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Development of a nomogram to predict survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

ABSTRACT: The prognosis of advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) patients remains poor due to limited efficacy of chemotherapy and difficulties in management. Thus, prediction of survival is crucial for the clinical management of advanced BTC. The aim was to develop and validate a nomogram to predict 6-month and 12-month survival in advanced BTC patients treated with chemotherapy. A multivariable Cox regression model was used to construct a nomogram in a training set (JCOG1113, a phase III trial comparing gemcitabine plus S-1 [GS] and gemcitabine plus cisplatin, n = 351). External validity of the nomogram was assessed using a test set (JCOG0805, a randomized, phase II trial comparing GS and S-1 alone, n = 100). Predictive performance was assessed in terms of discrimination and calibration. The constructed nomogram included lymph node metastasis, liver metastasis, carbohydrate antigen 19-9, carcinoembryonic antigen, albumin, and C-reactive protein. Uno's concordance index was 0.661 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.629-0.696) in the training set and 0.640 (95% CI 0.566-0.715) in the test set. The calibration plots for 6-month and 12-month survival showed good agreement in the two analysis sets. The present nomogram can facilitate prediction of the prognosis of advanced BTC patients treated with chemotherapy and help clinicians' prognosis-based decision-making.

SUBMITTER: Imaoka H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10700490 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development of a nomogram to predict survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

Imaoka Hiroshi H Ikeda Masafumi M Nomura Shogo S Morizane Chigusa C Okusaka Takuji T Ozaka Masato M Shimizu Satoshi S Yamazaki Kentaro K Okano Naohiro N Sugimori Kazuya K Shirakawa Hirofumi H Mizuno Nobumasa N Satoi Sohei S Yamaguchi Hironori H Sugimoto Rie R Gotoh Kunihito K Sano Keji K Asagi Akinori A Nakamura Kazuyoshi K Ueno Makoto M

Scientific reports 20231206 1

The prognosis of advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC) patients remains poor due to limited efficacy of chemotherapy and difficulties in management. Thus, prediction of survival is crucial for the clinical management of advanced BTC. The aim was to develop and validate a nomogram to predict 6-month and 12-month survival in advanced BTC patients treated with chemotherapy. A multivariable Cox regression model was used to construct a nomogram in a training set (JCOG1113, a phase III trial comparing g ...[more]

PMID: 38057434

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Project description:Gemcitabine combined with platinum/fluorouracil drugs is the standard first-line treatment for advanced biliary tract cancers (BTCs). We explored the safety and efficacy of toripalimab plus gemcitabine and S-1 (GS) as the first-line treatment for advanced BTCs. At a one-sided significance level of 0.025, a total of 50 patients could provide 80% power to show the efficacy at targeted progression-free survival (PFS) rate at 6 months of 70% versus 40% for the combined treatment. This single-arm, phase II study enrolled 50 patients with advanced BTCs who previously received no systemic treatment. The regimen was as follows: toripalimab (240 mg, i.v., d1), gemcitabine (1,000 mg/m2, i.v., d1 and d8), and S-1 (40-60 mg bid p.o., d1-14, Q21d). The primary endpoint was progression-free survival. The secondary endpoints included overall survival (OS), objective response rate (ORR), duration of response (DOR), and safety. The associations between response with PD-L1 expression, tumor mutational burden (TMB), and genetic variations were explored. Patients were enrolled from January 2019 to August 2020, with a median follow-up time of 24.0 months (IQR: 4.3-31.0 months). The 6-month PFS rate was 62%. The median PFS was 7.0 months (95% CI: 5.0-8.9 months), and median OS was 15.0 months (95% CI: 11.6-18.4 months). Forty-nine patients completed the evaluation for tumor response. The ORR was 30.6% (95% CI: 17.2%-44.0%), and the disease control rate was 87.8% (95% CI: 78.2%-97.3%). The most common treatment-related adverse events (TRAEs) were leukopenia (98.0%), neutropenia (92%), and anemia (86.0%). Grade III/IV TRAEs included leukopenia (38.0%), neutropenia (32%), skin rash (6%), anemia (2.0%), mucositis (2%), and immune-related colitis (2%). Among them, the grade III/IV immune-related adverse events (irAEs) were skin rash and colitis. In addition, biomarker analysis showed that negative PD-L1 expression and SMARCA4 mutation were significantly associated with worse survival outcomes, while no significant associations were observed for TP53, KRAS, or CDKN 2 A mutation as well as TMB. In conclusion, our data suggest that a regimen of toripalimab plus GS could improve PFS and OS with a good safety profile as a first-line treatment option for advanced BTC and warrants further verification.

Project description:IntroductionSystemic inflammatory markers have been validated as prognostic factors for patients with biliary tract cancer (BTC). The aim of this study was to evaluate specific immunologic prognostic markers and immune responses by analyzing preoperative plasma samples from a large prospectively collected biobank.MethodsExpression of 92 proteins representing adaptive and innate immune responses was investigated in plasma from 102 patients undergoing resection for BTC 2009-2017 (perihilar cholangiocarcinoma n=46, intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma n=27, gallbladder cancer n=29), by means of a high-throughput multiplexed immunoassay. Association with overall survival was analyzed by Cox regression, with internal validation and calibration. Tumor tissue bulk and single-cell gene expression of identified markers and receptors/ligands was analyzed in external cohorts.ResultsThree preoperative plasma markers were independently associated with survival: TRAIL, TIE2 and CSF1, with hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) 0.30 (0.16-0.56), 2.78 (1.20-6.48) and 4.02 (1.40-11.59) respectively. The discrimination of a preoperative prognostic model with the three plasma markers was assessed with concordance-index 0.70, while the concordance-index of a postoperative model with histopathological staging was 0.66. Accounting for subgroup differences, prognostic factors were assessed for each type of BTC. TRAIL and CSF1 were prognostic factors in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. In independent cohorts, TRAIL-receptor expression was higher in tumor tissue and seen in malignant cells, with TRAIL and CSF1 expressed by intra- and peritumoral immune cells. Intratumoral TRAIL-activity was decreased compared to peritumoral immune cells, while CSF1-activity was increased. The highest CSF1 activity was seen in intratumoral macrophages, while the highest TRAIL-activity was seen in peritumoral T-cells.DiscussionIn conclusion, three preoperative immunological plasma markers were prognostic for survival after surgery for BTC, providing good discrimination, even compared to postoperative pathology. TRAIL and CSF1, prognostic factors in intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, showed marked differences in expression and activity between intra- and peritumoral immune cells.

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Development of a nomogram to predict survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

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Development of a nomogram to predict survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

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