Dataset Information

The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.

Methods

Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.

Findings

Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).

Interpretation

This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.

Funding

This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).

SUBMITTER: Goh RSJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC11296249 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.

Goh Rachel Sze Jen RSJ Chong Bryan B Jayabaskaran Jayanth J Jauhari Silingga Metta SM Chan Siew Pang SP Kueh Martin Tze Wah MTW Shankar Kannan K Li Henry H Chin Yip Han YH Kong Gwyneth G Anand Vickram Vijay VV Chan Keith Andrew KA Sukmawati Indah I Toh Sue Anne SA Muthiah Mark M Wang Jiong-Wei JW Tse Gary G Mehta Anurag A Fong Alan A Baskaran Lohendran L Zhong Liang L Yap Jonathan J Yeo Khung Keong KK Hausenloy Derek J DJ Tan Jack Wei Chieh JWC Chao Tze-Fan TF Li Yi-Heng YH Lim Shir Lynn SL Chan Koo Hui KH Loh Poay Huan PH Chai Ping P Yeo Tiong Cheng TC Low Adrian F AF Lee Chi Hang CH Foo Roger R Tan Huay Cheem HC Yip James J Rao Sarita S Honda Satoshi S Yasuda Satoshi S Kajiya Takashi T Goto Shinya S Yan Bryan P BP Zhou Xin X Figtree Gemma A GA Mamas Mamas A MA Kim Yongcheol Y Jeong Young-Hoon YH Kim Moo Hyun MH Park Duk-Woo DW Park Seung-Jung SJ Richards A Mark AM Chan Mark Y MY Lip Gregory Y H GYH Chew Nicholas W S NWS

The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific 20240710

<h4>Background</h4>Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.<h4>Findings</h4>Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortalit ...[more]

PMID: 39100533

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Dataset Information

The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.

Background

Methods

Findings

Interpretation

Funding

Publications

The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.

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