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Scale-dependent changes in ecosystem temporal stability over six decades of succession.

ABSTRACT: A widely assumed, but largely untested, tenet in ecology is that ecosystem stability tends to increase over succession. We rigorously test this idea using 60-year continuous data of old field succession across 480 plots nested within 10 fields. We found that ecosystem temporal stability increased over succession at the larger field scale (γ stability) but not at the local plot scale (α stability). Increased spatial asynchrony among plots within fields increased γ stability, while temporal increases in species stability and decreases in species asynchrony offset each other, resulting in no increase in α stability at the local scale. Furthermore, we found a notable positive diversity-stability relationship at the larger but not local scale, with the increased γ stability at the larger scale associated with increasing functional diversity later in succession. Our results emphasize the importance of spatial scale in assessing ecosystem stability over time and how it relates to biodiversity.

SUBMITTER: Meng Y

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10558118 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Scale-dependent changes in ecosystem temporal stability over six decades of succession.

Meng Yani Y Li Shao-Peng SP Wang Shaopeng S Meiners Scott J SJ Jiang Lin L

Science advances 20231006 40

A widely assumed, but largely untested, tenet in ecology is that ecosystem stability tends to increase over succession. We rigorously test this idea using 60-year continuous data of old field succession across 480 plots nested within 10 fields. We found that ecosystem temporal stability increased over succession at the larger field scale (γ stability) but not at the local plot scale (α stability). Increased spatial asynchrony among plots within fields increased γ stability, while temporal increa ...[more]

PMID: 37801504

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Project description:Background and aimsLiver cancer is one of the most dominant malignant tumors in the world. The trends of liver cancer mortality over the past six decades have been tracked in the epidemic region of Qidong, China. Using epidemiological tools, we explore the dynamic changes in age-standardized rates to characterize important aspects of liver cancer etiology and prevention.MethodsMortality data of liver cancer in Qidong from 1958 to 1971 (death retrospective survey) and from 1972 to 2017 (cancer registration) were tabulated for the crude rate (CR), and age-standardized rate and age-birth cohorts. The average annual percentage change was calculated by the Joinpoint Regression Program.ResultsThe natural death rate during 1958-2017 decreased from 9‰ to 5.4‰ and then increased to 8‰ as the population aged; cancer mortality rates rose continuously from 57/105 to 240/105. Liver cancer mortality increased from 20/105 to 80/105, and then dropped to less than 52/105 in 2017. Liver cancer deaths in 1972-2017 accounted for 30.53% of all cancers, with a CR of 60.48/105, age-standardized rate China (ASRC) of 34.78/105, and ASRW (world) of 45.71/105. Other key features were the CR for males and females of 91.86/105 and 29.92/105, respectively, with a sex ratio of 3.07:1. Period analysis showed that the ASRs for mortality of the age groups under 54 years old had a significant decreasing trend. Importantly, birth cohort analysis showed that the mortality rate of liver cancer in 40-44, 35-39, 30-34, 25-29, 20-24, 15-19 years cohort decreased considerably, but the rates in 70-74, and 75+ increased.ConclusionsThe crude mortality rate of liver cancer in Qidong has experienced trends from lower to higher levels, and from continued increase at a high plateau to most recently a gradual decline, and a change greatest in younger people. Many years of comprehensive prevention and intervention measures have influenced the decline of the liver cancer epidemic in this area. The reduction of intake levels of aflatoxin might be one of the most significant factors as evidenced by the dramatic decline of exposure biomarkers in this population during the past three decades.

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Scale-dependent changes in ecosystem temporal stability over six decades of succession.

Publications

Scale-dependent changes in ecosystem temporal stability over six decades of succession.

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