Dataset Information

State gun laws, gun ownership, and mass shootings in the US: cross sectional time series.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To determine whether restrictiveness-permissiveness of state gun laws or gun ownership are associated with mass shootings in the US. DESIGN:Cross sectional time series. SETTING AND POPULATION:US gun owners from 1998-2015. EXPOSURE:An annual rating between 0 (completely restrictive) and 100 (completely permissive) for the gun laws of all 50 states taken from a reference guide for gun owners traveling between states from 1998 to 2015. Gun ownership was estimated annually as the percentage of suicides committed with firearms in each state. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE:Mass shootings were defined as independent events in which four or more people were killed by a firearm. Data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reporting System from 1998-2015 were used to calculate annual rates of mass shootings in each state. Mass shooting events and rates were further separated into those where the victims were immediate family members or partners (domestic) and those where the victims had other relationships with the perpetrator (non-domestic). RESULTS:Fully adjusted regression analyses showed that a 10 unit increase in state gun law permissiveness was associated with a significant 11.5% (95% confidence interval 4.2% to 19.3%, P=0.002) higher rate of mass shootings. A 10% increase in state gun ownership was associated with a significant 35.1% (12.7% to 62.7%, P=0.001) higher rate of mass shootings. Partially adjusted regression analyses produced similar results, as did analyses restricted to domestic and non-domestic mass shootings. CONCLUSIONS:States with more permissive gun laws and greater gun ownership had higher rates of mass shootings, and a growing divide appears to be emerging between restrictive and permissive states.

SUBMITTER: Reeping PM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6402045 | biostudies-literature | 2019 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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State gun laws, gun ownership, and mass shootings in the US: cross sectional time series.

Reeping Paul M PM Cerdá Magdalena M Kalesan Bindu B Wiebe Douglas J DJ Galea Sandro S Branas Charles C CC

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20190306

<h4>Objective</h4>To determine whether restrictiveness-permissiveness of state gun laws or gun ownership are associated with mass shootings in the US.<h4>Design</h4>Cross sectional time series.<h4>Setting and population</h4>US gun owners from 1998-2015.<h4>Exposure</h4>An annual rating between 0 (completely restrictive) and 100 (completely permissive) for the gun laws of all 50 states taken from a reference guide for gun owners traveling between states from 1998 to 2015. Gun ownership was estima ...[more]

PMID: 30842105

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Project description:BackgroundGranular data on gun sales has been historically difficult to obtain. In 2016, California (CA) made monthly data from 1996 to 2015 publically available. Control charts are a method to analyze how a process changes over time in response to nonroutine events. We utilized this technique to study the impact of US mass shootings on CA gun sales.MethodsMonthly gun sales were provided by the CA Department of Justice and monthly fatalities from the CDC Wonder Death Certificate Registry. Mass shooting events were obtained from after-action reports, news media, and court proceedings. Time-ordered data were analyzed with control charts with 95% confidence intervals (upper control limit, lower control limit) using QiMacros.ResultsIndividual gun sales of 9,917,811 occurred in CA with a median monthly rate of 41,324 (range, 20,057-132,903). A median of 263 people lost their lives monthly from firearms (124 homicides, 128 suicides), totaling 53,975 fatalities from 1999 to 2015. Fifteen of 21 current deadliest mass shootings occurred during this study period with 40% from 2012 to 2015. Also, 36 school shootings occurred during the study (mean, 5 deaths; range, 0-33; 6 injuries; range, 0-23) with 31% in 2012 to 2015 at rate of 3 events/year versus 1.4 events/year in the 17 prior years (p < 0.05). Sales were generally consistent from 1996 to 2011 (except post-Columbine, Col). Starting in 2011, sales exceeded the 95% predicted upper control limit every single month. Before October 2011, there was no statistically significant sustained effect of mass shootings on sales (except Col); however, since a statistically significant proportional spike in sales occurred in the months immediately following every single deadliest mass shooting event. Every year since 2012, CA has strengthened gun laws in response to mass shootings yet sales have risen immediately preceding enactment of these laws each January.ConclusionGun sales are more frequent since 2012, with an additional increase following both mass shootings and legislative changes enacted in response to these shootings.Level of evidenceEpidemiology, level III.

Project description:Americans can be divided into two groups: those who own guns and those who do not. Although people who own guns and people who do not own guns are often separated along social, cultural, and political lines, it is unclear whether these divisions might extend to population differences in emotional experience. In this paper, we use national cross-sectional data from the 2014 Chapman University Survey on American Fears (n = 1385) to test whether gun owners are more or less afraid than people who do not own guns. We build on previous work by testing two hypotheses with a broad range of fear-related outcomes, including specific phobias and fears associated with being victimized. The symptom perspective argues that gun ownership is a behavioral expression of fear, that gun owners need guns to protect themselves because they are irrational cowards. Although binary logistic regression models provided minimal support for this idea, there was some evidence to suggest that the odds of gun ownership are higher for people who report being afraid of being victimized by a random/mass shooting. The palliative perspective claims that gun ownership mitigates fear, that owning a powerful weapon is somehow soothing to individuals and their families. Ordinary least squares and negative binomial regression models suggest that people who own guns tend to report lower levels of phobias and victimization fears than people who do not own guns. This general pattern is observed across multiple indicators of fear (e.g., of animals, heights, zombies, and muggings), multiple outcome specifications (continuous and count), and with adjustments for age, gender, race/ethnicity, education, household income, marital status, the presence of children, religious identity, religiosity, religious attendance, political orientation, region of residence, and urban residence. Additional longitudinal research is needed to confirm our findings with a wider range of covariates and fear-related outcomes.

Dataset Information

State gun laws, gun ownership, and mass shootings in the US: cross sectional time series.

Publications

State gun laws, gun ownership, and mass shootings in the US: cross sectional time series.

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