Public mass shootings cause large surges in Americans’ engagement with gun policy
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PROVIDER: S-EPMC10726999 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Nov
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:ObjectiveTo determine whether restrictiveness-permissiveness of state gun laws or gun ownership are associated with mass shootings in the US.DesignCross sectional time series.Setting and populationUS gun owners from 1998-2015.ExposureAn annual rating between 0 (completely restrictive) and 100 (completely permissive) for the gun laws of all 50 states taken from a reference guide for gun owners traveling between states from 1998 to 2015. Gun ownership was estimated annually as the percentage of suicides committed with firearms in each state.Main outcome measureMass shootings were defined as independent events in which four or more people were killed by a firearm. Data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting System from 1998-2015 were used to calculate annual rates of mass shootings in each state. Mass shooting events and rates were further separated into those where the victims were immediate family members or partners (domestic) and those where the victims had other relationships with the perpetrator (non-domestic).ResultsFully adjusted regression analyses showed that a 10 unit increase in state gun law permissiveness was associated with a significant 11.5% (95% confidence interval 4.2% to 19.3%, P=0.002) higher rate of mass shootings. A 10% increase in state gun ownership was associated with a significant 35.1% (12.7% to 62.7%, P=0.001) higher rate of mass shootings. Partially adjusted regression analyses produced similar results, as did analyses restricted to domestic and non-domestic mass shootings.ConclusionsStates with more permissive gun laws and greater gun ownership had higher rates of mass shootings, and a growing divide appears to be emerging between restrictive and permissive states.
| S-EPMC6402045 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundGranular data on gun sales has been historically difficult to obtain. In 2016, California (CA) made monthly data from 1996 to 2015 publically available. Control charts are a method to analyze how a process changes over time in response to nonroutine events. We utilized this technique to study the impact of US mass shootings on CA gun sales.MethodsMonthly gun sales were provided by the CA Department of Justice and monthly fatalities from the CDC Wonder Death Certificate Registry. Mass shooting events were obtained from after-action reports, news media, and court proceedings. Time-ordered data were analyzed with control charts with 95% confidence intervals (upper control limit, lower control limit) using QiMacros.ResultsIndividual gun sales of 9,917,811 occurred in CA with a median monthly rate of 41,324 (range, 20,057-132,903). A median of 263 people lost their lives monthly from firearms (124 homicides, 128 suicides), totaling 53,975 fatalities from 1999 to 2015. Fifteen of 21 current deadliest mass shootings occurred during this study period with 40% from 2012 to 2015. Also, 36 school shootings occurred during the study (mean, 5 deaths; range, 0-33; 6 injuries; range, 0-23) with 31% in 2012 to 2015 at rate of 3 events/year versus 1.4 events/year in the 17 prior years (p < 0.05). Sales were generally consistent from 1996 to 2011 (except post-Columbine, Col). Starting in 2011, sales exceeded the 95% predicted upper control limit every single month. Before October 2011, there was no statistically significant sustained effect of mass shootings on sales (except Col); however, since a statistically significant proportional spike in sales occurred in the months immediately following every single deadliest mass shooting event. Every year since 2012, CA has strengthened gun laws in response to mass shootings yet sales have risen immediately preceding enactment of these laws each January.ConclusionGun sales are more frequent since 2012, with an additional increase following both mass shootings and legislative changes enacted in response to these shootings.Level of evidenceEpidemiology, level III.
| S-EPMC7369030 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We sought to examine support for gun polices by race and ethnicity, and among gun owning subgroups. We combined two waves of the National Survey of Gun Policy (January 2017 and 2019 [N = 3804]). We used chi-square tests to assess whether support for gun policies differed by race or ethnicity overall and among subgroups of gun owners. Most U.S. adults supported 17 of 21 gun-related policies. Among gun owners, Blacks supported six policies at higher levels than whites, including minimum age requirements for gun ownership and assault weapon and ammunition-related restrictions. Hispanic gun owners supported safe storage requirements at higher levels than white gun owners. While support differed by race and ethnicity for some policies, majorities of U.S. adults supported nearly all gun policies examine regardless of race. One notable exception, carrying a concealed gun on K-12 school grounds did not reach majority support among any subgroup. While tailored messaging may be appropriate in certain circumstances, it is important to highlight the similarities in support for evidence-based gun polices across racial and ethnic groups.
