Project description:We consider the relationship between stationary distributions for stochastic models of reaction systems and Lyapunov functions for their deterministic counterparts. Specifically, we derive the well-known Lyapunov function of reaction network theory as a scaling limit of the non-equilibrium potential of the stationary distribution of stochastically modeled complex balanced systems. We extend this result to general birth-death models and demonstrate via example that similar scaling limits can yield Lyapunov functions even for models that are not complex or detailed balanced, and may even have multiple equilibria.
Project description:The last decade has seen the adverse outcome pathways (AOP) framework become one of the most powerful tools in chemical risk assessment, but the development of new AOPs remains a slow and manually intensive process. Here, we present a faster approach for AOP generation, based on manually curated causal toxicological networks. As a case study, we took a recently published zebrafish developmental neurotoxicity network, which contains causally connected molecular events leading to neuropathologies, and developed two new adverse outcome pathways: Inhibition of Fyna (Src family tyrosine kinase A) leading to increased mortality via decreased eye size (AOP 399 on AOP-Wiki) and GSK3beta (Glycogen synthase kinase 3 beta) inactivation leading to increased mortality via defects in developing inner ear (AOP 410). The approach consists of an automatic separation of the toxicological network into candidate AOPs, filtering the AOPs according to available evidence and length as well as manual development of new AOPs and weight-of-evidence evaluation. The semiautomatic approach described here provides a new opportunity for fast and straightforward AOP development based on large network resources.
Project description:We here used the technology of RNA interference and cDNA microarrays to reconstruct a network between genes known to be disregulated in ER-positive breast cancer diseases. Therefor single genes of high importance were silenced and the effect of this pertubation was measured with cDNA microarrays Keywords: network_reconstruction_RNAi human ER-positive breast cancer cell line was cultivated as described and transfection with chemically synthesized siRNAs was performed according to standard HiPerFect transfection protocol by Qiagen (Hilden, Germany) At least 4 cDNA-microarrays were hybridized in dye-swap method for the silencing of every gene of interest. To minimize off-target effects we used at least two different siRNAs per gene.
Project description:We present an identity for an unbiased estimate of a general statistical distribution. The identity computes the distribution density from dividing a histogram sum over a local window by a correction factor from a mean-force integral, and the mean force can be evaluated as a configuration average. We show that the optimal window size is roughly the inverse of the local mean-force fluctuation. The new identity offers a more robust and precise estimate than a previous one by Adib and Jarzynski [J. Chem. Phys. 122, 014114 (2005)]. It also allows a straightforward generalization to an arbitrary ensemble and a joint distribution of multiple variables. Particularly we derive a mean-force enhanced version of the weighted histogram analysis method. The method can be used to improve distributions computed from molecular simulations. We illustrate the use in computing a potential energy distribution, a volume distribution in a constant-pressure ensemble, a radial distribution function, and a joint distribution of amino acid backbone dihedral angles.
Project description:An adaptive treatment length strategy is a sequential stage-wise treatment strategy where a subject's treatment begins at baseline and one chooses to stop or continue treatment at each stage provided the subject has been continuously treated. The effects of treatment are assumed to be cumulative and, therefore, the effect of treatment length on clinical endpoint, measured at the end of the study, is of primary scientific interest. At the same time, adverse treatment-terminating events may occur during the course of treatment that require treatment be stopped immediately. Because the presence of a treatment-terminating event may be strongly associated with the study outcome, the treatment-terminating event is informative. In observational studies, decisions to stop or continue treatment depend on covariate history that confounds the relationship between treatment length on outcome. We propose a new risk-set weighted estimator of the mean potential outcome under the condition that time-dependent covariates update at a set of common landmarks. We show that our proposed estimator is asymptotically linear given mild assumptions and correctly specified working models. Specifically, we study the theoretical properties of our estimator when the nuisance parameters are modeled using either parametric or semiparametric methods. The finite sample performance and theoretical results of the proposed estimator are evaluated through simulation studies and demonstrated by application to the Enhanced Suppression of the Platelet Receptor IIb/IIIa with Integrilin Therapy (ESPRIT) infusion trial data.
