Modelling bluetongue and African horse sickness vector (Culicoides spp.) distribution in the Western Cape in South Africa using random forest machine learning
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SUBMITTER: de Klerk J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11340078 | biostudies-literature | 2024 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:We modelled the ecoclimatic niche of Culicoides imicola, a major arthropod vector of midge-borne viral pathogens affecting ruminants and equids, at fine scale and on a global extent, so as to provide insight into current and future risks of disease epizootics, and increase current knowledge of the species' ecology. Based on the known distribution and ecology of C. imicola, the species' response to monthly climatic conditions was characterised using CLIMEX with 10' spatial resolution climatic datasets. The species' climatic niche was projected worldwide and under future climatic scenarios. The validated model highlights the role of irrigation in supporting the occurrence of C. imicola in arid regions. In Europe, the modelled potential distribution of C. imicola extended further West than its reported distribution, raising questions regarding ongoing process of colonization and non-climatic habitat factors. The CLIMEX model highlighted similar ecological niches for C. imicola and the Australasian C. brevitarsis raising questions on biogeography and biosecurity. Under the climate change scenarios considered, its' modelled potential distribution could expand northward in the Northern hemisphere, whereas in Africa its range may contract in the future. The biosecurity risks from bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses need to be re-evaluated in regions where the vector's niche is suitable. Under a warmer climate, the risk of vector-borne epizootic pathogens such as bluetongue and African horse sickness viruses are likely to increase as the climate suitability for C. imicola shifts poleward, especially in Western Europe.
| S-EPMC4229218 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are important vectors of arboviruses in Africa. Culicoides oxystoma has been recently recorded in the Niayes region of Senegal (West Africa) and its high abundance on horses suggests a potential implication in the transmission of the African horse sickness virus in this region. This species is also suspected to transmit bluetongue virus to imported breeds of sheep. Little information is available on the biology and ecology of Culicoides in Africa. Therefore, understanding the circadian host-seeking activity of this putative vector is of primary importance to assess the risk of the transmission of Culicoides-borne pathogens. To achieve this objective, midges were collected using a sheep-baited trap over two consecutive 24-h periods during four seasons in 2012. A total of 441 Culicoides, belonging to nine species including 418 (94.8%) specimens of C. oxystoma, were collected. C. oxystoma presented a bimodal circadian host-seeking activity at sunrise and sunset in July and was active 3 h after sunrise in April. Daily activity appeared mainly related to time periods. Morning activity increased with the increasing temperature up to about 27 °C and then decreased with the decreasing humidity, suggesting thermal limits for C. oxystoma activity. Evening activity increased with the increasing humidity and the decreasing temperature, comprised between 20 and 27 °C according to seasons. Interestingly, males were more abundant in our sampling sessions, with similar activity periods than females, suggesting potential animal host implication in the facilitation of reproduction. Finally, the low number of C. oxystoma collected render practical vector-control recommendations difficult to provide and highlight the lack of knowledge on the bio-ecology of this species of veterinary interest.
| S-EPMC4513201 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Bluetongue is an arboviral disease of ruminants causing significant economic losses. Our risk assessment is based on the epidemiological key parameter, the basic reproduction number. It is defined as the number of secondary cases caused by one primary case in a fully susceptible host population, in which values greater than one indicate the possibility, i.e., the risk, for a major disease outbreak. In the course of the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) outbreak in Europe in 2006 we developed such a risk assessment for the University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria. Basic reproduction numbers were calculated using a well-known formula for vector-borne diseases considering the population densities of hosts (cattle and small ruminants) and vectors (biting midges of the Culicoides obsoletus spp.) as well as temperature dependent rates. The latter comprise the biting and mortality rate of midges as well as the reciprocal of the extrinsic incubation period. Most important, but generally unknown, is the spatio-temporal distribution of the vector density. Therefore, we established a continuously operating daily monitoring to quantify the seasonal cycle of the vector population by a statistical model. We used cross-correlation maps and Poisson regression to describe vector densities by environmental temperature and precipitation. Our results comprise time series of observed and simulated Culicoides obsoletus spp. counts as well as basic reproduction numbers for the period 2009-2011. For a spatio-temporal risk assessment we projected our results from the location of Vienna to the entire region of Austria. We compiled both daily maps of vector densities and the basic reproduction numbers, respectively. Basic reproduction numbers above one were generally found between June and August except in the mountainous regions of the Alps. The highest values coincide with the locations of confirmed BTV cases.
