Dataset Information

Impact of COVID-19 on routine malaria indicators in rural Uganda: an interrupted time series analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In March 2020, the government of Uganda implemented a strict lockdown policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) was performed to assess whether major changes in outpatient attendance, malaria burden, and case management occurred after the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in rural Uganda.

Methods

Individual level data from all outpatient visits collected from April 2017 to March 2021 at 17 facilities were analysed. Outcomes included total outpatient visits, malaria cases, non-malarial visits, proportion of patients with suspected malaria, proportion of patients tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and proportion of malaria cases prescribed artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations and fractional regression was used to model count and proportion outcomes, respectively. Pre-COVID trends (April 2017-March 2020) were used to predict the'expected' trend in the absence of COVID-19 introduction. Effects of COVID-19 were estimated over two six-month COVID-19 time periods (April 2020-September 2020 and October 2020-March 2021) by dividing observed values by expected values, and expressed as ratios.

Results

A total of 1,442,737 outpatient visits were recorded. Malaria was suspected in 55.3% of visits and 98.8% of these had a malaria diagnostic test performed. ITSA showed no differences between observed and expected total outpatient visits, malaria cases, non-malarial visits, or proportion of visits with suspected malaria after COVID-19 onset. However, in the second six months of the COVID-19 time period, there was a smaller mean proportion of patients tested with RDTs compared to expected (relative prevalence ratio (RPR) = 0.87, CI (0.78-0.97)) and a smaller mean proportion of malaria cases prescribed AL (RPR = 0.94, CI (0.90-0.99)).

Conclusions

In the first year after the COVID-19 pandemic arrived in Uganda, there were no major effects on malaria disease burden and indicators of case management at these 17 rural health facilities, except for a modest decrease in the proportion of RDTs used for malaria diagnosis and the mean proportion of malaria cases prescribed AL in the second half of the COVID-19 pandemic year. Continued surveillance will be essential to monitor for changes in trends in malaria indicators so that Uganda can quickly and flexibly respond to challenges imposed by COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Namuganga JF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8685800 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Similar Datasets

Project description:Background In March 2020, the government of Uganda implemented a strict lockdown policy in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. We performed an interrupted time series analysis (ITSA) to assess whether major changes in healthcare seeking behavior, malaria burden, and case management occurred after the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic. Methods Individual level data from all outpatient visits occurring from April 2017 through March 2021 at 17 facilities were analyzed. Outcomes included total outpatient visits, malaria cases, non-malarial visits, proportion of visits with suspected malaria, proportion of patients tested using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs), and proportion of malaria cases prescribed artemether-lumefantrine (AL). Pre-COVID trends measured over a three-year period were extrapolated into the post-COVID period (April 2020- March 2021) using Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations or fractional regression. Effects of COVID-19 were estimated over the 12-month post-COVID period by dividing observed values by the predicted values and expressed as ratios. Results A total of 1,442,737 outpatient visits were recorded. Malaria was suspected in 55.3% of visits and 98.8% of these had a malaria diagnostic test performed. ITSA showed no differences in the observed versus predicted total outpatient visits, malaria cases, non-malarial visits, or proportion of visits with suspected malaria. However, in the second six months of the post-COVID period, there was a smaller mean proportion of patients tested with RDTs compared to predicted (Relative Prevalence Ratio (RPR) = 0.87, CI [0.78, 0.97]) and a smaller mean proportion of malaria cases prescribed AL (RPR = 0.94, CI [0.90, 0.99]. Conclusions There was evidence for a modest decrease in the proportion of RDTs used for malaria diagnosis and the proportion of patients prescribed AL in the second half of the post-COVID year, while other malaria indicators remained stable. Continued surveillance will be essential to monitor for changes in trends in malaria indicators so that Uganda can quickly and flexibly respond to challenges imposed by COVID-19.

Project description:ObjectivesThe establishment of the Family Physician (FP) programme in the rural areas of Iran in 2005 has made health services accessible and affordable. This paper aims to assess the overall trends of maternal and child health (MCH) indicators in a 20-year period and possible effects of the FP programme (intervention) on these indicators in Iran.Design and settingAn interrupted time series analysis was conducted on 20 annual MCH-related data points from 1994 to 2013. The intervention time was at the 12th data point in 2005.OutcomesMCH indicators were grouped into three categories: structure (mother's age, education, occupation and gravidity), process (number of antenatal care visits (ACVs), laboratory tests, ultrasounds and natural vaginal deliveries (NVDs)) and outcomes (maternal mortality ratio (MMR), neonatal mortality rate (NMR), birth weight (BW), history of abortion and/or stillbirth, and haemoglobin level (Hb)).ResultsThe adjusted slope of the ACV trend decreased sharply after the intervention (b=-0.36, p<0.01), whereas it increased for the frequency of ultrasounds (b=0.2, p<0.01) and did not change for number of laboratory tests (b=-0.09, p=0.95). The intensification of the descending slope observed for NVD (b=-1.91, p=0.03) disappeared after the adjustment for structural confounders (b=1.33, p=0.26). There was no significant slope change for MMR (b=1.12, p=0.28) and NMR (b=0.67, p=0.07) after the intervention. The slope for the history of abortion trend was constant before and after the intervention, but it considerably intensified for the history of stillbirths after the intervention (b=1.72, p<0.01). The decreasing trend of BW turned into a constant mode after the intervention (b=33.2, p<0.01), but no change was observed for Hb (b=-0.02, p=0.78).ConclusionAlthough the FP programme had a positive effect on the process and proximal outcome indicators (BW), no dramatic effect on mortality outcome indicators was distinguished. It shows that there should be determinants or mediators of mortality outcomes in this setting, other than accessibility and affordability of MCH services.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria endemic countries have scaled-up community health worker (CHW) interventions, to diagnose and treat malaria in communities with limited access to public health systems. The evaluations of these programmes have centred on CHW's compliance to guidelines, but the broader changes at public health centres including utilisation and diagnoses made, has received limited attention.MethodsThis analysis was conducted during a CHW-intervention for malaria in Rukungiri District, Western Uganda. Outpatient department (OPD) visit data were collected for children under-5 attending three health centres one year before the CHW-intervention started (pre-intervention period) and for 20 months during the intervention (intervention-period). An interrupted time series analysis with segmented regression models was used to compare the trends in malaria, non-malaria and overall OPD visits during the pre-intervention and intervention-period.ResultsThe introduction of a CHW-intervention suggested the frequency of diagnoses of diarrhoeal diseases, pneumonia and helminths increased, whilst the frequency of malaria diagnoses declined at health centres. In May 2010 when the intervention began, overall health centre utilisation decreased by 63% compared to the pre-intervention period and the health centres saw 32 fewer overall visits per month compared to the pre-intervention period (p<0.001). Malaria visits also declined shortly after the intervention began and there were 27 fewer visits per month during the intervention-period compared with the pre-intervention period (p<0.05). The declines in overall and malaria visits were sustained for the entire intervention-period. In contrast, there were no observable changes in trends of non-malarial visits between the pre-intervention and intervention-period.ConclusionsThis analysis suggests introducing a CHW-intervention can reduce the number of child malaria visits and change the profile of cases presenting at health centres. The reduction in workload of health workers may allow them to spend more time with patients or undertake additional curative or preventative roles.