Dataset Information

Detecting alternative attractors in ecosystem dynamics.

ABSTRACT: Dynamical systems theory suggests that ecosystems may exhibit alternative dynamical attractors. Such alternative attractors, as for example equilibria and cycles, have been found in the dynamics of experimental systems. Yet, for natural systems, where multiple biotic and abiotic factors simultaneously affect population dynamics, it is more challenging to distinguish alternative dynamical behaviors. Although recent research exemplifies that some natural systems can exhibit alternative states, a robust methodology for testing whether these constitute distinct dynamical attractors is currently lacking. Here, using attractor reconstruction techniques we develop such a test. Applications of the methodology to simulated, experimental and natural time series data, reveal that alternative dynamical behaviors are hard to distinguish if population dynamics are governed by purely stochastic processes. However, if population dynamics are brought about also by mechanisms internal to the system, alternative attractors can readily be detected. Since many natural populations display evidence of such internally driven dynamics, our approach offers a method for empirically testing whether ecosystems exhibit alternative dynamical attractors.

SUBMITTER: Saterberg T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8370982 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Detecting alternative attractors in ecosystem dynamics.

Säterberg Torbjörn T McCann Kevin K

Communications biology 20210817 1

Dynamical systems theory suggests that ecosystems may exhibit alternative dynamical attractors. Such alternative attractors, as for example equilibria and cycles, have been found in the dynamics of experimental systems. Yet, for natural systems, where multiple biotic and abiotic factors simultaneously affect population dynamics, it is more challenging to distinguish alternative dynamical behaviors. Although recent research exemplifies that some natural systems can exhibit alternative states, a r ...[more]

PMID: 34404903

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Project description:Significance Ecological theory predicts that under the same environmental conditions, an ecosystem could have more than one community state that is maintained by reinforcing feedbacks. If so, a sufficiently large disturbance can flip the system to a less desired community that is difficult to reverse. Here, we demonstrate that a coral reef can become trapped in a seaweed-dominated state in the same conditions under which corals thrive. The implications are profound, particularly in light of the increasing occurrence of shifts to seaweed on coral reefs worldwide. Our results indicate that anticipatory management strategies that lessen the chance of a switch to seaweeds will be more effective than those aimed at restoring the coral community after a shift. Ecological theory predicts that ecosystems with multiple basins of attraction can get locked in an undesired state, which has profound ecological and management implications. Despite their significance, alternative attractors have proven to be challenging to detect and characterize in natural communities. On coral reefs, it has been hypothesized that persistent coral-to-macroalgae “phase shifts” that can result from overfishing of herbivores and/or nutrient enrichment may reflect a regime shift to an alternate attractor, but, to date, the evidence has been equivocal. Our field experiments in Moorea, French Polynesia, revealed the following: (i) hysteresis existed in the herbivory–macroalgae relationship, creating the potential for coral–macroalgae bistability at some levels of herbivory, and (ii) macroalgae were an alternative attractor under prevailing conditions in the lagoon but not on the fore reef, where ambient herbivory fell outside the experimentally delineated region of hysteresis. These findings help explain the different community responses to disturbances between lagoon and fore reef habitats of Moorea over the past several decades and reinforce the idea that reversing an undesired shift on coral reefs can be difficult. Our experimental framework represents a powerful diagnostic tool to probe for multiple attractors in ecological systems and, as such, can inform management strategies needed to maintain critical ecosystem functions in the face of escalating stresses.

Dataset Information

Detecting alternative attractors in ecosystem dynamics.

Publications

Detecting alternative attractors in ecosystem dynamics.

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