Project description:The relationship between corruption and tourism has been sporadically examined over the years. According to the existing theory, there is an inverted U relationship which implies that tourism demand initially increases as corruption increases (greasing the wheels) and after a certain threshold level of corruption, tourism demand decreases (sanding the wheels). Empirical studies so far concentrated on capturing the nonlinear relationship, by applying a simple linear model and by including corruption as a quadratic term. In the current paper, the authors revisit the "greasing and sanding the wheels" hypothesis by applying an advanced econometric technique, the threshold regression model, which deals with a key element of model uncertainty, namely parameter heterogeneity. In particular, using a sample of 83 countries from 2001 to 2018, the authors firstly examine if there is a nonlinear relationship between corruption and tourism, and then, they estimate the threshold value of corruption. According to the results, the null hypothesis of a linear model against the alternative of a threshold model with two regimes is strongly rejected. Furthermore, while the effect of corruption on tourism is positive in the low corruption regime and negative in the high corruption regime, a heterogeneous relationship is also found between other politico-socio-economic variables and tourism demand in the low and high corruption regimes.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00181-021-02193-2.
Project description:BackgroundMillions of dollars are invested annually under the umbrella of national health systems strengthening. Global health initiatives provide funding for low- and middle-income countries through disease-oriented programmes while maintaining that the interventions simultaneously strengthen systems. However, it is as yet unclear which, and to what extent, system-level interventions are being funded by these initiatives, nor is it clear how much funding they allocate to disease-specific activities - through conventional 'vertical-programming' approach. Such funding can be channelled to one or more of the health system building blocks while targeting disease(s) or explicitly to system-wide activities.MethodsWe operationalized the World Health Organization health system framework of the six building blocks to conduct a detailed assessment of Global Fund health system investments. Our application of this framework framework provides a comprehensive quantification of system-level interventions. We applied this systematically to a random subset of 52 of the 139 grants funded in Round 8 of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (totalling approximately US$1 billion).ResultsAccording to the analysis, 37% (US$ 362 million) of the Global Fund Round 8 funding was allocated to health systems strengthening. Of that, 38% (US$ 139 million) was for generic system-level interventions, rather than disease-specific system support. Around 82% of health systems strengthening funding (US$ 296 million) was allocated to service delivery, human resources, and medicines & technology, and within each of these to two to three interventions. Governance, financing, and information building blocks received relatively low funding.ConclusionsThis study shows that a substantial portion of Global Fund's Round 8 funds was devoted to health systems strengthening. Dramatic skewing among the health system building blocks suggests opportunities for more balanced investments with regard to governance, financing, and information system related interventions. There is also a need for agreement, by researchers, recipients, and donors, on keystone interventions that have the greatest system-level impacts for the cost-effective use of funds. Effective health system strengthening depends on inter-agency collaboration and country commitment along with concerted partnership among all the stakeholders working in the health system.
Project description:ObjectivesThe impact of donors, such as national government (bi-lateral), private sector, and individual financial (philanthropic) contributions, on domestic health policies of developing nations has been the subject of scholarly discourse. Little is known, however, about the impact of global financial initiatives, such as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, on policies and health governance of countries receiving funding from such initiatives.MethodsThis study employs a qualitative methodological design based on a single case study: Brazil. Analysis at national, inter-governmental and community levels is based on in-depth interviews with the Global Fund and the Brazilian Ministry of Health and civil societal activists. Primary research is complemented with information from printed media, reports, journal articles, and books, which were used to deepen our analysis while providing supporting evidence.ResultsOur analysis suggests that in Brazil, Global Fund financing has helped to positively transform health governance at three tiers of analysis: the national-level, inter-governmental-level, and community-level. At the national-level, Global Fund financing has helped to increased political attention and commitment to relatively neglected diseases, such as tuberculosis, while harmonizing intra-bureaucratic relationships; at the inter-governmental-level, Global Fund financing has motivated the National Tuberculosis Programme to strengthen its ties with state and municipal health departments, and non-governmental organisations (NGOs); while at the community-level, the Global Fund's financing of civil societal institutions has encouraged the emergence of new civic movements, participation, and the creation of new municipal participatory institutions designed to monitor the disbursement of funds for Global Fund grants.ConclusionsGlobal Fund financing can help deepen health governance at multiple levels. Future work will need to explore how the financing of civil society by the Global Fund and other donors influence policy agenda-setting and institutional innovations for increased civic participation in health governance and accountability to citizens.
