Dataset Information

Dynamic evaluation based on acute-on-chronic liver failure predicts survival of patients after liver transplantation: a cohort study.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aims

Dynamic evaluation of critically ill patients is the key to predicting their outcomes. Most scores based on the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) utilize point-in-time assessment. This study mainly aimed to investigate the impact of dynamic clinical course change on post-liver transplantation (LT) survival.

Methods

This study included 637 adults (overall cohort) with benign end-stage liver diseases. The authors compared the MELD scores and our ACLF-based dynamic evaluation scores. Patients enrolled or transplanted with ACLF-3 were defined as the ACLF-3 cohort ( n =158). The primary outcome was 1-year mortality. ΔMELD and ΔCLIF-OF (Chronic Liver Failure-Organ Failure) represented the respective dynamic changes in liver transplant function. Discrimination was assessed using the area under the curve. A Cox regression analysis identified independent risk factors for specific organ failure and 1-year mortality.

Results

Patients were grouped into three groups: the deterioration group (D), the stable group (S), and the improvement group (I). The deterioration group (ΔCLIF-OF ≥2) was more likely to receive national liver allocation ( P =0.012) but experienced longer cold ischemia time ( P =0.006) than other groups. The area under the curves for ΔCLIF-OF were 0.752 for the entire cohort and 0.767 for ACLF-3 cohorts, both superior to ΔMELD ( P <0.001 for both). Compared to the improvement group, the 1-year mortality hazard ratios (HR) of the deterioration group were 12.57 (6.72-23.48) for the overall cohort and 7.00 (3.73-13.09) for the ACLF-3 cohort. Extrahepatic organs subscore change (HR=1.783 (1.266-2.512) for neurologic; 1.653 (1.205-2.269) for circulation; 1.906 (1.324-2.743) for respiration; 1.473 (1.097-1.976) for renal) were key to transplantation outcomes in the ACLF-3 cohort. CLIF-OF at LT (HR=1.193), ΔCLIF-OF (HR=1.354), and cold ischemia time (HR=1.077) were independent risk factors of mortality for the overall cohort, while ΔCLIF-OF (HR=1.384) was the only independent risk factor for the ACLF-3 cohort. Non-ACLF-3 patients showed a higher survival rate than patients with ACLF-3 in all groups ( P =0.002 for I, P =0.005 for S, and P =0.001 for D).

Conclusion

This was the first ACLF-based dynamic evaluation study. ΔCLIF-OF was a more powerful predictor of post-LT mortality than ΔMELD. Extrahepatic organ failures were core risk factors for ACLF-3 patients. CLIF-OF at LT, ΔCLIF-OF, and cold ischemia time were independent risk factors for post-LT mortality. Patients with a worse baseline condition and a deteriorating clinical course had the worst prognosis. Dynamic evaluation was important in risk stratification and recipient selection.

SUBMITTER: Zhang W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10583902 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Dynamic evaluation based on acute-on-chronic liver failure predicts survival of patients after liver transplantation: a cohort study.

Zhang Wei W Jin Pingbo P Liu Junfang J Wu Yue Y Wang Rongrong R Zhang Yuntao Y Shen Yan Y Zhang Min M Bai Xueli X Fung John J Liang Tingbo T

International journal of surgery (London, England) 20231001 10

<h4>Background and aims</h4>Dynamic evaluation of critically ill patients is the key to predicting their outcomes. Most scores based on the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) utilize point-in-time assessment. This study mainly aimed to investigate the impact of dynamic clinical course change on post-liver transplantation (LT) survival.<h4>Methods</h4>This study included 637 adults (overall cohort) with benign end-stage liver diseases. The authors c ...[more]

