Deep mitigation for trade-embodied carbon emissions among the Belt and Road Initiative countries
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Zhang L
PROVIDER: S-EPMC11342201 | biostudies-literature | 2024 May
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:This study evaluates the impact of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on direct and indirect carbon emissions from China's manufacturing goods production and trade processes with 64 countries along the belt and road (B&R). The analysis is based on China's 189 trading partners (countries and regions) and 26 industrial sectors using the Eora Global Multi-Regional Input-Output Database for 2001-2016 and the difference-in-differences method. The results indicate that to most countries along the B&R, the carbon emissions embodied in China's manufacturing industry exports exceed import-carbon emissions. Energy and heavy industries are the main net exporters of carbon emissions. It is noted that the BRI significantly increases the carbon emissions embodied in China's manufacturing exports. The BRI's effect is more obvious in energy and heavy manufacturing, in Maritime Silk Road countries and in developing countries along the B&R. While the BRI fosters carbon emissions embodied in China's manufacturing exports by promoting export volume, and reduces them by promoting low-carbon technological innovation, improving China's relative position in the global value chain in the region does not affect carbon emissions embodied in China's manufacturing exports. Our findings lead to several important policy implications at a time when the region is experiencing enormous challenges in reducing CO2 emissions.
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Project description:The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight the role of debt sustainability in achieving sustainable development. China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an international cooperation effort that is endorsed by over 150 countries and organizations. Given the alignment between BRI development goals and the SDGs, the issue of debt sustainability in BRI countries warrants attention. While existing studies focus on sovereign risk in debt sustainability, there is a lack of emphasis on currency risk, indicating a need for further investigation to mitigate risks and comprehensively evaluate debt stability. Using data from 142 countries, this study examines currency risk reduction in BRI countries by assessing currency competitiveness. We find that the US dollar (USD) is the most competitive currency among BRI countries, followed by the Euro (EUR), Chinese yuan (CNY), sterling pound (GBP), and Japanese yen (JPY). The USD maintains its competitive edge over time, making it the preferred choice, with the EUR as a less optimal option and the CNY showing potential. Geographically, the EUR's close ties with BRI countries lend it prominence, followed by the USD, with the CNY gaining traction. GBP and JPY are considered conservative choices. Recommendations for currency selection vary based on countries' competitiveness, bilateral relationships, and development status.
| S-EPMC11244813 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a central policy within China's regional development and foreign trade strategy. Traditional trade has typically depended on economic valuation of resources, while the embedded environmental value is rarely considered. This situation exists in most BRI trade evaluations. To address BRI environmental sustainability issues, we consider the role of pivotal Chinese provinces and their key trade partners (ASEAN countries) as an illustration for the environmental value of resource exchanges. Emergy accounting is used as the valuation tool for a sample period of seventeen years. Key results include: (1) Emergy valuations show sustainability of sample provinces decreased over time; (2) ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam play significant resource roles for provincial economic systems; (3) Diverse trends in trade between pivotal provinces and ASEAN countries resulted in an unbalanced trade structure from trade. Policy implications are proposed to promote a more globally sustainable and fair trade using BRI as an established trade policy.
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Project description:Regional trade agreements (RTAs) have been widely adopted to facilitate international trade and cross-border investment and promote economic development. However, ex ante measurements of the environmental effects of RTAs to date have not been well conducted. Here, we estimate the CO2 emissions burdens of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) after evaluating its economic effects. We find that trade among RCEP member countries will increase significantly and economic output will expand with the reduction of regional tariffs. However, the results show that complete tariff elimination among RCEP members would increase the yearly global CO2 emissions from fuel combustion by about 3.1%, doubling the annual average growth rate of global CO2 emissions in the last decade. The emissions in some developing members will surge. In the longer run, the burdens can be lessened to some extent by the technological spillover effects of deeper trade liberalization. We stress that technological advancement and more effective climate policies are urgently required to avoid undermining international efforts to reduce global emissions.
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Project description:BackgroundSince 2015, the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) has measured progress in achieving health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) annually worldwide. Little is known about the status and attainment of indicators of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) by 65 countries from the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) proposed by China in 2013.MethodsData from GBDs were used to estimate 24 NCD-related SDG indicators in BRI countries from 1990 to 2017. Each indicator was scored from 0 to 100 to compare multiple indicators over the study period. The natural log of the annual change in each location and year and weighted annual rates of change were used to generate projections for 2030. National-level estimates were determined by socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles in BRI countries with more than 1 million inhabitants.ResultsIn 2017, the median overall score of NCD-related SDG index for the 66 BRI countries was 60 points, ranging from 29 points in Afghanistan to 84 points in Israel. More than 80% of countries achieved the SDG 2030 maternal mortality (MM) rate target in 2017, and the national skilled birth attendance rate was above 99% in more than 59% countries. However, none of the BRI countries achieved the goal for children's overweight, modern methods of contraception, and universal health coverage. It was predicted that 80.4% of NCD-related SDG targets would be achieved in these countries by 2030. The overall score of NCD-related SDG index were positively associated with SDI quintiles.ConclusionFor many indicators, the achieved progress in many countries is less than the annual rate necessary to meet SDG targets, indicating that substantial efforts need to be made in the coming years. Progress should be accelerated through collaborations between countries, implementation of NCD prevention and control strategies, and monitoring of inequalities in NCD-related SDGs within populations.