Project description:BACKGROUND: An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding. METHODS: Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries. RESULTS: Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds. CONCLUSION: This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.
Project description:The Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has proven highly effective at fighting the world's major killers. Strong governance and robust development institutions are necessary, however, for improving health long-term. While some suggest that international aid can strengthen institutions, others worry that aid funding will undermine governance, creating long-term harm. The Global Fund is a unique aid institution with mechanisms designed to improve transparency and accountability, but the effectiveness of this architecture is not clear. This study seeks evidence on the effects of Fund financing over the past 15 years on national governance and development. A unique dataset from 112 low- and middle-income countries was constructed with data from 2003 to 2017 on Global Fund financing and multiple measures of health, development, and governance. Building a set of regression models, we estimate the relationship between Fund financing and key indicators of good governance and development, controlling for multiple factors, including the effects of other aid programs and tests for reverse causality. We find that Global Fund support is associated with improved control of corruption, government accountability, political freedoms, regulatory quality, and rule of law, though association with effective policy implementation is less clear. We also find associated benefit for overall adult mortality and human development. Our data are not consistent with recent claims that aid undermines governance. Instead our findings support the proposition that the Global Fund architecture is making it possible to address the continuing crises of AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria in ways that improve institutions, fight corruption, and support development. Amidst the complex political economy that produces good governance at a national level, our finding of a beneficial effect of health aid suggests important lessons for aid in other settings.
Project description:Poaching is contributing to rapid declines in elephant populations across Africa. Following high-profile changes in the political environment, the overall number of illegally killed elephants in Africa seems to be falling, but to evaluate potential conservation interventions we must understand the processes driving poaching rates at local and global scales. Here we show that annual poaching rates in 53 sites strongly correlate with proxies of ivory demand in the main Chinese markets, whereas between-country and between-site variation is strongly associated with indicators of corruption and poverty. Our analysis reveals a recent decline in annual poaching mortality rate from an estimated peak of over 10% in 2011 to <4% in 2017. Based on these findings, we suggest that continued investment in law enforcement could further reduce poaching, but is unlikely to succeed without action that simultaneously reduces ivory demand and tackles corruption and poverty.
Project description:To analyse stakeholder opinions and expectations of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria, and to discuss their potential economic and financial implications.The Global Fund commissioned an independent study, the '360 degrees Stakeholder Survey', to canvas feedback on the organization's reputation and performance with an on-line survey of 909 respondents representing major stakeholders worldwide. We created a proxy for expectations based on categorical responses for specific Global Fund attributes' importance to the stakeholders and current perceived performance.Using multivariate regression, we analysed 23 unfulfilled expectations related to: resource mobilization; impact measurement; harmonization and inclusion; effectiveness of the Global Fund partner environment; and portfolio characteristics. The independent variables are personal and regional-level characteristics that affect expectations.The largest unfulfilled expectations relate to: mobilization of private sector resources; efficiency in disbursing funds; and assurance that people affected by the three diseases are reached. Stakeholders involved with the fund through the country coordinating mechanisms, those working in multilateral organizations and persons living with HIV are more likely to have unfulfilled expectations. In contrast, higher levels of involvement with the fund correlate with fulfilled expectations. Stakeholders living in sub-Saharan Africa were less likely to have their expectations met.Stakeholders' unfulfilled expectations result largely from factors external to them, but also from factors over which they have influence. In particular, attributes related to partnership score poorly even though stakeholders have influence in that area. Joint efforts to address perceived performance gaps may improve future performance and positively influence investment levels and economic viability.
