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Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases.

ABSTRACT: Early warning systems (EWS) are management tools to predict the occurrence of epidemics of infectious diseases. While climate-based EWS have been developed for malaria, no standard protocol to evaluate and compare EWS has been proposed. Additionally, there are several neglected tropical diseases whose transmission is sensitive to environmental conditions, for which no EWS have been proposed, though they represent a large burden for the affected populations.In the present paper, an overview of the available linear and non-linear tools to predict seasonal time series of diseases is presented. Also, a general methodology to compare and evaluate models for prediction is presented and illustrated using American cutaneous leishmaniasis, a neglected tropical disease, as an example. The comparison of the different models using the predictive R(2) for forecasts of "out-of-fit" data (data that has not been used to fit the models) shows that for the several linear and non-linear models tested, the best results were obtained for seasonal autoregressive (SAR) models that incorporate climatic covariates. An additional bootstrapping experiment shows that the relationship of the disease time series with the climatic covariates is strong and consistent for the SAR modeling approach. While the autoregressive part of the model is not significant, the exogenous forcing due to climate is always statistically significant. Prediction accuracy can vary from 50% to over 80% for disease burden at time scales of one year or shorter.this study illustrates a protocol for the development of EWS that includes three main steps: (i) the fitting of different models using several methodologies, (ii) the comparison of models based on the predictability of "out-of-fit" data, and (iii) the assessment of the robustness of the relationship between the disease and the variables in the model selected as best with an objective criterion.

SUBMITTER: Chaves LF

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2041810 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases.

Chaves Luis Fernando LF Pascual Mercedes M

PLoS neglected tropical diseases 20071022 1

<h4>Background</h4>Early warning systems (EWS) are management tools to predict the occurrence of epidemics of infectious diseases. While climate-based EWS have been developed for malaria, no standard protocol to evaluate and compare EWS has been proposed. Additionally, there are several neglected tropical diseases whose transmission is sensitive to environmental conditions, for which no EWS have been proposed, though they represent a large burden for the affected populations.<h4>Methodology/prin ...[more]

PMID: 17989780

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Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization's (WHO) Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) Road Map for 2021-2030 was recently endorsed by all member states at the World Health Assembly in November 2020. Although only 3 of the 20 NTDs are endemic in Canada (i.e., echinococcosis, rabies, and scabies), the Canadian research community has contributed to advancing the knowledge base of all 20 NTDs. Previous research comprehensively detailed Canadian research on 11 NTDs between 1950 and 2010 using a network analysis approach. The specific objective of the present analysis was to update the publication record over the last decade (2010-2019) to include all 20 NTDs.Materials and methodsA bibliometric analysis was conducted in Scopus and Web of Science databases (for English or French articles published between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019) using appropriate search terms for each of the 20 NTDs and where at least 1 of the authors had a Canadian institution address. A 21st search was added to include publications including multiple NTDs or a discussion of NTDs in general. Following assessment of inclusion and exclusion criteria, 2 reviewers independently screened all abstracts, with discordant observations rereviewed to arrive at an agreement. Duplicates were removed.ResultsA total of 1,790 publications were retrieved (1,738 with a disease-specific NTD focus and 52 with a general NTD focus, resulting in 1,659 unique publications), giving an average of over 160 articles per year. Over 80% were classified as full-length research articles. The top 3 journals in terms of frequency were PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, PLOS ONE, and the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Authors' institutions were from all Canadian provinces. While all 20 NTDs were addressed in these publications, the 5 most commonly studied were leishmaniasis, dengue fever and chikungunya, Chagas disease, soil-transmitted helminthiases, and rabies.ConclusionsCanadian researchers across the country have contributed to the evidence base of all 20 NTDs, publishing an average of over 160 publications per year between 2010 and 2019. As WHO NTD Road Map 2021-2030 rolls out globally, the Canadian research community, in collaboration with its partners and in solidarity with people living in vulnerable circumstances in endemic regions worldwide, is well positioned to meet future research challenges so that the goal of eliminating the disease burden attributable to NTDs can be achieved.

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Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases.

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Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases.

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