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Predicting short-term stock fluctuations by using processing fluency.

ABSTRACT: Three studies investigated the impact of the psychological principle of fluency (that people tend to prefer easily processed information) on short-term share price movements. In both a laboratory study and two analyses of naturalistic real-world stock market data, fluently named stocks robustly outperformed stocks with disfluent names in the short term. For example, in one study, an initial investment of 1,000 US dollars yielded a profit of 112 US dollars more after 1 day of trading for a basket of fluently named shares than for a basket of disfluently named shares. These results imply that simple, cognitive approaches to modeling human behavior sometimes outperform more typical, complex alternatives.

SUBMITTER: Alter AL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1482615 | biostudies-literature | 2006 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting short-term stock fluctuations by using processing fluency.

Alter Adam L AL Oppenheimer Daniel M DM

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20060605 24

Three studies investigated the impact of the psychological principle of fluency (that people tend to prefer easily processed information) on short-term share price movements. In both a laboratory study and two analyses of naturalistic real-world stock market data, fluently named stocks robustly outperformed stocks with disfluent names in the short term. For example, in one study, an initial investment of 1,000 US dollars yielded a profit of 112 US dollars more after 1 day of trading for a basket ...[more]

PMID: 16754871

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