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Assessment and influencing factors analysis of economic system vulnerability of the Belt and Road Initiative countries.

ABSTRACT: Economic vulnerability is an important indicator to measure regional coordination, health and stability. Despite the importance of vulnerabilities, this is the first study that presents 26 indicators selected from the dimensions of the domestic economic system, external economic system and financial system in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) countries. A quantitative analysis is conducted to analyze the characteristics of spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability of the economic subsystems and the comprehensive economic system of the BRI countries and the main influencing factors of the comprehensive economic system vulnerability (CESV) are identified based on obstacle degree model. The results show that the CESV of the East Asia, South Asia and ASEAN countries are lower than that of the Middle Eastern Europe, Central Asia and West Asia countries. The CESV of the BRI countries are generally in the middle level and the average vulnerability index of highly vulnerable countries is twice as much as that of lowly vulnerable countries. In addition, in terms of the vulnerability of the three subsystems, the spatial distribution of vulnerability of the domestic economic system (DESV) and financial system (FSV) is basically consistent with the spatial distribution pattern of CESV, both of which are low in East Asia and South Asia and high in West Asia and Central Asia. While, the vulnerability of external economic system (EESV) shows a different spatial pattern, with vulnerability of West Asia, Central Asia and ASEAN higher than that of East Asia and South Asia. The main obstacle factors influencing the CESV of BRI countries include GDP growth rate, saving ratio, ratio of bank capital to assets, service industry level, industrialization level and loan rate. Therefore, the key way to maintain the stability and mitigate the vulnerability of the economic system of BRI countries is to focus on the macroeconomic development and operation, stimulate the economy and market vitality, promote the development of industries, especially the service and secondary industries, and optimize the economic structure, banking system and financial system.

SUBMITTER: Li Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8759676 | biostudies-literature |

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:BackgroundAt present, "Belt and Road" ("B&R") member states (accounting for about 61.78% of the world's population) face different types of cancer threats to varying degrees. We analyzed the incidence and mortality and risk factors of cancer in the member countries of the "B&R" to explore the basis of health and medical cooperation between countries and provide a foundation for formulating cancer prevention and control policies for building a healthy "B&R."MethodsData were derived from the Global Cancer Observatory and Cancer Country Profiles in 2020. Incidence and mortality were age-standardized rates (ASRs). Population attributable fractions (PAFs) was applied to measure risk factors of cancers in the "B&R" countries. The mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) was calculated by dividing the mortality rate by the incidence rate.ResultsA total of 26 cancers were included in the study. Lung, breast, colorectal, stomach, liver, prostate, cervical, esophageal, thyroid, and uterine cancers were the most common and highest in age-standardized mortality in the "B&R" countries. For men, Hungary had the highest cancer age-standardized incidence and mortality (ASR, 289.3 per 100,000 and ASR, 235.7 per 100,000, respectively), followed by Latvia (ASR, 288.6 per 100,000 and ASR, 196.5 per 100,000, respectively). In females, the highest incidence rates were estimated in Greece (ASR, 238.7 per 100,000), and the highest mortality rate was Brunei (ASR, 192.3 per 100,000). All countries were in the middle or high HDI range, with about half (46.88%) of countries achieving high HDI, mostly in Central and Eastern Europe (13 countries) and West Asia (10 countries). The United Arab Emirates had the highest MIR in male and female (1.59 vs 2.19). Tobacco products, infectious factors, and ultraviolet rays were the three main cancer risk factors in the "B&R" countries.ConclusionThe overall burden of cancer in the countries along the "B&R" remains substantial, while the corresponding cancer prevention and control policies need to be improved. Strengthening health cooperation among member countries will contribute to a joint response to the risks and challenges posed by cancer.

Project description:This study evaluates the nexus of regional integration, socioeconomic determinants and sustainable development (SD) by investigating the effect of health, humans and age structure on sustainable development, with the regional integration (RI) as the moderating variable. Socioeconomic determinants have an important role in sustainable development, while regional integration has fueled up the development process. The sample is based on 64 Belt and Road (BRI) countries from 2003-2018. Pair-wise correlation results indicate that human development, health expenditure and age structure showed a positive relationship with sustainable development. Two-step System-GMM direct effect outcomes are mixed and reveal that human development, health expenditure per capita, age structure, governance index and population size have a positive impact on sustainable development. On the other hand, e-government, government size, and globalization showed negative effects on SD. Apart from that, the moderating channel of regional integration (RI), interaction term with human development and health expenditure, showed a significant and positive impact on sustainable development. However, age structure interaction with regional integration showed a negative impact on SD. Other socio-economic factors, i.e., governance index and population contribute positively towards SD. It can be concluded that the dynamic nature of sustainable development is positive and the net present value is increasing. Therefore, BRI countries are on the sustainable path from 2003-2018, as suggested by economic and social welfare theory. The integration of BRI can be labeled as an entrance to successful sustainable development. However, weak e-government systems, globalization and government resources need to be utilized amicably in Belt and Road countries. Driscoll-Kraay standard-errors regression confirmed and validated the two-step System-GMM results. The findings of the current research have important policy implications for balanced and sustainable growth.

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Assessment and influencing factors analysis of economic system vulnerability of the Belt and Road Initiative countries.

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