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Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures.

ABSTRACT: A recent rise in the global brewery sector has increased the demand for high-quality, late summer hops. The effects of ongoing and predicted climate change on the yield and aroma of hops, however, remain largely unknown. Here, we combine meteorological measurements and model projections to assess the climate sensitivity of the yield, alpha content and cone development of European hops between 1970 and 2050 CE, when temperature increases by 1.4 °C and precipitation decreases by 24 mm. Accounting for almost 90% of all hop-growing regions, our results from Germany, the Czech Republic and Slovenia show that hop ripening started approximately 20 days earlier, production declined by almost 0.2 t/ha/year, and the alpha content decreased by circa 0.6% when comparing data before and after 1994 CE. A predicted decline in hop yield and alpha content of 4-18% and 20-31% by 2050 CE, respectively, calls for immediate adaptation measures to stabilize an ever-growing global sector.

SUBMITTER: Mozny M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10564787 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures.

Mozny Martin M Trnka Miroslav M Vlach Vojtech V Zalud Zdenek Z Cejka Tomas T Hajkova Lenka L Potopova Vera V Semenov Mikhail A MA Semeradova Daniela D Büntgen Ulf U

Nature communications 20231010 1

A recent rise in the global brewery sector has increased the demand for high-quality, late summer hops. The effects of ongoing and predicted climate change on the yield and aroma of hops, however, remain largely unknown. Here, we combine meteorological measurements and model projections to assess the climate sensitivity of the yield, alpha content and cone development of European hops between 1970 and 2050 CE, when temperature increases by 1.4 °C and precipitation decreases by 24 mm. Accounting ...[more]

PMID: 37816707

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Project description:IntroductionHeatstroke mortality is highest among older adults aged 65 years and older, and the risk is even doubled among those aged 75 years and older. The incidence of heatstroke is expected to increase in the future with elevated temperatures owing to climate change. In the context of a super-aged society, we examined possible adaptation measures in Japan that could prevent heatstroke among older people using an epidemiological survey combined with mathematical modeling.MethodsTo identify possible interventions, we conducted a cross-sectional survey, collecting information on heatstroke episodes from 2018 to 2019 among people aged 75 years and older. Responses were analyzed from 576 participants, and propensity score matching was used to adjust for measurable confounders and used to estimate the effect sizes associated with variables that constitute possible interventions. Subsequently, a weather-driven statistical model was used to predict heatstroke-related ambulance transports. We projected the incidence of heatstroke-related transports until the year 2100, with and without adaptation measures.ResultsThe risk factor with the greatest odds ratio (OR) of heatstroke among older adults was living alone (OR 2.5, 95% confidence interval: 1.2-5.4). Other possible risk factors included an inability to drink water independently and the absence of air conditioning. Using three climate change scenarios, a more than 30% increase in the incidence of heatstroke-related ambulance transports was anticipated for representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, as compared with a carbon-neutral scenario. Given 30% reduction in single living, a 15% reduction in the incidence of heatstroke is expected. Given 70% improvement in all three risk factors, a 40% reduction in the incidence can be expected.ConclusionPossible adaptation measures include providing support for older adults living alone, for those who have an inability to drink water and for those without air conditioning. To be comparable to carbon neutrality, future climate change under RCP 2.6 requires achieving a 30% relative reduction in all three identified risks at least from 2060; under RCP 4.5, a 70% reduction from 2050 at the latest is needed. In the case of RCP 8.5, the goal of heatstroke-related transports approaching RCP 1.9 cannot be achieved.

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Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures.

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Climate-induced decline in the quality and quantity of European hops calls for immediate adaptation measures.

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