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Project description:This study assesses the degree of internationalization of Chinese firms along the Belt and Road initiative countries. Most of the extant studies of the Belt and Road initiative have been qualitative, and where there have been quantitative studies, they have usually been at the aggregate level, and only a handful have used firm-level data to study initiative. Using a composite measure of the degree of internationalization, DOIBRI, that composed of variables capturing the performance, structural and attitudinal dimensions of internationalization, comparative analysis of State-owned enterprises and privately owned enterprises turned up counter-intuitive results. Firstly, given that state ownership could be positively associated with the degree of internationalization of firms and because of the significance of the Belt and Road initiative, we expected the State-owned enterprises to dominate the DOIBRIrankings. We assessed the firms, and contrary to expectations, privately owned firms had a higher average degree of internationalization. Furthermore, we expected both state-owned enterprises and privately-owned enterprises to have similar levels of psychic dispersion. However, state-owned enterprises were more psychically dispersed. Suggesting that along the belt and road countries, the advantages of state ownership of Chinese multinationals may be attenuated.
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Project description:The Middle East holds a critical strategic position in global politics, economy, and military affairs, serving as a pivotal hub for the advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) through both land and sea routes. Since the proposal of BRI, China's cooperation with Middle Eastern countries has steadily deepened. Consequently, examining the evolution of China's interaction with Middle Eastern nations over the past decade is of paramount significance for future development. This study utilizes the GDELT database to construct formulas for measuring event impact and bilateral relationship intensity. It analyzes the temporal development and spatial patterns of China's interaction with Middle Eastern countries while also examining the types of interactive relationships between China and individual countries in the Middle East under the principle of reciprocity. The findings indicate that the overall interaction between China and Middle Eastern countries remains stable. Cooperative relationships have transitioned from a "single cooperation" approach to a "dual cooperation" model involving Iran and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the development trajectory has shifted from an imbalanced "north-high, south-low" pattern towards equilibrium, resulting in a general decline in conflict relations and a decrease in inter-country disparities. The prevalent type of interaction between countries is characterized by balance.
| S-EPMC10635491 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Emissions embodied in provincial trade (EEPT) have important effects on provinces' responsibilities for carbon emission reductions. Based on a multi-regional input-output model, we calculated EEPT for China's 30 provinces in 2002, 2007 and 2010, and we attempted to determine the drivers of EEPT. The results showed that, during this period, the ratio of EEPT to production-based emissions increased over time, reaching 40.24% in 2010. In consideration of its important role in carbon emissions, we analyzed the factors attributable to EEPT through structure decomposition analysis. The decomposition results showed that final demand and carbon emission intensity were two major factors in EEPT, while the final demand in other provinces and the carbon emission intensity in the local province were major factors for Emissions embodied in provincial exports and the final demand in the local province and the carbon emission intensity in other provinces were major factors for Emissions embodied in provincial imports. Regarding the differences among the EEPT of different provinces, changes in the structure of trade were the primary reason.
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Project description:This study evaluates the nexus of regional integration, socioeconomic determinants and sustainable development (SD) by investigating the effect of health, humans and age structure on sustainable development, with the regional integration (RI) as the moderating variable. Socioeconomic determinants have an important role in sustainable development, while regional integration has fueled up the development process. The sample is based on 64 Belt and Road (BRI) countries from 2003-2018. Pair-wise correlation results indicate that human development, health expenditure and age structure showed a positive relationship with sustainable development. Two-step System-GMM direct effect outcomes are mixed and reveal that human development, health expenditure per capita, age structure, governance index and population size have a positive impact on sustainable development. On the other hand, e-government, government size, and globalization showed negative effects on SD. Apart from that, the moderating channel of regional integration (RI), interaction term with human development and health expenditure, showed a significant and positive impact on sustainable development. However, age structure interaction with regional integration showed a negative impact on SD. Other socio-economic factors, i.e., governance index and population contribute positively towards SD. It can be concluded that the dynamic nature of sustainable development is positive and the net present value is increasing. Therefore, BRI countries are on the sustainable path from 2003-2018, as suggested by economic and social welfare theory. The integration of BRI can be labeled as an entrance to successful sustainable development. However, weak e-government systems, globalization and government resources need to be utilized amicably in Belt and Road countries. Driscoll-Kraay standard-errors regression confirmed and validated the two-step System-GMM results. The findings of the current research have important policy implications for balanced and sustainable growth.
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Project description:Economic vulnerability is an important indicator to measure regional coordination, health and stability. Despite the importance of vulnerabilities, this is the first study that presents 26 indicators selected from the dimensions of the domestic economic system, external economic system and financial system in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. A quantitative analysis is conducted to analyze the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability of the economic subsystems and the comprehensive economic system of the BRI countries and the main influencing factors of the comprehensive economic system vulnerability (CESV) are identified based on obstacle degree model. The results show that the CESV of the East Asia, South Asia and ASEAN countries are lower than that of the Middle Eastern Europe, Central Asia and West Asia countries. The CESV of the BRI countries are generally in the middle level and the average vulnerability index of highly vulnerable countries is twice as much as that of lowly vulnerable countries. In addition, in terms of the vulnerability of the three subsystems, the spatial distribution of vulnerability of the domestic economic system (DESV) and financial system (FSV) is basically consistent with the spatial distribution pattern of CESV, both of which are low in East Asia and South Asia and high in West Asia and Central Asia. While, the vulnerability of external economic system (EESV) shows a different spatial pattern, with vulnerability of West Asia, Central Asia and ASEAN higher than that of East Asia and South Asia. The main obstacle factors influencing the CESV of BRI countries include GDP growth rate, saving ratio, ratio of bank capital to assets, service industry level, industrialization level and loan rate. Therefore, the key way to maintain the stability and mitigate the vulnerability of the economic system of BRI countries is to focus on the macroeconomic development and operation, stimulate the economy and market vitality, promote the development of industries, especially the service and secondary industries, and optimize the economic structure, banking system and financial system.
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