Dataset Information

Measuring the impact of COVID-19 on cancer survival using an interrupted time series analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Few studies have investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer survival. Those studies that have included pandemic vs prepandemic comparisons can mask differences during different periods of the pandemic such as COVID-19 waves. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer survival using an interrupted time series analysis and to identify time points during the pandemic when observed survival deviated from expected survival.

Methods

A retrospective population-based cohort study that included individuals diagnosed with cancer between January 2015 and September 2021 from Manitoba, Canada, was performed. Interrupted time series analyses with Royston-Parmar models as well as Kaplan-Meier survival estimates and delta restricted mean survival times at 1 year were used to compare survival rates for those diagnosed before and after the pandemic. Analyses were performed for 11 cancer types.

Results

Survival at 1 year for most cancer types was not statistically different during the pandemic compared with prepandemic except for individuals aged 50-74 years who were diagnosed with lung cancer from April to June 2021 (delta restricted mean survival times = -31.6 days, 95% confidence interval [CI] = -58.3 to -7.2 days).

Conclusions

With the exception of individuals diagnosed with lung cancer, the COVID-19 pandemic did not impact overall 1-year survival in Manitoba. Additional research is needed to examine the impact of the pandemic on long-term cancer survival.

SUBMITTER: Lambert P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC10868396 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Measuring the impact of COVID-19 on cancer survival using an interrupted time series analysis.

Lambert Pascal P Galloway Katie K Feely Allison A Bucher Oliver O Czaykowski Piotr P Hebbard Pamela P Kim Julian O JO Pitz Marshall M Singh Harminder H Thiessen Maclean M Decker Kathleen M KM

JNCI cancer spectrum 20240101 1

<h4>Background</h4>Few studies have investigated the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer survival. Those studies that have included pandemic vs prepandemic comparisons can mask differences during different periods of the pandemic such as COVID-19 waves. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on cancer survival using an interrupted time series analysis and to identify time points during the pandemic when observed survival deviated from expected su ...[more]

PMID: 38177077

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Project description:Background In March 2020, the government of Uganda implemented a strict lockdown policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We performed an interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to assess whether major changes in healthcare seeking behavior, malaria burden, and case management occurred after the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic. Methods Individual level data from all outpatient visits occurring from April 2017 through March 2021 at 17 facilities were analyzed. Outcomes included total outpatient visits, malaria cases, non-malarial visits, proportion of visits with suspected malaria, proportion of patients tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and proportion of malaria cases prescribed artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Pre-COVID trends measured over a three-year period were extrapolated into the post-COVID period (April 2020- March 2021) using Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations or fractional regression. Effects of COVID-19 were estimated over the 12-month post-COVID period by dividing observed values by the predicted values and expressed as ratios. Results A total of 1,442,737 outpatient visits were recorded. Malaria was suspected in 55.3% of visits and 98.8% of these had a malaria diagnostic test performed. ITSA showed no differences in the observed versus predicted total outpatient visits, malaria cases, non-malarial visits, or proportion of visits with suspected malaria. However, in the second six months of the post-COVID period, there was a smaller mean proportion of patients tested with RDTs compared to predicted (Relative Prevalence Ratio (RPR) = 0.87, CI [0.78, 0.97]) and a smaller mean proportion of malaria cases prescribed AL (RPR = 0.94, CI [0.90, 0.99]. Conclusions There was evidence for a modest decrease in the proportion of RDTs used for malaria diagnosis and the proportion of patients prescribed AL in the second half of the post-COVID year, while other malaria indicators remained stable. Continued surveillance will be essential to monitor for changes in trends in malaria indicators so that Uganda can quickly and flexibly respond to challenges imposed by COVID-19.

Project description:BackgroundIn March 2020, the government of Uganda implemented a strict lockdown policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was performed to assess whether major changes in outpatient attendance, malaria burden, and case management occurred after the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in rural Uganda.MethodsIndividual level data from all outpatient visits collected from April 2017 to March 2021 at 17 facilities were analysed. Outcomes included total outpatient visits, malaria cases, non-malarial visits, proportion of patients with suspected malaria, proportion of patients tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and proportion of malaria cases prescribed artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations and fractional regression was used to model count and proportion outcomes, respectively. Pre-COVID trends (April 2017-March 2020) were used to predict the'expected' trend in the absence of COVID-19 introduction. Effects of COVID-19 were estimated over two six-month COVID-19 time periods (April 2020-September 2020 and October 2020-March 2021) by dividing observed values by expected values, and expressed as ratios.ResultsA total of 1,442,737 outpatient visits were recorded. Malaria was suspected in 55.3% of visits and 98.8% of these had a malaria diagnostic test performed. ITSA showed no differences between observed and expected total outpatient visits, malaria cases, non-malarial visits, or proportion of visits with suspected malaria after COVID-19 onset. However, in the second six months of the COVID-19 time period, there was a smaller mean proportion of patients tested with RDTs compared to expected (relative prevalence ratio (RPR) = 0.87, CI (0.78-0.97)) and a smaller mean proportion of malaria cases prescribed AL (RPR = 0.94, CI (0.90-0.99)).ConclusionsIn the first year after the COVID-19 pandemic arrived in Uganda, there were no major effects on malaria disease burden and indicators of case management at these 17 rural health facilities, except for a modest decrease in the proportion of RDTs used for malaria diagnosis and the mean proportion of malaria cases prescribed AL in the second half of the COVID-19 pandemic year. Continued surveillance will be essential to monitor for changes in trends in malaria indicators so that Uganda can quickly and flexibly respond to challenges imposed by COVID-19.

