Dataset Information

Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures.

ABSTRACT: We extended an existing back-calculation model to analyse data on reported clinical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), data from random testing of healthy animals slaughtered in abattoirs and testing data from animals reported as sick or dying on the farm. Extensive analysis of demographic data was also undertaken. We estimated past and current BSE infection prevalences in the cattle population and the degree of case under-ascertainment resulting from excess mortality in cattle near to disease onset. Ongoing levels of human exposure to BSE infectivity were also estimated, together with the effect on these of a range of possible exposure-reduction strategies that might replace the current rule banning tissue from cattle over 30 months (OTM) of age from the human food supply. While any policy change that allows a wider age range of animals into the human food supply will increase levels of human exposure to infectivity, the risk posed by such increases is small by comparison with historical exposure levels. Making the pessimistic assumption that there will be 5000 deaths during the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in total, our analysis indicates that replacement of the OTM rule with testing would result in 0.04 additional vCJD deaths over the next 60 years. However, there is substantial (more than 40-fold) uncertainty surrounding this estimate, the sources of which are discussed.

SUBMITTER: Ferguson NM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1691417 | biostudies-literature | 2003 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures.

Ferguson Neil M NM Donnelly Christl A CA

Proceedings. Biological sciences 20030801 1524

We extended an existing back-calculation model to analyse data on reported clinical cases of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), data from random testing of healthy animals slaughtered in abattoirs and testing data from animals reported as sick or dying on the farm. Extensive analysis of demographic data was also undertaken. We estimated past and current BSE infection prevalences in the cattle population and the degree of case under-ascertainment resulting from excess mortality in cattle nea ...[more]

PMID: 12908978

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Project description:Prion diseases, such as bovine spongiform encephalopathies (BSE), are transmissible neurodegenerative disorders affecting humans and a wide variety of mammals. Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), a prion disease in humans, has been linked to exposure to BSE prions. This classical BSE (cBSE) is now rapidly disappearing as a result of appropriate measures to control animal feeding. Besides cBSE, two atypical forms (named H- and L-type BSE) have recently been described in Europe, Japan, and North America. Here we describe the first wide-spectrum microarray analysis in whole blood of atypical BSE-infected cattle. Transcriptome changes in infected animals were analyzed prior to and after the onset of clinical signs. The microarray analysis revealed gene expression changes in blood prior to the appearance of the clinical signs and during the progression of the disease. A set of 32 differentially expressed genes was found to be in common between clinical and preclinical stages and showed a very similar expression pattern in the two phases. A 22-gene signature showed an oscillating pattern of expression, being differentially expressed in the preclinical stage and then going back to control levels in the symptomatic phase. One gene, SEL1L3, was downregulated during the progression of the disease. Most of the studies performed up to date utilized various tissues, which are not suitable for a rapid analysis of infected animals and patients. Our findings suggest the intriguing possibility to take advantage of whole blood RNA transcriptional profiling for the preclinical identification of prion infection. Further, this study highlighted several pathways, such as immune response and metabolism that may play an important role in peripheral prion pathogenesis. Finally, the gene expression changes identified in the present study may be further investigated as a fingerprint for monitoring the progression of disease and for developing targeted therapeutic interventions.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Heart rate variability (HRV) analysis is a method to assess the function of the autonomic nervous system. Brainstem nuclei that influence HRV are affected by vacuolar changes and accumulation of disease-associated prion protein (PrPd) in bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) resulting in clinical signs suggestive of an increased parasympathetic tone. It was hypothesised that BSE in cattle causes changes in the autonomic nervous system; this was tested by comparing HRV indices derived from 1048 electrocardiograms, which were recorded from 51 naturally or experimentally infected cattle with BSE confirmed by postmortem tests, 321 clinical suspect cases or cattle inoculated with potentially infectious tissue without disease confirmation and 78 BSE-free control cattle. FINDINGS:Statistically significant differences were found for low or high frequency power, their normalised values and ratio when the last recording prior to cull or repeated recordings were compared but only between male and female cattle of the three groups and not between groups of the same gender, even though BSE cases of each gender appeared to be more nervous during the recording. The same findings were made for heart rate, deviation from the mean RR interval and vasovagal tonus index when repeated recordings were compared. BSE cases with severe vacuolar changes in the parasympathetic nucleus of the vagus nerve had a significantly lower low:high frequency power ratio but not a lower heart rate than BSE cases with mild vacuolation, whereas severity of vacuolar changes in the solitary tract nucleus or intensity of PrPd accumulation in both nuclei did not appear to have any affect on either index. Abnormalities in the electrocardiogram were detected in 3% of the recordings irrespective of the BSE status; sinus arrhythmia was present in 93% of the remaining recordings. CONCLUSIONS:HRV analysis was not useful to distinguish BSE-positive from BSE-negative cattle grouped by gender, and HRV indices appeared to be mainly influenced by gender. There is agreement with earlier studies that vacuolar changes in the brainstem may be associated with an increased parasympathetic tone in BSE and that abnormalities in an electrocardiogram can be detected in cattle without evidence of heart disease.

Dataset Information

Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures.

Publications

Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures.

Similar Datasets

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