Project description:BackgroundImplementation of the Charter to protect patients' rights is an important criterion to achieve patient-centered approach and receive financial support from the Global Fund. Our study aims to explore the knowledge of tuberculosis (TB) patients about their rights and responsibilities at the Chest Disease Unit of the Bahawal Victoria Hospital, Bahawalpur, Pakistan.MethodsThis was a qualitative study. The data from purposefully selected TB patients was collected by in-depth interviews. Eligibility criteria included confirmed diagnosis of TB and enrollment in the TB program. A pilot tested interview protocol was based upon the objectives of the study, and was used uniformly in each interview to maintain the consistency. The sample size was limited by applying the saturation criteria. All interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. Inductive thematic content analysis was applied to analyze the data and draw conclusions.ResultsOut of the total 16 patients, four were female, and seven were illiterate. Eight patients were known cases of multi-drug resistant TB. Analysis of the data yielded seven themes; tuberculosis care services, moral support and stigmatization, dignity and privacy, complaints, fear of losing job, information sharing and compliance to the treatment plan, and contribution to eradicate TB. First five represented the rights section while latter two were related to the responsibilities section of the Charter.ConclusionDiscriminatory access to TB care services and the right to privacy were two major concerns identified in this study. However, the respondents recognized their responsibilities as a TB patient. To ensure uninterrupted investment from the Global Fund, there is a need to implement fair TB care policies which support human rights-based approach.
Project description:BackgroundBy the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020.Methods and findingsSurvival on first-line and second-line ART regimens is estimated based on annual retention rates reported by national AIDS programs. Costs per patient-year were calculated from country-reported ARV procurement prices, and expenditures on laboratory tests, health care utilization and end-of-life care from in-depth costing studies. Of the 3.5 million ART patients in 2011, 2.3 million will still need treatment in 2020. The annual cost of maintaining ART falls from $1.9 billion in 2011 to $1.7 billion in 2020, as a result of a declining number of surviving patients partially offset by increasing costs as more patients migrate to second-line therapy. The Global Fund is expected to continue being a major contributor to meeting this financial need, alongside other international funders and domestic resources. Costs would be $150 million less in 2020 with an annual 5% decline in first-line ARV prices and $150-370 million less with a 5%-12% annual decline in second-line prices, but $200 million higher in 2020 with phase out of stavudine (d4T), or $200 million higher with increased migration to second-line regimens expected if all countries routinely adopted viral load monitoring. Deaths postponed by ART correspond to 830,000 life-years saved in 2011, increasing to around 2.3 million life-years every year between 2015 and 2020.ConclusionsAnnual patient-level direct costs of supporting a patient cohort remain fairly stable over 2011-2020, if current antiretroviral prices and delivery costs are maintained. Second-line antiretroviral prices are a major cost driver, underscoring the importance of investing in treatment quality to improve retention on first-line regimens.
Project description:BackgroundDespite the large investments in donor-related health activities in areas of the globe prone to tension and conflict, few studies have examined in detail the role of these donor investments in human resources for health (HRH).MethodsWe used a mixed-methods research methodology comprising both quantitative and qualitative analyses to analyze the Enhanced Financial Reporting System of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria budget and expenditure data from 2003 to 2017 for 13 countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR). We analyzed additional detailed budgetary data over the period 2015-2017 for a sub-set of these countries. Two country-case studies were conducted in Afghanistan and Sudan for a more in-depth understanding of the HRH-related activities that occurred as a result of Global Fund grants.ResultsThe results show that US$2.2 billion Global Fund dollars had been budgeted and US$1.6 billion were expended over the period 2003-2017 in 13 Eastern Mediterranean countries. The average expenditures for human resources for health (training and human resources) as a percentage of total expenditure are 28%. Additional detailed budgetary data analysis shows a more conservative investment in HRH with 13% of total budgets allocated to "direct" HRH activities such as salaries, training costs, and technical assistance. HRH-related activities supported by the Global Fund in Afghanistan and Sudan were similar, including pre-service and in-services training, hiring of program coordinators and staff, and top-ups for clinical staff.ConclusionsHRH remains a key issue in strengthening the health systems of low- and middle-income countries. While this study suggests that Global Fund's HRH investments in the EMR are not lagging behind the global average, there appears to be a need to further scale up these investments considering this region's unique HRH challenges.