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Establishment of a Pretreatment Nomogram to Predict the 6-Month Mortality Rate of Patients with Advanced Biliary Tract Cancers Undergoing Gemcitabine-Based Chemotherapy.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The estimation of mortality risk among patients diagnosed with advanced cancer provides important information for clinicians and patients in clinical practice. Currently, gemcitabine-based chemotherapy regimens are the standard treatment for patients with advanced biliary tract cancer (BTC). We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict the 6-month mortality rate among patients with advanced BTC to help physicians evaluate treatment options and outcomes.

Patients

We conducted a retrospective analysis to evaluate the 6-month mortality rate among patients with advanced BTC who underwent gemcitabine-based chemotherapy from 2012 to 2018. Data regarding pretreatment factors and the clinical response to treatment were collected. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent factors for nomogram creation.

Results

A total of 202 advanced BTC patients who were treated with gemcitabine-based chemotherapy were included in this analysis. No difference in survival was identified between patients undergoing gemcitabine monotherapy and those treated with gemcitabine combined with other cytotoxic agents. The univariate analysis revealed 10 significant factors, while the multivariate analysis identified four independent factors, including gender, monocyte to lymphocyte ratio (MLR), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and liver metastasis, which were used to establish the nomogram. The performance of this nomogram for the prediction of 6-month mortality risk was found to be promising and feasible based on logistic regression.

Conclusion

A nomogram based on four independent pretreatment factors, including gender, MLR, ALP, and liver metastasis, was established to predict the 6-month mortality risk in patients with advanced BTC; it can provide clinicians and patients with additional information when evaluating treatment outcomes.

SUBMITTER: Wu CE

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8268608 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background & aimsGallbladder cancer (GBC) is known to have a female predominance while other biliary tract cancers (BTCs) have a male predominance. However, the role of female reproductive factors in BTC etiology remains unclear.MethodsWe pooled data from 19 studies of >1.5 million women participating in the Biliary Tract Cancers Pooling Project to examine the associations of parity, age at menarche, reproductive years, and age at menopause with BTC. Associations for age at menarche and reproductive years with BTC were analyzed separately for Asian and non-Asian women. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by study.ResultsDuring 21,681,798 person-years of follow-up, 875 cases of GBC, 379 of intrahepatic bile duct cancer (IHBDC), 450 of extrahepatic bile duct cancer (EHBDC), and 261 of ampulla of Vater cancer (AVC) occurred. High parity was associated with risk of GBC (HR ≥5 vs. 0 births 1.72; 95% CI 1.25-2.38). Age at menarche (HR per year increase 1.15; 95% CI 1.06-1.24) was associated with GBC risk in Asian women while reproductive years were associated with GBC risk (HR per 5 years 1.13; 95% CI 1.04-1.22) in non-Asian women. Later age at menarche was associated with IHBDC (HR 1.19; 95% CI 1.09-1.31) and EHBDC (HR 1.11; 95% CI 1.01-1.22) in Asian women only.ConclusionWe observed an increased risk of GBC with increasing parity. Among Asian women, older age at menarche was associated with increased risk for GBC, IHBDC, and EHBDC, while increasing reproductive years was associated with GBC in non-Asian women. These results suggest that sex hormones have distinct effects on cancers across the biliary tract that vary by geography.Lay summaryOur findings show that the risk of gallbladder cancer is increased among women who have given birth (especially women with 5 or more children). In women from Asian countries, later age at menarche increases the risk of gallbladder cancer, intrahepatic bile duct cancer and extrahepatic bile duct cancer. We did not see this same association in women from Western countries. Age at menopause was not associated with the risk of any biliary tract cancers.

Project description:ImportanceAdministration of gemcitabine-cisplatin, the current standard therapy for advanced biliary tract cancers, results in median progression-free survival and overall survival of 8.0 and 11.7 months, respectively. New treatments offering improved survival outcomes are therefore needed.ObjectiveTo evaluate the association between progression-free survival and the addition of nanoparticle albumin-bound (nab)-paclitaxel to gemcitabine-cisplatin for the treatment of patients with advanced biliary tract cancer.Design, setting, and participantsThis open-label, single-arm, phase 2 clinical trial conducted at the University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center and the Mayo Clinic in Phoenix, Arizona, enrolled 62 patients with advanced biliary tract cancers between April 14, 2015, and April 24, 2017.InterventionsPatients initially received gemcitabine, 1000 mg/m2, cisplatin, 25 mg/m2, and nab-paclitaxel, 125 mg/m2, on days 1 and 8 of 21-day cycles. Owing to hematologic adverse events among the first 32 patients enrolled, these starting doses were reduced to 800, 25, and 100 mg/m2, respectively, for the remaining 28 patients.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary trial end point was investigator-assessed progression-free survival in the intention-to-treat population.ResultsOf 60 patients who started treatment, the mean (SD) age was 58.4 (11.0) years, 38 (63%) had intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, 9 (15%) had extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma, 13 (22%) had gallbladder cancer, 47 (78%) had metastatic disease, and 13 (22%) had locally advanced disease. Median follow-up was 12.2 (95% CI, 9.4-19.4) months, and median progression-free survival was 11.8 (95% CI, 6.0 to 15.6) months. The partial response rate was 45%, and the disease control rate was 84%. Median overall survival was 19.2 months (95% CI, 13.2 months to not estimable). Patients in the safety population (n = 57) received a median of 6 (interquartile range, 3-11) cycles of treatment; 26 patients (46%) remained on their starting dose throughout the trial. Grade 3 or higher adverse events occurred in 58% of patients, and 9 patients (16%) withdrew owing to adverse events. Neutropenia was the most common grade 3 or higher adverse event, occurring in 19 patients (33%) overall. Post hoc analyses showed that treatment efficacy was not significantly associated with starting dose, tumor type, or disease status and that tolerability was improved with reduced- vs high-dose treatment.Conclusions and relevanceTreatment with nab-paclitaxel plus gemcitabine-cisplatin prolonged median progression-free survival and overall survival vs those reported for historical controls treated with gemcitabine-cisplatin alone. These findings will be tested in a phase 3 randomized clinical trial.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02392637.