Project description:Background From 2010 to 2019, suicide mortality fell steadily and substantially in Hungary: the declining trend remained stable, and the suicide rate decreased by more than one-third which was remarkable even from an international perspective. However, despite the declining trend, regional inequalities have always characterised the distribution of suicide mortality in Hungary. Following these favourable trends, COVID-19 appeared in Hungary on the 4th of March 2020 which might lead to an increase in suicides. We aimed to investigate this hypothesis in Hungary by gender, age, educational attainment, and region, as well. Methods To test whether the pandemic changed the declining trend of Hungarian suicide rates, the observed number of suicides during March–December 2020 (pre-vaccination period) was compared with the expected numbers (without the appearance of COVID-19). An interrupted time-series analysis was conducted by negative binomial regression using monthly data from January 2010 to February 2020 (pre-pandemic period). Results Suicide mortality increased significantly compared to the trend during the pre-pandemic period: overall (by 16.7%), among males (18.5%), in the age group 35–49 years (32.8%), and among vocational school graduates (26.1%). Additionally, significant growths in suicide rates were detected in the two regions (Central Hungary and Central Transdanubia) with the lowest COVID mortality rates (by 27.3% and 22.2%, respectively). Conclusions Our study revealed reversed trend in suicide mortality during the pre-vaccination period compared to the pre-pandemic period in Hungary. There were significant differences in the pattern of suicide rates by gender, age group, educational attainment, and region during the pre-vaccination period in Hungary, which might be attributed to the socio-economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. These findings could prove useful in preventive strategies as the identification of groups at higher risk may be important for suicide prevention; however, further investigations are needed to explore the reasons. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12888-022-04322-2.

Project description:IntroductionThe Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) burden, coupled with unprecedented control measures including physical distancing, travel bans, and lockdowns of cities, implemented to stop the spread of the virus, have undoubtedly far-reaching aftereffects on other diseases. In low and middle-income countries (LMICs), a particular worry is the potential impact on Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and Tuberculosis (TB), as a consequence of possible disruption to health services and limiting access to needed life-saving health care. In Ghana, there is a paucity of information regarding the impact of COVID-19 on disease control, particularly TB and HIV control. This study sought to contribute to bridging this knowledge gap.MethodThe study involved the analysis of secondary data obtained from the District Health Information Management System-2 (DHIMS-2) database of Ghana Health Service, from 2016 to 2020. Data were analysed using an interrupted time-series regression approach to estimate the impact of COVID-19 on TB case notification, HIV testing, and Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) initiations, using March 2020 as the event period.ResultsThe study showed that during the COVID-19 pandemic period, there was an abrupt decline of 20.5% (955CI: 16.0%, 24.5%) in TB case notifications in April and 32.7% (95%CI: 28.8%, 39.1%) in May 2020, with a median monthly decline of 21.4% from April-December 2020. A cumulative loss of 2,128 (20%; 95%CI: 13.3%, 26.7%) TB cases was observed nationwide as of December 2020. There was also a 40.3% decrease in people presenting for HIV tests in the first month of COVID-19 (April 2020) and a cumulative loss of 262620 (26.5%) HIV tests as of December 2020 attributable to the COVID-19 pandemic. ART initiations increased by 39.2% in the first month and thereafter decreased by an average of 10% per month from May to September 2020. Cumulatively, 443 (1.9%) more of the people living with HIV initiated ART during the pandemic period, however, this was not statistically significant.ConclusionThis study demonstrated that the COVID-19 pandemic negatively impacted TB case notifications and HIV testing and counselling services, However, ART initiation was generally not impacted during the first year of the pandemic. Proactive approaches aimed at actively finding the thousands of individuals with TB who were missed in 2020 and increasing HIV testing and counselling and subsequent treatment initiations should be prioritised.

Dataset Information

Measuring the impact of COVID-19 on cancer survival using an interrupted time series analysis.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Measuring the impact of COVID-19 on cancer survival using an interrupted time series analysis.

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