| S-EPMC3613389 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIn Senegal, the last epidemic of African horse sickness (AHS) occurred in 2007. The western part of the country (the Niayes area) concentrates modern farms with exotic horses of high value and was highly affected during the 2007 outbreak that has started in the area. Several studies were initiated in the Niayes area in order to better characterize Culicoides diversity, ecology and the impact of environmental and climatic data on dynamics of proven and suspected vectors. The aims of this study are to better understand the spatial distribution and diversity of Culicoides in Senegal and to map their abundance throughout the country.MethodsCulicoides data were obtained through a nationwide trapping campaign organized in 2012. Two successive collection nights were carried out in 96 sites in 12 (of 14) regions of Senegal at the end of the rainy season (between September and October) using OVI (Onderstepoort Veterinary Institute) light traps. Three different modeling approaches were compared: the first consists in a spatial interpolation by ordinary kriging of Culicoides abundance data. The two others consist in analyzing the relation between Culicoides abundance and environmental and climatic data to model abundance and investigate the environmental suitability; and were carried out by implementing generalized linear models and random forest models.ResultsA total of 1,373,929 specimens of the genus Culicoides belonging to at least 32 different species were collected in 96 sites during the survey. According to the RF (random forest) models which provided better estimates of abundances than Generalized Linear Models (GLM) models, environmental and climatic variables that influence species abundance were identified. Culicoides imicola, C. enderleini and C. miombo were mostly driven by average rainfall and minimum and maximum normalized difference vegetation index. Abundance of C. oxystoma was mostly determined by average rainfall and day temperature. Culicoides bolitinos had a particular trend; the environmental and climatic variables above had a lesser impact on its abundance. RF model prediction maps for the first four species showed high abundance in southern Senegal and in the groundnut basin area, whereas C. bolitinos was present in southern Senegal, but in much lower abundance.ConclusionsEnvironmental and climatic variables of importance that influence the spatial distribution of species abundance were identified. It is now crucial to evaluate the vector competence of major species and then combine the vector densities with densities of horses to quantify the risk of transmission of AHS virus across the country.
| S-EPMC5994048 | biostudies-literature
Project description:African horse sickness (AHS) is a disease of equids that results in a non-tariff barrier to the trade of live equids from affected countries. AHS is endemic in South Africa except for a controlled area in the Western Cape Province (WCP) where sporadic outbreaks have occurred in the past 2 decades. There is potential that the presence of zebra populations, thought to be the natural reservoir hosts for AHS, in the WCP could maintain AHS virus circulation in the area and act as a year-round source of infection for horses. However, it remains unclear whether the epidemiology or the ecological conditions present in the WCP would enable persistent circulation of AHS in the local zebra populations. Here we developed a hybrid deterministic-stochastic vector-host compartmental model of AHS transmission in plains zebra (Equus quagga), where host populations are age- and sex-structured and for which population and AHS transmission dynamics are modulated by rainfall and temperature conditions. Using this model, we showed that populations of plains zebra present in the WCP are not sufficiently large for AHS introduction events to become endemic and that coastal populations of zebra need to be >2500 individuals for AHS to persist >2 years, even if zebras are infectious for more than 50 days. AHS cannot become endemic in the coastal population of the WCP unless the zebra population involves at least 50,000 individuals. Finally, inland populations of plains zebra in the WCP may represent a risk for AHS to persist but would require populations of at least 500 zebras or show unrealistic duration of infectiousness for AHS introduction events to become endemic. Our results provide evidence that the risk of AHS persistence from a single introduction event in a given plains zebra population in the WCP is extremely low and it is unlikely to represent a long-term source of infection for local horses.
| S-EPMC6822716 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundCulicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors for many arboviruses. At least 20 species are considered as vectors or potential vectors of bluetongue virus (BTV) which cause bluetongue disease in ruminants. A BTV prevalence of 30-50% among cattle and goats in tropical southern Yunnan Province, China, prompted an investigation of the potential BTV vectors in this area.MethodsCulicoides were collected by light trapping at three sites in the tropical region of Yunnan Province. Species were identified based on morphology and DNA sequences of cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (cox1). PCR and quantitative PCR following reverse transcription were used to test for the presence of BTV RNA in these specimens. Phylogenetic analysis was used to analyze the cox1 sequences of Culicoides specimens infected with BTV.ResultsApproximately 67,000 specimens of Culicoides were collected, of which 748 were tested for the presence of BTV. Five specimens, including two of Culicoides jacobsoni, one of C. tainanus and two of C. imicola, were identified as infected with BTV. No specimens of C. (subgenus Trithecoides) or C. oxystoma tested were positive for BTV infection.ConclusionsTo our knowledge this is the first report of C. jacobsoni as a potential BTV vector and the fourth report of an association between C. tainanus and BTV, as well as the first direct evidence of an association between BTV and C. imicola in Asia. A fourth potential cryptic species within C. tainanus was identified in this study. Further analysis is required to confirm the importance of C. jacobsoni and C. tainanus in BTV epidemiology in Asia.
| S-EPMC7821528 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The possibility that outbreaks of bluetongue (BT) and African horse sickness (AHS) might occur via long-distance wind dispersion (LDWD) of their insect vector (Culicoides spp.) was proposed by R. F. Sellers in a series of papers published between 1977 and 1991. These investigated the role of LDWD by means of visual examination of the wind direction of synoptic weather charts. Based on the hypothesis that simple wind direction analysis, which does not allow for wind speed, might have led to spurious conclusions, we reanalyzed six of the outbreak scenarios described in Sellers' papers. For this reanalysis, we used a custom-built Big Data application ("TAPPAS") which couples a user-friendly web-interface with an established atmospheric dispersal model ("HYSPLIT"), thus enabling more sophisticated modeling than was possible when Sellers undertook his analyzes. For the two AHS outbreaks, there was strong support from our reanalysis of the role of LDWD for that in Spain (1966), and to a lesser degree, for the outbreak in Cyprus (1960). However, for the BT outbreaks, the reassessments were more complex, and for one of these (western Turkey, 1977) we could discount LDWD as the means of direct introduction of the virus. By contrast, while the outbreak in Cyprus (1977) showed LDWD was a possible means of introduction, there is an apparent inconsistency in that the outbreaks were localized while the dispersion events covered much of the island. For Portugal (1956), LDWD from Morocco on the dates suggested by Sellers is very unlikely to have been the pathway for introduction, and for the detection of serotype 2 in Florida (1982), LDWD from Cuba would require an assumption of a lengthy survival time of the midges in the air column. Except for western Turkey, the BT reanalyses show the limitation of LDWD modeling when used by itself, and indicates the need to integrate susceptible host population distribution (and other covariate) data into the modeling process. A further refinement, which will become increasingly important to assess LDWD, will be the use of virus and vector genome sequence data collected from potential source and the incursion sites.
| S-EPMC5517479 | biostudies-other
Project description:Bluetongue virus (BTV) and epizootic haemorrhagic disease virus (EHDV) are related orbiviruses, transmitted between their ruminant hosts primarily by certain haematophagous midge vectors (Culicoides spp.). The larger of the BTV outer-capsid proteins, 'VP2', can be cleaved by proteases (including trypsin or chymotrypsin), forming infectious subviral particles (ISVP) which have enhanced infectivity for adult Culicoides, or KC cells (a cell-line derived from C. sonorensis). We demonstrate that VP2 present on purified virus particles from 3 different BTV strains can also be cleaved by treatment with saliva from adult Culicoides. The saliva proteins from C. sonorensis (a competent BTV vector), cleaved BTV-VP2 more efficiently than those from C. nubeculosus (a less competent/non-vector species). Electrophoresis and mass spectrometry identified a trypsin-like protease in C. sonorensis saliva, which was significantly reduced or absent from C. nubeculosus saliva. Incubating purified BTV-1 with C. sonorensis saliva proteins also increased their infectivity for KC cells ∼10 fold, while infectivity for BHK cells was reduced by 2-6 fold. Treatment of an 'eastern' strain of EHDV-2 with saliva proteins of either C. sonorensis or C. nubeculosus cleaved VP2, but a 'western' strain of EHDV-2 remained unmodified. These results indicate that temperature, strain of virus and protein composition of Culicoides saliva (particularly its protease content which is dependent upon vector species), can all play a significant role in the efficiency of VP2 cleavage, influencing virus infectivity. Saliva of several other arthropod species has previously been shown to increase transmission, infectivity and virulence of certain arboviruses, by modulating and/or suppressing the mammalian immune response. The findings presented here, however, demonstrate a novel mechanism by which proteases in Culicoides saliva can also directly modify the orbivirus particle structure, leading to increased infectivity specifically for Culicoides cells and, in turn, efficiency of transmission to the insect vector.
| S-EPMC3056715 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe spread of Bluetongue virus (BTV) among ruminants is caused by movement of infected host animals or by movement of infected Culicoides midges, the vector of BTV. Biologically plausible models of Culicoides dispersal are necessary for predicting the spread of BTV and are important for planning control and eradication strategies.MethodsA spatially-explicit simulation model which captures the two underlying population mechanisms, population dynamics and movement, was developed using extensive data from a trapping program for C. brevitarsis on the east coast of Australia. A realistic midge flight sub-model was developed and the annual incursion and population establishment of C. brevitarsis was simulated. Data from the literature was used to parameterise the model.ResultsThe model was shown to reproduce the spread of C. brevitarsis southwards along the east Australian coastline in spring, from an endemic population to the north. Such incursions were shown to be reliant on wind-dispersal; Culicoides midge active flight on its own was not capable of achieving known rates of southern spread, nor was re-emergence of southern populations due to overwintering larvae. Data from midge trapping programmes were used to qualitatively validate the resulting simulation model.ConclusionsThe model described in this paper is intended to form the vector component of an extended model that will also include BTV transmission. A model of midge movement and population dynamics has been developed in sufficient detail such that the extended model may be used to evaluate the timing and extent of BTV outbreaks. This extended model could then be used as a platform for addressing the effectiveness of spatially targeted vaccination strategies or animal movement bans as BTV spread mitigation measures, or the impact of climate change on the risk and extent of outbreaks. These questions involving incursive Culicoides spread cannot be simply addressed with non-spatial models.
| S-EPMC4126746 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionCulicoides plays a crucial role as an insect vector in the field of veterinary medicine. The transmission of significant viruses such as bluetongue virus (BTV) and African horse sickness virus (AHSV) by this insect poses a substantial threat, leading to the development of severe diseases in domestic animals. This study aimed to explore the Culicoides species, identify their blood-meal sources, and assess the presence of BTV and AHSV carried by Culicoides in Yuanyang County, Yunnan Province. The aim was to gain insights into the potential vectors of these two viruses and elucidate their potential roles in the transmission of pathogens.MethodsThe midges were collected from cattle (Bos indicus), pig (Sus scrofa), and goat (Capra hircus) pens in Yuanyang County, Yunnan Province in June 2020. Initial identification of midges was conducted through morphological characteristics, followed by molecular identification using the cytochrome C oxidase subunit I (COI) gene. The determination of Culicoides blood-meal sources was accomplished using specific primers targeting the cytochrome b (Cyt b) gene from potential hosts. BTV and AHSV RNA were identified in Culicoides pools through the application of reverse transcriptase PCR and quantitative real-time PCR. Nucleotide homology and phylogenetic analysis were performed using MegAlign (DNAStar) and Mega 6.0 software.ResultsA total of 6,300 Culicoides, consisting of C. oxystoma, C. arakawai, C. imicola, and C. innoxius, were collected from cattle, pigs, and goat pens. The engorgement rates for these species were 30.2%, 54.6%, 75%, and 66.7%, respectively. In the cattle pen, the prevailing species is C. oxystoma (100%). In the pig pen, C. arakawai dominates (70%), with C. oxystoma following at 30%. In the goat pen, C. imicola holds the majority (45.45%), trailed by C. oxystoma (25%), C. innoxius (20.45%), and C. arakawai (9.09%). These Culicoides species were identified as feeding on cattle, pigs, goats, chickens (Gallus gallus), and humans (Homo sapiens). The positivity rates for BTV were 20.00% and 11.54% in blood-fed specimens of C. imicola and C. oxystoma, respectively. Conversely, the positivity rates for BTV in non-blood-fed specimens were 0.00% and 6.67% for C. imicola and C. oxystoma, respectively. BTV was not detected in C. arakawai and C. innoxius. The specimens (YY86) from C. imicola that tested positive for BTV had the closest genetic relationship to YTS-4 isolated from Mangshi, Yunnan Province in 1996. All test results for the nucleic acid of AHSV were negative.ConclusionThe study reveals variations in the species distribution, community composition, blood sucking rate, and blood-feeding sources of Culicoides across different habitats. Notably, C. imicola and C. oxystoma emerge as potential vectors for the transmission of BTV in local animals. Accordingly, this investigation provides crucial insights that can serve as a valuable reference for the prevention and control of BTV in local animals, particularly from the perspective of vector management.
| S-EPMC10809989 | biostudies-literature