Prognostic risk models for incident hypertension: A PRISMA systematic review and meta-analysis
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Schjerven F
PROVIDER: S-EPMC10927109 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Several studies reported an association between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and the risk of incident hypertension. The objective of this systematic review and meta-analysis was to obtain a precise and reliable estimate of the nature and magnitude of this association. We systematically searched Ovid-MEDLINE up to March 2021 for observational studies in which NAFLD was diagnosed in adults using blood-based panels, imaging techniques or liver biopsy and with a follow-up ≥1 year. Measures of association from individual studies were meta-analyzed using random-effects models. Of the 1108 titles initially scrutinized, we included 11 cohort studies with data on 390 348 participants (52% male) and a mean follow-up of 5.7 years. In the overall analysis, NAFLD was associated with a moderately increased risk of incident hypertension (hazard ratio 1.66; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.38-2.01; test for overall effect z = 5.266; P < 0.001). There was significant heterogeneity among the studies (P < 0.001). Sensitivity analyses showed that estimates were not affected by geographical location, duration of follow-up and adjustment for baseline blood pressure values. On the other hand, the magnitude of the association was lower in studies that adjusted for baseline adiposity compared with those that did not, explaining part of the observed heterogeneity. No significant publication bias was detected by funnel plot analysis and Egger's and Begg's tests. This large meta-analysis indicates that NAFLD is associated with a ~1.6-fold increased risk of developing hypertension. Further studies are needed to investigate the role of NAFLD severity in terms of inflammation and fibrosis on incident hypertension.
| S-EPMC8876398 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundObservational studies of the relationship between hyperuricemia and the incidence of hypertension are controversial. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the association and consistency between uric acid levels and the risk of hypertension development.MethodsWe searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, CBM (Chinese Biomedicine Database) through September 2013 and reference lists of retrieved studies to identify cohort studies and nested case-control studies with uric acid levels as exposure and incident hypertension as outcome variables. Two reviewers independently extracted data and assessed study quality using Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Extracted information included study design, population, definition of hyperuricemia and hypertension, number of incident hypertension, effect sizes, and adjusted confounders. Pooled relative risks (RRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between hyperuricemia and risk of hypertension were calculated using a random-effects model.ResultsWe included 25 studies with 97,824 participants assessing the association between uric acid and incident hypertension in our meta-analysis. The quality of included studies is moderate to high. Random-effects meta-analysis showed that hyperuricemia was associated with a higher risk of incident hypertension, regardless of whether the effect size was adjusted or not, whether the data were categorical or continuous as 1 SD/1 mg/dl increase in uric acid level (unadjusted: RR = 1.73, 95% CI 1.46∼2.06 for categorical data, RR = 1.22, 95% CI 1.03∼1.45 for a 1 SD increase; adjusted: RR = 1.48, 95% CI 1.33∼1.65 for categorical data, RR = 1.15, 95% CI 1.06∼1.26 for a 1 mg/dl increase), and the risk is consistent in subgroup analyses and have a dose-response relationship.ConclusionsHyperuricemia may modestly increase the risk of hypertension incidence, consistent with a dose-response relationship.
| S-EPMC4250178 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHypertension is a leading global health threat and a major cardiovascular disease. Since clinical interventions are effective in delaying the disease progression from prehypertension to hypertension, diagnostic prediction models to identify patient populations at high risk for hypertension are imperative.MethodsBoth PubMed and Embase databases were searched for eligible reports of either prediction models or risk scores of hypertension. The study data were collected, including risk factors, statistic methods, characteristics of study design and participants, performance measurement, etc.ResultsFrom the searched literature, 26 studies reporting 48 prediction models were selected. Among them, 20 reports studied the established models using traditional risk factors, such as body mass index (BMI), age, smoking, blood pressure (BP) level, parental history of hypertension, and biochemical factors, whereas 6 reports used genetic risk score (GRS) as the prediction factor. AUC ranged from 0.64 to 0.97, and C-statistic ranged from 60% to 90%.ConclusionsThe traditional models are still the predominant risk prediction models for hypertension, but recently, more models have begun to incorporate genetic factors as part of their model predictors. However, these genetic predictors need to be well selected. The current reported models have acceptable to good discrimination and calibration ability, but whether the models can be applied in clinical practice still needs more validation and adjustment.