PMID: 37498133

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Project description:BackgroundLiver transplantation (LT) is an effective therapy for acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) but is limited by organ shortages. We aimed to identify an appropriate score for predicting the survival benefit of LT in HBV-related ACLF patients.MethodsHospitalized patients with acute deterioration of HBV-related chronic liver disease (n = 4577) from the Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH) open cohort were enrolled to evaluate the performance of five commonly used scores for predicting the prognosis and transplant survival benefit. The survival benefit rate was calculated to reflect the extended rate of the expected lifetime with vs. without LT.FindingsIn total, 368 HBV-ACLF patients received LT. They showed significantly higher 1-year survival than those on the waitlist in both the entire HBV-ACLF cohort (77.2%/52.3%, p < 0.001) and the propensity score matching cohort (77.2%/27.6%, p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) showed that the COSSH-ACLF II score performed best (AUROC 0.849) at identifying the 1-year risk of death on the waitlist and best (AUROC 0.864) at predicting 1-year outcome post-LT (COSSH-ACLFs/CLIF-C ACLFs/MELDs/MELD-Nas: AUROC 0.835/0.825/0.796/0.781; all p < 0.05). The C-indexes confirmed the high predictive value of COSSH-ACLF IIs. Survival benefit rate analyses showed that patients with COSSH-ACLF IIs 7-10 had a higher 1-year survival benefit rate from LT (39.2%-64.3%) than those with score <7 or >10. These results were prospectively validated.InterpretationCOSSH-ACLF IIs identified the risk of death on the waitlist and accurately predicted post-LT mortality and survival benefit for HBV-ACLF. Patients with COSSH-ACLF IIs 7-10 derived a higher net survival benefit from LT.FundingThis study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 81830073, No. 81771196) and the National Special Support Program for High-Level Personnel Recruitment (Ten-thousand Talents Program).

Project description:Background & aimsPatients with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) can be listed for liver transplantation (LT) because LT is the only curative treatment option. We evaluated whether the clinical course of ACLF, particularly ACLF-3, between the time of listing and LT affects 1-year post-transplant survival.MethodsWe identified patients from the United Network for Organ Sharing database who were transplanted within 28 days of listing and categorized them by ACLF grade at waitlist registration and LT, according to the EASL-CLIF definition.ResultsA total of 3,636 patients listed with ACLF-3 underwent LT within 28 days. Among those transplanted, 892 (24.5%) recovered to no ACLF or ACLF grade 1 or 2 (ACLF 0-2) and 2,744 (75.5%) had ACLF-3 at transplantation. One-year survival was 82.0% among those transplanted with ACLF-3 vs. 88.2% among those improving to ACLF 0-2 (p <0.001). Conversely, the survival of patients listed with ACLF 0-2 who progressed to ACLF-3 at LT (n = 2,265) was significantly lower than that of recipients who remained at ACLF 0-2 (n = 17,631) at the time of LT (83.8% vs. 90.2%, p <0.001). Cox modeling demonstrated that recovery from ACLF-3 to ACLF 0-2 at LT was associated with reduced 1-year mortality after transplantation (hazard ratio0.65; 95% CI 0.53-0.78). Improvement in circulatory failure, brain failure, and removal from mechanical ventilation were also associated with reduced post-LT mortality. Among patients >60 years of age, 1-year survival was significantly higher among those who improved from ACLF-3 to ACLF 0-2 than among those who did not.ConclusionsImprovement from ACLF-3 at listing to ACLF 0-2 at transplantation enhances post-LT survival, particularly in those who recovered from circulatory or brain failure, or were removed from the mechanical ventilator. The beneficial effect of improved ACLF on post-LT survival was also observed among patients >60 years of age.Lay summaryLiver transplantation (LT) for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3 (ACLF-3) significantly improves survival, but 1-year survival probability after LT remains lower than the expected outcomes for transplant centers. Our study reveals that among patients transplanted within 28 days of waitlist registration, improvement of ACLF-3 at listing to a lower grade of ACLF at transplantation significantly enhances post-transplant survival, even among patients aged 60 years or older. Subgroup analysis further demonstrates that improvement in circulatory failure, brain failure, or removal from mechanical ventilation have the strongest impact on post-transplant survival.

