevention and treatment. Bacterial pathogens remain an important cause of moderate to severe disease, particularly in children with comorbidities despite widespread PCV and Hib vaccination.

Project description:BackgroundIntroduction of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination has been slow in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) because of resource constraints and worldwide shortage of vaccine supplies. To help inform WHO recommendations, we modelled various HPV vaccination strategies to examine the optimal use of limited vaccine supplies and best allocation of scarce resources in LMICs in the context of the WHO global call to eliminate cervical cancer as a public health problem.MethodsIn this mathematical modelling analysis, we developed HPV-ADVISE LMIC, a transmission-dynamic model of HPV infection and diseases calibrated to four LMICs: India, Vietnam, Uganda, and Nigeria. For different vaccination strategies that encompassed use of a nine-valent vaccine (or a two-valent or four-valent vaccine assuming high cross-protection), we estimated three outcomes: reduction in the age-standardised rate of cervical cancer, number of doses needed to prevent one case of cervical cancer (NNV; as a measure of efficiency), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; in 2017 international $ per disability-adjusted life-year [DALY] averted). We examined different vaccination strategies by varying the ages of routine HPV vaccination and number of age cohorts vaccinated, the population targeted, and the number of doses used. In our base case, we assumed 100% lifetime protection against HPV-16, HPV-18, HPV-31, HPV-33, HPV-45, HPV-52, and HPV-58; vaccination coverage of 80%; and a time horizon of 100 years. For the cost-effectiveness analysis, we used a 3% discount rate. Elimination of cervical cancer was defined as an age-standardised incidence of less than four cases per 100 000 woman-years.FindingsWe predicted that HPV vaccination could lead to cervical cancer elimination in Vietnam, India, and Nigeria, but not in Uganda. Compared with no vaccination, strategies that involved vaccinating girls aged 9-14 years with two doses were predicted to be the most efficient and cost-effective in all four LMICs. NNV ranged from 78 to 381 and ICER ranged from $28 per DALY averted to $1406 per DALY averted depending on the country. The most efficient and cost-effective strategies were routine vaccination of girls aged 14 years, with or without a later switch to routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years, and routine vaccination of girls aged 9 years with a 5-year extended interval between doses and a catch-up programme at age 14 years. Vaccinating boys (aged 9-14 years) or women aged 18 years or older resulted in substantially higher NNVs and ICERs.InterpretationWe identified two strategies that could maximise efforts to prevent cervical cancer in LMICs given constraints on vaccine supplies and costs and that would allow a maximum of LMICs to introduce HPV vaccination.FundingWorld Health Organization, Canadian Institute of Health Research, Fonds de recherche du Québec-Santé, Compute Canada, PATH, and The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.TranslationsFor the French and Spanish translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Dataset Information

Maternal vaccination against RSV can substantially reduce childhood mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: A mathematical modeling study.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Publications

Maternal vaccination against RSV can substantially reduce childhood mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: A mathematical modeling study.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets