Dataset Information

Illicit trade and real prices of cigarettes in Chile.

ABSTRACT:

Introduction

The tobacco industry claims that tobacco taxes are responsible for increased illicit trade in Chile, which they estimated at 37% in 2022. However, the evolution of cigarette consumption, estimated from population surveys, and of tax-paying cigarettes shows a decreasing penetration of illicit trade since 2018.

Methods

A gap analysis was used to estimate the evolution of illicit trade based on an arithmetic identity stating that total national cigarette consumption over a given period is equal to the registered consumption as paying taxes plus the cigarettes that are consumed nationally without paying taxes.

Results

Illicit trade penetration in Chile was around 10% in 2020, less than half of what the tobacco industry claimed. In addition, the evolution of real prices of cigarettes, calculated using tax collection data, indicates that real prices net of tobacco taxes increased significantly during 2015-2021, a period with no changes in tobacco taxation. The cheapest cigarettes, presumably competing with illicit cigarettes, registered the most significant price increase.

Conclusions

Claims of increasing illicit trade penetration in Chile are unfounded and are not supported by data on consumption and tax-paying cigarettes.

SUBMITTER: Paraje G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10519129 | biostudies-literature | 2023

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Illicit trade and real prices of cigarettes in Chile.

Paraje Guillermo G Pruzzo Luca L Muñoz Mauricio Flores MF

Tobacco induced diseases 20230925

<h4>Introduction</h4>The tobacco industry claims that tobacco taxes are responsible for increased illicit trade in Chile, which they estimated at 37% in 2022. However, the evolution of cigarette consumption, estimated from population surveys, and of tax-paying cigarettes shows a decreasing penetration of illicit trade since 2018.<h4>Methods</h4>A gap analysis was used to estimate the evolution of illicit trade based on an arithmetic identity stating that total national cigarette consumption over ...[more]

PMID: 37753196

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Project description:SignificanceThe US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) is considering a very low nicotine content (VLNC) product standard to substantially reduce nicotine in cigarettes. We examined whether learning about a potential VLNC standard increased smokers' interest in illicit purchases of cigarettes with regular nicotine content if such a standard were adopted.MethodsParticipants were a national convenience sample of 1712 US adult smokers. In an online experiment, we randomly assigned smokers to view information about a new VLNC standard (experimental condition) or no information (control condition). The experimental condition explained that a VLNC standard would remove 95% of the nicotine in cigarettes and would require stores to only sell VLNC cigarettes. Then, the survey assessed smokers' interest in purchasing regular cigarettes from three illicit sources.ResultsSmokers who learned about the VLNC standard were more likely to be very or extremely interested in purchasing regular cigarettes illicitly from a Web site compared to smokers in the control group (24% vs. 16%, p < .001). They were also more interested in illicitly buying cigarettes from a street vendor (19% vs. 13%, p < .001) and a store on an Indian reservation (28% vs. 22%, p < .05), compared to the control. The impact of learning about the VLNC standard on interest in illicit purchases did not differ by smoking frequency or current e-cigarette use.ConclusionsA VLNC standard could increase smokers' interest in illicit purchases of regular nicotine cigarettes. To prevent VLNC-induced illicit trade from undermining public health, FDA should consider proven measures such as track and trace for these products.ImplicationsLittle is known about how a VLNC cigarette standard would affect consumer interest in regular content cigarettes purchased from illicit sources (eg, the Internet). We found that smokers informed about a potential VLNC product standard had greater interest in illicit cigarette purchases, compared to controls. This suggests the importance of proactive measures accompanying a VLNC standard, such as track-and-trace cigarette packaging regulations and communication campaigns, in order to maximize the standard's public health impact.

Dataset Information

Illicit trade and real prices of cigarettes in Chile.

Introduction

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Illicit trade and real prices of cigarettes in Chile.

Similar Datasets

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