| S-EPMC8273872 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceDespite broad public support for gun safety policies, minimal policy implementation has occurred.ObjectiveTo investigate factors that encourage greater private support for and public action on gun safety policy.Design, setting, and participantsThree studies were conducted: a public opinion survey (Study 1) was conducted from January 8 to 22, 2019, and 2 experiments (Studies 2 and 3) were conducted from August 27 to October 17, 2019, and April 15 to 21, 2020, respectively. Adults living in the US were eligible to participate in Studies 1 and 3. Students 18 years and older participating in a research experience program were eligible to participate in Study 2. Study 1 was administered online by Ipsos, a market research company. A nationally representative sample of 1000 US adults was obtained from Ipsos' online KnowledgePanel, of whom 508 completed the public opinion survey. For Study 2, which was conducted in a university laboratory, 354 participants were recruited from a university research pool, all of whom completed the study. Study 3 was administered online by the market research company YouGov, which identified 727 US gun owners from its opt-in panel, from which it constructed a census-matched sample of 400 participants.ExposuresParticipants read a statement about the 2018 Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shooting. Content was manipulated as a 2 (corrective information vs no corrective information) × 2 (system changeable vs system not changeable) between-subjects factorial design with random assignment. The corrective information included polling data highlighting widespread support among gun owners for several gun safety policies. System changeable described gun safety policies passed by Florida's legislature.Main outcomes and measuresMain outcomes were support for gun safety policies and public disclosure of support.ResultsThe 3 studies included a total of 1262 participants (Study 1: 508 participants; weighted mean [SD] age, 47.7 [17.5] years; 261.9 women [51.6%]; 82.5 Hispanic [16.2%] and 60.3 Black [11.9%]; Study 2: 354 participants; mean [SD] age, 20.0 [2.3] years; 232 women [65.9%]; 100 Asian [28.3%] and 37 Black [10.5%]; Study 3: 400 participants; weighted mean [SD] age, 52.1 [16.4] years; 187.3 women [46.8%]; 295.5 White [73.9%], 44.5 Hispanic [11.1%], and 32.4 Black [8.1%]). Study 1 found that 63% to 91% of gun owners and 83% to 93% of non-gun owners supported key gun safety policies, yet both groups significantly underestimated gun owners' support for these policies by between 12% and 31%. Studies 2 and 3 found that exposure to corrective information was associated with a small increase in support for 2 gun safety policies of between 4% and 15%, both in terms of participants' privately held beliefs and the beliefs they would be willing to share publicly.Conclusions and relevanceThis survey study found that many US adults failed to recognize that most gun owners support key gun safety policies. Correcting this misperception was associated with greater private and public support for gun safety policy.
| S-EPMC7756237 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAssault weapon and large-capacity magazine bans are potential tools for policy makers to prevent public mass shootings. However, the efficacy of these bans is a continual source of debate. In an earlier study, we estimated the impact of the Federal Assault Weapons Ban (FAWB) on the number of public mass shooting events in the United States. This study provides an updated assessment with 3 additional years of firearm surveillance data to characterize the longer-term effects.ObjectiveThis study aims to estimate the impact of the FAWB on trends in public mass shootings from 1966 to 2022.MethodsWe used linear regression to estimate the impact of the FAWB on the 4-year simple moving average of annual public mass shootings, defined by events with 4 or more deaths in 24 hours, not including the perpetrator. The study period spans 1966 to 2022. The model includes indicator variables for both the FAWB period (1995-2004) and the period after its removal (2005-2022). These indicators were interacted with a linear time trend. Estimates were controlled for the national homicide rate. After estimation, the model provided counterfactual estimates of public mass shootings if the FAWB was never imposed and if the FAWB remained in place.ResultsThe overall upward trajectory in the number of public mass shootings substantially fell while the FAWB was in place. These trends are specific to events in which the perpetrator used an assault weapon or large-capacity magazine. Point estimates suggest the FAWB prevented up to 5 public mass shootings while the ban was active. A continuation of the FAWB and large-capacity magazine ban would have prevented up to 38 public mass shootings, but the CIs become wider as time moves further away from the period of the FAWB.ConclusionsThe FAWB, which included a ban on large-capacity magazines, was associated with fewer public mass shooting events, fatalities, and nonfatal gun injuries. Gun control legislation is an important public health tool in the prevention of public mass shootings.