| S-EPMC5662179 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND: Early treatment may alter progression to overt heart failure (HF) in asymptomatic individuals with stage B HF (SBHF). However, the identification of patients with SBHF is difficult. This systematic review sought to examine the strength of association of clinical factors with incident HF, with the intention of facilitating selection for HF screening. METHODS: Electronic databases were systematically searched for studies reporting risk factors for incident HF. Effect sizes, typically HRs, of each risk variable were extracted. Pooled crude and adjusted HRs with 95% CIs were computed for each risk variable using a random-effects model weighted by inverse variance. RESULTS: Twenty-seven clinical factors were identified to be associated with risk of incident HF in 15 observational studies in unselected community populations which followed 456 850 participants over 4-29 years. The strongest independent associations for incident HF were coronary artery disease (HR=2.94; 95% CI 1.36 to 6.33), diabetes mellitus (HR=2.00; 95% CI 1.68 to 2.38), age (HR (per 10 years)=1.80; 95% CI 1.13 to 2.87) followed by hypertension (HR=1.61; 95% CI 1.33 to 1.96), smoking (HR=1.60; 95% CI 1.45 to 1.77), male gender (HR=1.52; 95% CI 1.24 to 1.87) and body mass index (HR (per 5 kg/m(2))=1.15; 95% CI 1.06 to 1.25). Atrial fibrillation (HR=1.88; 95% CI 1.60 to 2.21), left ventricular hypertrophy (HR=2.46; 95% CI 1.71 to 3.53) and valvular heart disease (HR=1.74; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.84) were also strongly associated with incident HF but were not examined in sufficient papers to provide pooled hazard estimates. CONCLUSIONS: Prediction of incident HF can be calculated from seven common clinical variables. The risk associated with these may guide strategies for the identification of high-risk people who may benefit from further evaluation and intervention.
| S-EPMC4395833 | biostudies-other
Project description:To review the evidence for existing prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and determine how valid and useful they are for predicting patient outcomes.Systematic review and meta-analysis.OVID MEDLINE and EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library from inception to July 2014, and sources of grey literature.Studies aiming at constructing, validating, updating or studying the impact of prognostic models to predict all-cause death, PE-related death or venous thromboembolic events up to a 3-month follow-up in patients with an acute symptomatic PE.Study characteristics and study quality using prognostic criteria. Studies were selected and data extracted by 2 reviewers.Summary estimates (95% CI) for proportion of risk groups and event rates within risk groups, and accuracy.We included 71 studies (44,298 patients). Among them, 17 were model construction studies specific to PE prognosis. The most validated models were the PE Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.3% (1.7% to 2.9%) in the low-risk group and 11.4% (9.9% to 13.1%) in the high-risk group for PESI (9 studies), and 1.5% (0.9% to 2.5%) in the low-risk group and 10.7% (8.8% to12.9%) in the high-risk group for sPESI (11 studies). PESI has proved clinically useful in an impact study. Shifting the cut-off or using novel and updated models specifically developed for normotensive PE improves the ability for identifying patients at lower risk for early death or adverse outcome (0.5-1%) and those at higher risk (up to 20-29% of event rate).We provide evidence-based information about the validity and utility of the existing prognostic models in acute PE that may be helpful for identifying patients at low risk. Novel models seem attractive for the high-risk normotensive PE but need to be externally validated then be assessed in impact studies.
| S-EPMC4854007 | biostudies-other
Project description:Importance:Fear of dementia is pervasive in older people with cognitive concerns. Much research is devoted to finding prognostic markers for dementia risk. Studies suggest apathy in older people may be prodromal to dementia and could be a relevant, easily measurable predictor of increased dementia risk. However, evidence is fragmented and methods vary greatly between studies. Objective:To systematically review and quantitatively synthesize the evidence for an association between apathy in dementia-free older individuals and incident dementia. Data Sources:Two reviewers conducted a systematic search of Medline, Embase, and PsychINFO databases. Study Selection:Inclusion criteria were (1) prospective cohort studies, (2) in general populations or memory clinic patients without dementia, (3) with clear definitions of apathy and dementia, and (4) reporting on the association between apathy and incident dementia. Data Extraction and Synthesis:PRISMA and MOOSE guidelines were followed. Data were extracted by 1 reviewer and checked by a second. Main Outcomes and Measures:Main outcomes were pooled crude risk ratios, maximally adjusted reported hazard ratios (HR), and odds ratios (OR) using DerSimonian-Laird random effects models. Results:The mean age of the study populations ranged from 69.2 to 81.9 years (median, 71.6 years) and the percentage of women ranged from 35% to 70% (median, 53%). After screening 2031 titles and abstracts, 16 studies comprising 7365 participants were included. Apathy status was available for 7299 participants. Studies included populations with subjective cognitive concerns (n = 2), mild cognitive impairment (n = 11), cognitive impairment no dementia (n = 1), or mixed cognitive and no cognitive impairment (n = 2). Apathy was present in 1470 of 7299 participants (20.1%). Follow-up ranged from 1.2 to 5.4 years. In studies using validated apathy definitions (n = 12), the combined risk ratio of dementia for patients with apathy was 1.81 (95% CI, 1.32-2.50; I2 = 76%; n = 12), the hazard ratio was 2.39 (95% CI, 1.27-4.51; I2 = 90%; n = 7), and the odds ratio was 17.14 (95% CI, 1.91-154.0; I2 = 60%; n = 2). Subgroup analyses, meta-regression, and individual study results suggested the association between apathy and dementia weakened with increasing follow-up time, age, and cognitive impairment. Meta-regression adjusting for apathy definition and follow-up time explained 95% of heterogeneity in mild cognitive impairment. Conclusions and Relevance:Apathy was associated with an approximately 2-fold increased risk of dementia in memory clinic patients. Moderate publication bias may have inflated some of these estimates. Apathy deserves more attention as a relevant, cheap, noninvasive, and easily measureable marker of increased risk of incident dementia with high clinical relevance, particularly because these vulnerable patients may forgo health care.