Project description:Background & aimsAcute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is usually associated with a precipitating event and results in the failure of other organ systems and high short-term mortality. Current prediction models fail to adequately estimate prognosis and need for liver transplantation (LT) in ACLF. This study develops and validates a dynamic prediction model for patients with ACLF that uses both longitudinal and survival data.MethodsAdult patients on the UNOS waitlist for LT between 11.01.2016-31.12.2019 were included. Repeated model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) measurements were jointly modelled with Cox survival analysis to develop the ACLF joint model (ACLF-JM). Model validation was carried out using separate testing data with area under curve (AUC) and prediction errors. An online ACLF-JM tool was created for clinical application.ResultsIn total, 30,533 patients were included. ACLF grade 1 to 3 was present in 16.4%, 10.4% and 6.2% of patients, respectively. The ACLF-JM predicted survival significantly (p <0.001) better than the MELD-Na score, both at baseline and during follow-up. For 28- and 90-day predictions, ACLF-JM AUCs ranged between 0.840-0.871 and 0.833-875, respectively. Compared to MELD-Na, AUCs and prediction errors were improved by 23.1%-62.0% and 5%-37.6% respectively. Also, the ACLF-JM could have prioritized patients with relatively low MELD-Na scores but with a 4-fold higher rate of waiting list mortality.ConclusionsThe ACLF-JM dynamically predicts outcome based on current and past disease severity. Prediction performance is excellent over time, even in patients with ACLF-3. Therefore, the ACLF-JM could be used as a clinical tool in the evaluation of prognosis and treatment in patients with ACLF.Lay summaryAcute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) progresses rapidly and often leads to death. Liver transplantation is used as a treatment and the sickest patients are treated first. In this study, we develop a model that predicts survival in ACLF and we show that the newly developed model performs better than the currently used model for ranking patients on the liver transplant waiting list.

Project description:Background & aimsUncertainties exist surrounding the timing of liver transplantation (LT) among patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure grade 3 (ACLF-3), regarding whether to accept a marginal quality donor organ to allow for earlier LT or wait for either an optimal organ offer or improvement in the number of organ failures, in order to increase post-LT survival.MethodsWe created a Markov decision process model to determine the optimal timing of LT among patients with ACLF-3 within 7 days of listing, to maximize overall 1-year survival probability.ResultsWe analyzed 6 groups of candidates with ACLF-3: patients age ≤60 or >60 years, patients with 3 organ failures alone or 4-6 organ failures, and hepatic or extrahepatic ACLF-3. Among all groups, LT yielded significantly greater overall survival probability vs. remaining on the waiting list for even 1 additional day (p <0.001), regardless of organ quality. Creation of 2-way sensitivity analyses, with variation in the probability of receiving an optimal organ and expected post-transplant mortality, indicated that overall survival is maximized by earlier LT, particularly among candidates >60 years old or with 4-6 organ failures. The probability of improvement from ACLF-3 to ACLF-2 does not influence these recommendations, as the likelihood of organ recovery was less than 10%.ConclusionDuring the first week after listing for patients with ACLF-3, earlier LT in general is favored over waiting for an optimal quality donor organ or for recovery of organ failures, with the understanding that the analysis is limited to consideration of only these 3 variables.Lay summaryIn the setting of grade 3 acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF-3), questions remain regarding the timing of transplantation in terms of whether to proceed with liver transplantation with a marginal donor organ or to wait for an optimal liver, and whether to transplant a patient with ACLF-3 or wait until improvement to ACLF-2. In this study, we used a Markov decision process model to demonstrate that earlier transplantation of patients listed with ACLF-3 maximizes overall survival, as opposed to waiting for an optimal donor organ or for improvement in the number of organ failures.

Dataset Information

Dynamic evaluation based on acute-on-chronic liver failure predicts survival of patients after liver transplantation: a cohort study.

Background and aims

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Dynamic evaluation based on acute-on-chronic liver failure predicts survival of patients after liver transplantation: a cohort study.

Similar Datasets

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