Transients and attractors in epidemics.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Bauch CT
PROVIDER: S-EPMC1691412 | biostudies-literature | 2003 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Transients and attractors in epidemics.
Bauch Chris T CT Earn David J D DJ
Proceedings. Biological sciences 20030801 1524
Historical records of childhood disease incidence reveal complex dynamics. For measles, a simple model has indicated that epidemic patterns represent attractors of a nonlinear dynamic system and that transitions between different attractors are driven by slow changes in birth rates and vaccination levels. The same analysis can explain the main features of chickenpox dynamics, but fails for rubella and whooping cough. We show that an additional (perturbative) analysis of the model, together with ...[more]
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