| S-EPMC6233800 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundPrognostic tools for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients are potentially useful for ascertaining prognosis and recommended in guidelines to facilitate streamline assessment and communication between providers. In this systematic review with meta-analysis we identified and characterized all existing prognostic tools for this population, performed a methodological evaluation of the conducting and reporting of such studies and compared different methods of prognostic tool derivation in terms of discrimination for mortality and functional outcome prediction.MethodsPubMed, ISI, Scopus and CENTRAL were searched up to 15th September 2016, with additional studies identified using reference check. Two reviewers independently extracted data regarding the population studied, process of tool derivation, included predictors and discrimination (c statistic) using a predesignated spreadsheet based in the CHARMS checklist. Disagreements were solved by consensus. C statistics were pooled using robust variance estimation and meta-regression was applied for group comparisons using random effect models.ResultsFifty nine studies were retrieved, including 48,133 patients and reporting on the derivation of 72 prognostic tools. Data on discrimination (c statistic) was available for 53 tools, 38 focusing on mortality and 15 focusing on functional outcome. Discrimination was high for both outcomes, with a pooled c statistic of 0.88 for mortality and 0.87 for functional outcome. Forty three tools were regression based and nine tools were derived using machine learning algorithms, with no differences found between the two methods in terms of discrimination (p = 0.490). Several methodological issues however were identified, relating to handling of missing data, low number of events per variable, insufficient length of follow-up, absence of blinding, infrequent use of internal validation, and underreporting of important model performance measures.ConclusionsPrognostic tools for ICH discriminated well for mortality and functional outcome in derivation studies but methodological issues require confirmation of these findings in validation studies. Logistic regression based risk scores are particularly promising given their good performance and ease of application.
| S-EPMC6247734 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundsPrevious investigations yielded inconsistent results for the associations between pancreatic cancer (PC) risk and genetic polymorphisms. The study aimed to perform a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies exploring association of some genetic polymorphisms and PC risk.MethodsWe systematically searched on PubMed and Web of Science for association of genetic polymorphisms and PC risk published from 1969 to January 2019. We computed the multivariate odd ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), comparing different genetic types.ResultsThe present meta-analysis showed significant associations between deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) repair gene (X-ray repair cross-complementing group 1 (XRCC1) Arg399GIn and Arg194Trp, excision repair cross complementation 1 (ERCC1) rs11615 and rs3212986, ERCC2 rs13181) polymorphisms and PC risk.ConclusionsBecause of the limited sample size and ethnicity enrolled in the present meta-analysis, further larger scaled studies should be performed to demonstrate the association.
| S-EPMC6708677 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundRegulator of cullins 1 (ROC1) is frequently overexpressed in multiple tumors, and many pieces of research demonstrate that ROC1 is associated with the prognosis and development of a diversity of neoplasms and it is able to serve as a promising prognostic biomarker. Here we performed this meta-analysis to evaluate the prognostic and clinicopathological significance of ROC1 in patients suffering from cancer.MethodsWe searched Pubmed, Embase, Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI), and WanFang database. The role of ROC1 in cancers was evaluated by pooled hazard ratios (HRs), odd ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).ResultsIn total, 9 studies including 1002 patients were enrolled in this analysis. The pooled results showed that patients with high expression of ROC1 had poor overall survival (OS) (HR: 2.04, 95% CI: 1.48-2.60, P < 0.001) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) (HR: 1.727, 95% CI: 0.965-2.488, P < 0.001). Additionally, elevated expression of ROC1 was significantly correlated with advanced clinical Tumor Node Metastasis stage (OR: 2.708, 95% CI: 1.856-3.951, P < 0.001), positive lymph node metastasis (OR: 1.968; 95% CI: 1.294-2.993, P = .002), large tumor size (OR: 1.522, 95% CI: 1.079-2.149, P = .017) and poor tumor differentiation (OR: 2.448, 95% CI: 1.793-3.344, P < 0.001).ConclusionsElevated ROC1 expression predicted worse prognosis and advanced pathological parameters in various cancers. ROC1 was a significant prognostic biomarker for poor survival in human cancers.
| S-EPMC9239593 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Primary outcome(s): The primary endpoint was long-term survival including overall survival (OS) and recurrence/relapse-free survival (RFS).
| 2654299 | ecrin-mdr-crc