Project description:We here used the technology of RNA interference and cDNA microarrays to reconstruct a network between genes known to be disregulated in ER-positive breast cancer diseases. Therefor single genes of high importance were silenced and the effect of this pertubation was measured with cDNA microarrays Keywords: network_reconstruction_RNAi
Project description:MOTIVATION: Understanding and predicting an individual's response in a clinical trial is the key to better treatments and cost-: effective medicine. Over the coming years, more and more large-scale omics datasets will become available to characterize patients with complex and heterogeneous diseases at a molecular level. Unfortunately, genetic, phenotypical and environmental variation is much higher in a human trial population than currently modeled or measured in most animal studies. In our experience, this high variability can lead to failure of trained predictors in independent studies and undermines the credibility and utility of promising high-dimensional datasets. METHODS: We propose a method that utilizes patient-level genome-wide expression data in conjunction with causal networks based on prior knowledge. Our approach determines a differential expression profile for each patient and uses a Bayesian approach to infer corresponding upstream regulators. These regulators and their corresponding posterior probabilities of activity are used in a regularized regression framework to predict response. RESULTS: We validated our approach using two clinically relevant phenotypes, namely acute rejection in kidney transplantation and response to Infliximab in ulcerative colitis. To demonstrate pitfalls in translating trained predictors across independent trials, we analyze performance characteristics of our approach as well as alternative feature sets in the regression on two independent datasets for each phenotype. We show that the proposed approach is able to successfully incorporate causal prior knowledge to give robust performance estimates.
Project description:One consistent finding in the causal reasoning literature is that causal judgments are rather variable. In particular, distributions of probabilistic causal judgments tend not to be normal and are often not centered on the normative response. As an explanation for these response distributions, we propose that people engage in 'mutation sampling' when confronted with a causal query and integrate this information with prior information about that query. The Mutation Sampler model (Davis & Rehder, 2020) posits that we approximate probabilities using a sampling process, explaining the average responses of participants on a wide variety of tasks. Careful analysis, however, shows that its predicted response distributions do not match empirical distributions. We develop the Bayesian Mutation Sampler (BMS) which extends the original model by incorporating the use of generic prior distributions. We fit the BMS to experimental data and find that, in addition to average responses, the BMS explains multiple distributional phenomena including the moderate conservatism of the bulk of responses, the lack of extreme responses, and spikes of responses at 50%.
Project description:Summary Causal Bayesian Networks are a special class of Bayesian networks in which the hierarchy directly encodes the causal relationships between the variables. This allows to compute the effect of interventions, which are external changes to the system, caused by e.g. gene knockouts or an administered drug. Whereas numerous packages for constructing causal Bayesian networks are available, hardly any program targeted at downstream analysis exists. In this paper we present CausalTrail, a tool for performing reasoning on causal Bayesian networks using the do-calculus. CausalTrail's features include multiple data import methods, a flexible query language for formulating hypotheses, as well as an intuitive graphical user interface. The program is able to account for missing data and thus can be readily applied in multi-omics settings where it is common that not all measurements are performed for all samples. Availability and Implementation CausalTrail is implemented in C++ using the Boost and Qt5 libraries. It can be obtained from https://github.com/dstoeckel/causaltrail.
Project description:Estimating an epidemic's trajectory is crucial for developing public health responses to infectious diseases, but incidence data used for such estimation are confounded by variable testing practices. We show instead that the population distribution of viral loads observed under random or symptom-based surveillance, in the form of cycle threshold (Ct) values, changes during an epidemic and that Ct values from even limited numbers of random samples can provide improved estimates of an epidemic's trajectory. Combining multiple such samples and the fraction positive improves the precision and robustness of such estimation. We apply our methods to Ct values from surveillance conducted during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in a variety of settings and demonstrate new approaches for real-time estimates of epidemic trajectories for outbreak management and response.