Development and validation of a dynamic survival prediction model for patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

ABSTRACT:

Background & aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is usually associated with a precipitating event and results in the failure of other organ systems and high short-term mortality. Current prediction models fail to adequately estimate prognosis and need for liver transplantation (LT) in ACLF. This study develops and validates a dynamic prediction model for patients with ACLF that uses both longitudinal and survival data.

Methods

Adult patients on the UNOS waitlist for LT between 11.01.2016-31.12.2019 were included. Repeated model for end-stage liver disease-sodium (MELD-Na) measurements were jointly modelled with Cox survival analysis to develop the ACLF joint model (ACLF-JM). Model validation was carried out using separate testing data with area under curve (AUC) and p

SUBMITTER: Goudsmit BFJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8570961 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature