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Assessing the potential of plains zebra to maintain African horse sickness in the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

ABSTRACT: African horse sickness (AHS) is a disease of equids that results in a non-tariff barrier to the trade of live equids from affected countries. AHS is endemic in South Africa except for a controlled area in the Western Cape Province (WCP) where sporadic outbreaks have occurred in the past 2 decades. There is potential that the presence of zebra populations, thought to be the natural reservoir hosts for AHS, in the WCP could maintain AHS virus circulation in the area and act as a year-round source of infection for horses. However, it remains unclear whether the epidemiology or the ecological conditions present in the WCP would enable persistent circulation of AHS in the local zebra populations. Here we developed a hybrid deterministic-stochastic vector-host compartmental model of AHS transmission in plains zebra (Equus quagga), where host populations are age- and sex-structured and for which population and AHS transmission dynamics are modulated by rainfall and temperature conditions. Using this model, we showed that populations of plains zebra present in the WCP are not sufficiently large for AHS introduction events to become endemic and that coastal populations of zebra need to be >2500 individuals for AHS to persist >2 years, even if zebras are infectious for more than 50 days. AHS cannot become endemic in the coastal population of the WCP unless the zebra population involves at least 50,000 individuals. Finally, inland populations of plains zebra in the WCP may represent a risk for AHS to persist but would require populations of at least 500 zebras or show unrealistic duration of infectiousness for AHS introduction events to become endemic. Our results provide evidence that the risk of AHS persistence from a single introduction event in a given plains zebra population in the WCP is extremely low and it is unlikely to represent a long-term source of infection for local horses.

SUBMITTER: Porphyre T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC6822716 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Background:Sub-Saharan Africa bears a disproportionate burden of mortality from trauma. District hospitals, although not trauma centres, play a critical role in the trauma care system by serving as frontline hospitals. However, the clinical characteristics of patients receiving trauma care in African district hospitals remains under-described and is a barrier to trauma care system development. We aim to describe the burden of trauma at district hospitals by analysing trauma patients at a prototypical district hospital emergency centre. Methods:An observational study was conducted in August, 2014 at Wesfleur Hospital, a district facility in the Western Cape Province of South Africa. Data were manually collected from a paper registry for all patients visiting the emergency centre. Patients with trauma were selected for further analysis. Results:Of 3299 total cases, 565 (17.1%) presented with trauma, of which 348 (61.6%) were male. Of the trauma patients, 256 (47.6%) were ages 18-34 and 298 (52.7%) presented on the weekend. Intentional injuries (assault, stab wounds, and gunshot wounds) represented 251 (44.4%) cases of trauma. There were 314 (55.6%) cases of injuries that were unintentional, including road traffic injuries. There were 144 (60%) intentionally injured patients that arrived overnight (7pm-7am). Patients with intentional injuries were three times more likely to be transferred (to higher levels of care) or admitted than patients with unintentional injuries. Conclusion:This district hospital emergency centre, with a small complement of non-EM trained physicians and no trauma surgical services, cared for a high volume of trauma with over half presenting on weekends and overnight when personnel are limited. The high volume and rate of admission/ transfer of intentional injuries suggests the need for improving prehospital trauma triage and trauma referrals. The results suggest strengthening trauma care systems at and around this resource-limited district hospital in South Africa may help alleviate the high burden of post-trauma morbidity and mortality.

Project description:In 2023, passive laboratory-based surveillance showed an increase in hepatitis A virus (HAV) infection. We investigated hepatitis A incidence using the notifiable medical condition surveillance system (NMCSS) data and molecularly characterised positive blood samples from the Western Cape province for 2023. All HAV IgM seropositive cases from the NMCSS from 1 January to 31 October 2023 in South Africa were investigated. HAV RNA from blood samples that had tested positive for HAV IgM from Western Cape was amplified in the VP1/P2B junction and sequenced (3500Xl Genetic Analyser). Sequences were assembled, aligned (Sequencher) and analysed (Aliview 1.27 and MEGA11). Statistical analysis was performed using Excel and the CuSum2 Threshold to determine suspected outbreaks. In 2023, the incidence of HAV IgM was 6.28/100,000 in South Africa, with the highest incidence in Western Cape province (15.86/100,000). Children aged 5 to 14 years were affected the most in the Western Cape. The positive cases in the Western Cape were above the CuSum2 threshold from January to May 2023, with the highest incidence observed in the City of Cape Town Metropolitan (14.8/100,000). Genotyping was successfully performed on 92.7% (139/150) of serum samples, for which the IB sub-genotype was detected. Three primary mutations R63K, R71S and M104I were observed in more than 49% of the samples. Most of the samples sequenced belonged to patients residing in areas close to each other within the City of Cape Town Southern, Western, and Mitchells Plain sub-districts. The CuSum2 threshold method allowed the identification of suspected HAV outbreaks in the districts within the Western Cape in 2023 while genotyping identified clusters of sub-genotype IB. Genotyping could assist with determining the common source of infection during an outbreak, especially if coupled with epidemiological and geographical data. Further active surveillance can assist in investigating the HAV risk factors for targeted public health responses.

Project description:IntroductionThe Western Cape Provincial Health Data Centre (PHDC) consolidates person-level clinical data across government services, leveraging sustained investments in patient registration systems, a unique identifier, and maturation of administrative and clinical digital health systems.ObjectivesThe PHDC supports clinical care directly through tools for clinicians which integrate patient data or identify patients in need of interventions, and indirectly through supporting operational and epidemiological analyses.MethodsThe PHDC is housed entirely within government. Data are processed from a range of source systems, usually daily, through distinct harmonisation and curation, beneficiation, and reporting processes. Linkage is predominantly through the unique identifier which doubles as a pervasive folder number, augmented by other identifiers. Further data processing includes triangulation of multiple data sources for enumerating health conditions, with assignment of certainty levels for each enumeration. Outputs include patient-specific email alerts, a web-based consolidated patient clinical viewing platform, filterable line-listings of patients with specific conditions and associated characteristics and outcomes, management reports and dashboards, and data releases in response to operational and research data requests. Strict architectural, administrative and governance processes ensure privacy protection.ResultsIn the past decade 8 million unique people are recorded as having sought healthcare in the provincial public sector health services, with current utilisation at 15 million attendances or admissions a year. Cross-sectional enumeration of health conditions includes over 430 000 people with HIV, 500 000 with hypertension, 235 000 with diabetes. Annually 110 000 pregnancies and 54 000 patients with tuberculosis are enumerated. Over 50 data requests are processed each year for internal and external requesters in accordance with data request and release governance processes.ConclusionsThe single consolidated environment for person-level health data in the Western Cape has created new opportunities for supporting patient care, while improving the governance around access to and release of sensitive patient data.

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Assessing the potential of plains zebra to maintain African horse sickness in the Western Cape Province, South Africa.

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