| S-EPMC11429070 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCivilian public mass shootings (CPMSs) are a major public health issue and in recent years several events have occurred worldwide. The aim of this systematic review was to characterize injuries and mortality after CPMSs focusing on in-hospital management of hemorrhage and vascular injuries.MethodA systematic review of all published literature was undertaken in Medline, Embase and Web of Science January 1st, 1968, to February 22nd, 2021, according to the PRISMA guidelines. Literature was eligible for inclusion if the CPMS included three or more people shot, injured or killed, had vascular injuries or hemorrhage.ResultsThe search identified 2884 studies; 34 were eligible for inclusion in the analysis. There were 2039 wounded in 45 CPMS events. The dominating anatomic injury location per event was the extremity followed by abdomen and chest. The median number of operations and operated patients per event was 22 (5-101) and 10.5 (4-138), respectively. A total of 899 deaths were reported with a median mortality rate of 36.1% per event (15.9-71.4%) Thirty-eight percent (13/34) of all studies reported on vascular injuries. Vascular injuries ranged from 8 to 29%; extremity vascular injury the most frequent. Specific vascular injuries included thoracic aorta 18% (42/232), carotid arteries 6% (14/232), and abdominal aorta 5% (12/232). Vascular injuries were involved in 8.3%-10% of all deaths.ConclusionThis systematic review showed an overall high mortality after CPMS with injuries mainly located to the extremities, thorax and abdomen. About one quarter of deaths was related to hemorrhage involving central large vessel injuries. Further understanding of these injuries, and structured and uniform reporting of injuries and treatment protocols may help improve evaluation and management in the future. Level of Evidence Systematic review and meta-analysis, level III.
| S-EPMC10280979 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Gun violence prevention is often viewed as polarizing, although gun owners actually support many gun safety policies. The aim of this paper was to investigate the relationship between gun owners' perceptions of other gun owners' support for gun policies and their own individual support for such policies. NORC at the University of Chicago, which uses a panel of adults recruited through probability sampling, conducted an online/phone survey of 1,078 adult gun owners. Respondents were asked about their individual support for seven gun safety policies and their perceptions of other gun owners' support for those policies. We used two-sample t-tests and multivariate logistic regression analyses to explore the relationship between perceived and individual support. We found that gun owners underestimated fellow gun owners' support for gun violence prevention policy, especially if they personally opposed that policy. Gun owners' perception of fellow gun owners' support for a policy was significantly associated with the likelihood of individual support for that policy for all laws examined. These findings have important implications for correcting misperceptions of the level of gun owner support for gun safety policies as well as conducting and targeting educational campaigns to respond to and correct media misinformation.
| S-EPMC10387604 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundMost Americans believe that gun-free zones make locations more vulnerable to violent crimes, particularly active shootings. However, there is no empirical evidence regarding the impact of gun-free zones on protecting locations from violence. The objective of this study was to estimate the association between gun-free zones and active shootings.MethodsWe used a pair-matched case-control study where cases were all US establishments where active shootings occurred between 2014 and 2020, and controls were randomly selected US establishments where active shootings could have but did not occur, pair-matched by establishment type, year, and county. Gun-free status of included establishments was determined via local laws, company policy, news reporting, Google Maps and posted signage, and calling establishments.FindingsOf 150 active shooting cases, 72 (48.0%) were determined to have occurred in a gun-free zone. Of 150 controls where no active shooting occurred, 92 (61.3%) were determined to be gun-free. After accounting for matched pairs, the conditional odds of an active shooting in gun-free establishments were 0.38 times those in non-gun-free establishments, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.19-0.73 (p-value = 0.0038). Several robustness analyses affirmed these findings.InterpretationIt is unlikely that gun-free zones attract active shooters; gun-free zones may be protective against active shootings. This study challenges the proposition of repealing gun-free zones based on safety concerns.FundingThis work was funded in part by the National Collaborative on Gun Violence Research and the Arnold Foundation.
| S-EPMC11298848 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Past research finds that a majority of gun and non-gun owners support key gun safety policies, yet gun owners tend to underestimate other gun owners' support for these policies. We predicted that these misperceptions of support might lead gun owners to view non-gun owners as being less similar to themselves, which might undermine intergroup cooperation to promote gun safety policies and fuel intergroup animosity. Importantly, we also predicted that correcting these misperceptions would be an effective way to reduce intergroup division and enhance intergroup cooperation. We tested these predictions across two studies in which participants were randomly assigned to read information designed to correct misperceptions of gun owner support or to read other, control information. Across both studies, we find that correcting gun owners' misperceptions of gun owner support for gun safety policies leads to greater perceptions of identity overlap between gun and non-gun owners, greater willingness to work with each other to promote gun safety policies, and less negative affect towards each other. This suggests that correcting gun owner misperceptions of gun owners' support for gun safety policies might be an effective intervention to facilitate intergroup cooperation to promote these policies. Therefore, efforts to promote gun safety policies might benefit from educating gun owners about the degree of support for these policies that already exists among gun owners. Doing so might present a simple and cost-effective way to mobilize gun owners in support of these policies.
| S-EPMC9176832 | biostudies-literature